7/5/2025
(P&GJ) — TC Energy’s (TRP) North Baja Xpress expansion has received regulatory clearance from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), advancing Mexico’s pathway to becoming an LNG exporter, according to a recent analysis by East Daley Analytics.
The approval, granted May 31, allows TC Energy to begin service on upgrades to the Ehrenberg compressor station in La Paz County, Arizona, which will increase southbound pipeline capacity to the U.S.-Mexico border by 495 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d).
RELATED: FERC Approves TC Energy’s US-Mexico North Baja Natural Gas Pipeline Expansion
According to East Daley Analytics, the North Baja Pipeline, which runs 80 miles through Arizona and California to the Mexico border, is a key part of the supply chain feeding Sempra Energy’s (SRE) Energia Costa Azul LNG facility on Mexico’s Pacific coast. The expansion of Costa Azul, which is converting the terminal from import to export capability, is expected to come online in Q3 2025.
The bi-directional pipeline can move up to 600 MMcf/d northbound and 500 MMcf/d southbound, with current flows averaging around 380 MMcf/d into Mexico. East Daley estimates the expansion will enable the line to deliver up to 430 MMcf/d to Costa Azul once liquefaction operations begin.
Still, with Costa Azul not expected to start service until late 2025, uncertainty remains about how much gas will flow through North Baja in the near term. The El Paso Natural Gas system, which interconnects at Ehrenberg, currently supplies about 745 MMcf/d to the Southern California Gas system—peaking at over 1 Bcf/d. Due to higher West Coast prices, North Baja is unlikely to divert supply from California unless premium pricing from firm LNG contracts justifies it.
As part of a broader trend, East Daley forecasts that LNG export growth across North America will substantially lift gas demand post-2025. The North Baja expansion is a crucial step in that direction.
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