RTX Thrives Amid Heightened Israeli Defense Measures

Amid the eruption of the Israel-Iran conflict, defense stocks have logically rallied. RTX Corporation (NYSE:RTX) is one of the strongest stocks available to trade on the public market. The Iron Dome is directly co-developed and co-produced by RTX with Israel’s Rafael Advanced Defense Systems. RTX also works on David’s Sling interceptor missiles and the Patriot Missile systems, which are supplied by RTX to Gulf allies threatened by Iran and its proxies. RTX also benefits from consistent U.S. funding and political support, like $500 million annually for missile defense via the U.S.-Israel Memorandum of Understanding. Given the current geopolitical condition, RTX stock is well-positioned for substantial near-term upside. However, if diplomacy prevails and the hot conflicts in Iran and Ukraine ease in the medium term, RTX is unlikely to be a high-alpha holding.

As U.S. strategic support through annual military aid significantly underpins RTX’s missile-defense revenues, and there is strong U.S.-Israel cooperation, RTX shareholders are inevitably well-positioned for financial growth amid the current Israel-Iran conflict. In addition, ongoing bipartisan support in Congress for Israel’s missile defense systems further solidifies RTX’s long-term revenue visibility. However, China’s diplomatic engagements, such as brokering a Saudi-Iran detente, might limit extreme arms procurement, potentially capping RTX’s medium-term growth prospects. In my opinion, China’s approach thus far to the Iran-Israel conflict has been rational. Even though it did not support the Israeli interests of Iranian nuclear disarmament (which is unfortunate), it hasn’t encouraged escalation of the current hot conflict (which is positive). Trump has also vetoed the Israeli assassination of Iran’s supreme leader, which does open the door for de-escalation if both parties (particularly Iran) agree to stop conflict and Iran accepts U.S.-Israeli-led limitations on international nuclear proliferation.

RTX’s missile-defense segment (which is directly involved with supporting Israel) strongly contributes to the company’s nearly $100 billion defense backlog and ensures multi-year revenue stability. RTX’s operating profit margins are also solidly maintained at about 10% or more due to large-scale production of interceptors (Tamir, GEM-T missiles, Stunner interceptors) lowering per-unit costs, U.S. government co-funding reducing R&D (research and development) costs and improving overall profitability, and recurring maintenance and support contracts that are typically higher-margin than initial production contracts due to lower incremental costs. Understandably, some investors don’t want to be exposed to defense stocks, which creates some drag on returns from sentiment, but increasingly companies like RTX are viewed as necessary components of international security in light of hostile adversaries to the U.S.-led world order.

Iran’s nuclear ambitions are an unequivocal threat to Israel. Iran possesses one of the largest missile forces in the Middle East, including Shahab and Sejjil medium-range ballistic missiles capable of reaching Israel, and a growing arsenal of cruise missiles. It has also transferred shorter-range missiles and guided rockets to proxies like Hezbollah in Lebanon and militias in Gaza, Syria, and Yemen. For RTX, which is involved in many layers of Israeli defense against such threats, the implication is recurring upgrade contracts and new R&D projects to counter improved Iranian missiles. However, it’s worth reiterating that these are likely short-term exacerbated tailwinds, despite a relatively robust long-term growth horizon related to general defense. Once Iran is less of a threat (either through diplomatic resolution or regime collapse), structural growth for RTX will moderate, reinforcing the stock as a macro hedge and low-growth asset rather than an alpha-rich position.

With mid-single-digit annual revenue growth over the next five years, steady improvement in operating margins, and using RTX’s WACC (weighted average cost of capital) of 6.6% for the discount rate and a terminal growth rate of 2%, the stock appears overvalued. However, this discounted earnings approach does underestimate the importance of market sentiment. RTX can very easily deliver normalized earnings per share (“EPS”) of $6.50 in the middle of calendar 2026 in a base case. The company’s trailing 12-month (“TTM”) P/E non-GAAP ratio is currently about 25, which is up from 20 as a five-year average. This also shows overvaluation, but it is a less pronounced overvaluation than is indicated by the discounted earnings approach. Normalized EPS may only grow at 4% in Fiscal 2025 (in line with consensus estimates) but is on track to rise to 10%+ in Fiscal 2026 due to efficiency gains. In light of this, a higher P/E non-GAAP ratio compared to historical averages is valid. Based on these factors, I am inclined to view RTX stock as only moderately overvalued right now.

RTX Thrives Amid Heightened Israeli Defense Measures

Based on my valuation analysis, RTX stock will trade at $6.50 in EPS multiplied by about 24 as the P/E ratio. That leads to a 12-month price target of about $155 for RTX. The current stock price is $145, so the implied upside is about 7% in the next year. This is under what I expect from major indices like the S&P 500. As a result, I’m only moderately bullish on RTX right now. I don’t consider it an elite investment, but it does work as a macro hedge and secures portfolios with stable long-term returns in light of current geopolitical pressures.

