Business Brief: America’s secret trade war weapon

Good morning. New York is over, and everyone’s moving to Charlotte, N.C. Why? Because the U.S. Southeast is humming. This power shift is highly relevant for Canadians, because the region’s hot economy will help the United States offset any tariff pain. That’s in focus today – followed by tick technology and credit card philosophy.

Up FirstIn the news

Spending: Congress has given its final approval to U.S. President Donald Trump’s sprawling One Big Beautiful Bill Act

Trade: Canada’s trade deficit narrows in May while exports to the U.S. decrease for a fourth straight month

Institutional investing: Brookfield sells US$690-million in private equity stakes to set up a fund targeting wealthy investors

Labour: A new report says that thousands of women who take maternity leave lose jobs despite legal protections

TodayOn our radarTrump’s big bill has passed – here’s everything you need to know. Plus, why David Shribman says that now the reckoning begins. The S&P Global Canada Composite PMI data for June to be released  In the U.S., markets are closed for Independence Day.Open this photo in gallery:

In focusA stealthy Southeast boom is giving the White House its swagger

Hi, I’m Tim Kiladze, a financial reporter and columnist based in Toronto. For months, Canadians have wondered when the U.S. economy will start to crack because of the political chaos. Yet every month unemployment barely moves. To understand why, I took a road trip through the region that’s quietly become America’s economic engine.

The idea emerged during a reporting trip to Washington, D.C., in the middle of March. At the time, Canadians were furious about President Donald Trump’s 51st state remarks, and the fear was that our closest ally, the U.S., might somehow invade. A colleague had even asked if I’d consider joining the armed forces.

After only 30 minutes on the ground in D.C., it was clear an invasion wasn’t even remotely on Americans’ radars. Canadians were having a national conniption, and our neighbours were busy making money.

The disconnect hit me again in New York, shortly after Trump launched his global trade war on so-called Liberation Day. Stock markets had tumbled and the U.S. dollar started losing value, but restaurants were packed and Manhattan was bustling.

I relayed this observation to a professional contact and she said I ought to see Savannah, Ga. The Southeast is humming, she added, and the energy is so palpable that when she flies back to Toronto, she can feel a deflated morale in the airport.

It turns out there’s something to this. Economic data makes it quite clear the Southeast is booming. The region has been growing faster than the rest of the U.S. for quite some time, and its outperformance has ramped up since 2019, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

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This isn’t about Miami or Atlanta, either. Both have been growing for years. The sleeper hits lately are places such as Charlotte, Charleston, S.C., and Savannah, all of which are bursting at the seams.

Canadians often think of the Carolinas as golf country because of destinations such as Hilton Head and Myrtle Beach, but these states are putting up stunning economic numbers. South Carolina’s gross domestic product expanded by 4.2 per cent last year.

To get a handle on the boom, I drove 500 kilometres through the U.S. Southeast – from Charlotte, to Charleston, to Savannah – talking to small business owners, bankers, industrial chief executive officers and everyday people. It might as well have been another planet.

Take tariffs. They dominate headlines here, but in the Southeast, they seem more like a theoretical idea. The advice to Canadians might be best summarized this way: It’s just three more years. Wait it out.

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The Southeast has also become a hub for young Americans. Charlotte, for instance, has evolved into baby Wall Street, and there is now a critical mass of young professionals, giving the city a vibrancy. Breweries are big business there.

For Canadians, this can be heard to hear. The pain has been so visceral. But understanding this American attitude matters a whole lot when it comes to Trump’s trade war. From afar, it can seem like the country simply can’t withstand the political chaos and the economic uncertainty. But the farther south you go, the more you appreciate just how big and diversified the U.S. economy is.

The boom in the Southeast – and Texas – has become a secret weapon in Trump’s trade war, and it allows the White House to push the limits. It’s possible the President will push too hard; an economy can only defy gravity for so long. But at the very least, the region’s resilience proves the trade war will be a long game.

ChartedNot quite out of the woods

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Morning update

Global markets eased despite record highs for Wall Street overnight, as U.S. President Donald Trump’s deadline for trade deals loomed next week. TSX futures followed sentiment lower, while Wall Street markets were closed for the Independence Day holiday.

Overseas, the pan-European STOXX 600 was down 0.72 per cent in morning trading. Britain’s FTSE 100 slid 0.3 per cent, Germany’s DAX declined 0.67 per cent and France’s CAC 40 fell 0.92 per cent.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei closed 0.06 per cent higher, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 0.64 per cent.

The Canadian dollar traded at 73.55 U.S. cents.