Carjackings exploded nationwide between 2020 and 2022 but fell the last two years. Data from cities and states that publish it shows the plunge is continuing even faster through around midyear this year.

https://jasher.substack.com/p/carjackings-continue-to-fall-a-lot

Posted by Interesting-Arm-886

35 comments

  2. Before anyone starts making this political: Plunging started in the previous administration

  3. Oh, maybe the insurance companies will lower rates a bit now. /s

  4. Well that’s pretty clearly because of that Elantra situation where you could start the car with a USB type A and turning it. But now all those cars have had security updates… Or have been totalled.

  6. More to the point, they’ve been plummeting for the last 2.5 years.

  8. 2020-2022 was the tiktok “kia challenge” trend of stealing Hyundai and Kia cars. They spread videos of how to pop off the key slot with a USB and then turn the ignition manually, which shouldn’t be possible but Hyundais and kias didn’t have immobilizers, which are standard on almost all other cars. So there was nothing to stop someone from manually turning the ignition if the key slot had been somehow bypassed. It created such a rampant car theft spree that in many cities, car insurance companies refused to insure kias and Hyundai’s, and some cities even sued kia and Hyundai over the fiasco. I would guess that this massive drop in thefts is mostly a result of recalls to address the issue, or people just getting rid of the cars being targeted.

  9. I’ll dig up the original article if people are interested, but I read a couple months ago car jackings are almost universally done by kids. It’s a federal crime with like a 20 year mandatory minimum for adults, and no practical monetary benefit, so it’s almost exclusively done by dumbass teenagers. I think the article was about DC (?) grappling with the desire to have a fair juvenile justice system while also recognizing its super bad and maybe they shouldn’t just essentially let kids off with a warning for it. Sad and interesting

    https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2024/11/carjacking-crime-police-dc-maryland/679951/

    (Paywalled)

  10. Causation, used car index combined with inventory levels.

  11. I wonder if more and more cars auto locking doors when you move is having an impact

  12. Any correlation to immigration? We can get a good story going.

  13. Almost appears to be yet another COVID19-shutdown outlier.

    I wouldn’t be surprised if it falls to pre-COVID levels and either the trend continues it’s 2019 trajectory or approximately stabilises at some near point.

    *^((If no other major events happen in America))*

  16. Looks like they started a big decline in 2022.

    Idk for sure, but as a former researcher, I’d think carefully about the process that generated this data 

  17. “how come my city has had no change? Oh it’s only 10 in the whole year.”

  18. Does this only include data for when it was taken while driving? Because the kia usb thing being patched would make numbers plummet like this if that data is included here.

  19. Detroits numbers are widely incorrect. I’m not sure who made that up

  20. Milwaukee with 225 meanwhile detroit 40, st louis 38 is wild. The kia boyz did originate in Milwaukee around 2021 would like to see the 2022/23 numbers.

  21. Does this have anything to do with Hyundai fixing the security issue on their cars?

  22. Damn kids don’t know how to drive. In my day we all knew how to carjack!

  23. Everyone is too tired. Even too tired to commit crime.
    Godspeed!

  24. A car stolen by force doesn’t require someone to be there.

  25. I’m not entirely convinced by the first table. As I understand it we’re comparing all of 2024 to the first 5 or 6 months of 2025, and in a lot of these places the 2025 numbers are more than half the 2024 numbers.

    The author even mentions this in their article, but doesn’t seem to think six more months of data will impact the trend.

  26. They’re plummeting because it’s easier and safer to just steal parked cars now.

  27. Aren’t we only half way through 2025? Seems like 2023 to 2024 would be more helpful.

  28. I wouldn’t exactly say they’re plunging. They seem to be returning to their year over year normal after spiking.

  29. After the BBB passed, crime including car jackings will skyrocket

  30. the problem with all these crimes is, citizens cant defend themselves. if they could, these crimes would be too risky. like if you could do someone for stealing your car? people would leave their cars unlocked sitting there and just wait for someone to steal it. i can guarantee you vehicular theft would stop tomorrow.

  31. The rate follows used car prices. As used car prices go, so goes carjackings. Crime is an economic problem, he says, knowing no one cares to listen.

  33. Ubiquitous cameras, plate tracking, and GPS trackers combined to combat this scourge.

  35. How much of this is Hyundai and Kia addressing their “flaw”? They made up a massive percentage due to their garbage security systems. 

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