RTX Thrives Amid Heightened Israeli Defense Measures

The bull case for RTX hinges on a serious escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict or related regional wars. Israel and the U.S. could accelerate missile-defense projects and stockpile interceptors; for instance, Iron Dome interceptor orders could double in a wartime year. In this high-demand scenario, RTX’s defense revenues could grow by 2-3% faster annually, with margins increasing by 1% more than in the base case. Under these effects, RTX’s stock price could climb as high as $175 in 12 months. Consider that a protracted Israel-Iran skirmish might lead Congress to fund an additional $1-2 billion for missile defense aid, with a significant amount of those funds flowing largely to RTX programs.

In a scenario where diplomacy prevailswith Iran’s nuclear issue resolving peacefully from here on out, Saudi and Iran maintaining cordial ties, and Israel facing reduced proxy threatsMiddle East defense demand could slow. Ongoing support contracts may continue but few new systems would be acquired. Margins could be slightly pressured if production runs are shorter or if R&D spending on new interceptors is curbed by budget cuts. Under such circumstances, it’s conceivable that RTX stock drops to around $140 in 12 months. However, RTX’s downside is buffered by its record backlog, which carries it for several years. The de-escalation scenario likely means slower upside rather than a severe contraction for RTX. However, most market participants are hoping for de-escalation for greater macro stability to support broad economic health, allowing sustainable growth for all stocks, RTX included.

As we’re entering a new age driven by AI and automation, there is a substantial chance for RTX to fall behind amid technological disruption. However, RTX is being proactive with its integration and investment in AI, so this is more of a long-term structural concern and doesn’t affect the near-term return thesis. This long-term disruption risk is not only acutely related to AI advancements but also due to significant domestic competition from Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT), Northrop Grumman (NYSE:NOC), and international competition. If China shifts toward more cooperative and democratic political principles, its companies could also pose significant defense alternatives to Western allies. However, such integration is currently not on the table and requires deep structural and political reform within China for its defense services to be accepted by democratic economies.

As examples of the growing AI competition, consider how RTX is vying with Lockheed and Northrop on a hypersonic missile interceptor program where algorithmic targeting speed will be key. If RTX captures less of the DoD’s (Department of Defense) around $1.8 billion annual AI funding pool, its defense revenue growth could dip by a percentage point or more. Over a 5-10 year horizon, AI could significantly reshape defense market share. The military AI market is projected to quadruple by 2028 to $39 billion at about a 33% CAGR (compound annual growth rate). The bear-case scenario where RTX lags in automation technology and new AI-centric startups begin taking market share aggressively would weigh substantially on RTX’s shareholder returns. At this time, I think it’s important to treat RTX stock cautiously despite short-term momentum factors; AI disruption and medium-term geopolitical stabilization could moderate growth substantially.

Lots of gurus have recently been reducing their RTX stakes, including Jeremy Grantham (Trades, Portfolio), who reduced by nearly 12% as of 2025-03-31, and Robert Olstein (Trades, Portfolio), who reduced by nearly 37% as of the same date. For the same period, Renaissance Technologies (Trades, Portfolio) increased its position by nearly 79%. Renaissance has one of the best track records in investing historyits Medallion Fund generated 39% net annualized returns after fees (66% annual gross return) from 1988 to 2018, which is among the highest sustained returns ever recorded in finance. The fact that Renaissance is buying RTX tells you something counter to my independent outlook; this is currently an elite investment in specific high-alpha portfolio strategies. RTX is also held by legendary value investor Joel Greenblatt (Trades, Portfolio) of Gotham Asset Management, with about 87,000 shares. In my opinion, while the valuation is slightly high right now, the near-term structural growth related to geopolitical tensions creates sentiment tailwinds that are difficult to ignore, which is why many gurus are keen on the stock, in my opinion.

To the contrary, insiders have not been buying the stock right now. Over three years, 598,000 shares have been sold by insiders, with only 300 bought. This shows that management is reaping rewards from the business rather than doubling down on equity growth for now. That’s understandable if many of the team have been with the company for decades and are looking to cash in now that the stock is sustainably trading at all-time highs. However, RTX’s story doesn’t end here, so the general market is certainly valid in buying RTX stock as Western defense practices become increasingly important amid a revitalized global alliance protecting from current geopolitical threats.

RTX Thrives Amid Heightened Israeli Defense Measures

In total, the unfortunate IsraelIran conflict provides short-term tailwinds for RTX stock, but once geopolitical tensions ease sustainably (which I deem inevitable, and is already indicated), I expect substantial moderation in returns. Even amid the current geopolitical climate, I anticipate only about a 7% price return for the stock over the next 12 months. Once there is less defense demand, we’re looking at 5% annual price returns or lower per year. Therefore, I think it’s important for investors to have tempered expectations with this stock. It’s more of a hedge than an alpha engine, which is why I do not own it. Despite my independent outlook, many market-leading investors own the stock, leading to the logical conclusion that there is resilient and potentially under-appreciated upside to come, largely from momentum related to current geopolitical conditions.

This article first appeared on GuruFocus.