In a fresh article, Foreign Affairs offers a detailed examination of the often-overlooked North Korea agenda amid the geopolitical whirlwind that has consumed the early months of the Trump administration’s return to power. While President Donald Trump has remained publicly silent on Pyongyang compared to his vocal stances on Ukraine or the Middle East, the article reveals that North Korea remains a key, if quietly pursued, priority—one that could define Trump’s foreign policy legacy if successful.
The piece starts by recounting Trump’s initial attempts at diplomacy with North Korea during his first presidency. The 2019 Hanoi summit, which ended abruptly without a deal, showcased the challenges of negotiating with a regime seeking to preserve its nuclear capabilities while escaping the tightening grip of international sanctions. The “small deal” on the table would have required North Korea to dismantle key nuclear facilities in exchange for relief from UN sanctions—a compromise short of full denuclearization but one with potential for incremental progress.
However, Pyongyang emerged from the failed talks emboldened rather than weakened. Geopolitical shifts have greatly altered North Korea’s position since then. China, once a wary neighbor, has softened its stance, increasingly viewing North Korea as a strategic buffer against U.S. influence in the region. Moscow, pressed by its war in Ukraine, unexpectedly became a lucrative partner by purchasing North Korean ammunition, funneling billions into the isolated regime. A formal military alliance between Russia and North Korea in 2024, coupled with North Korean troops fighting in Ukraine, has further entrenched Pyongyang’s newfound leverage.
North Korea’s military capabilities have also expanded, with new long-range missiles capable of reaching the continental United States and an estimated arsenal of about 50 nuclear warheads. In this context, Foreign Affairs points out that Washington’s bargaining power has diminished, meaning any revived deal would likely require larger concessions to Pyongyang.
Yet, despite its growing strength, North Korea is reportedly signaling readiness to re-engage in talks—a notable development highlighted in the article. This willingness aligns with a practical understanding that the current economic relationship with Russia is unsustainable post-conflict and that overdependence on China carries its own risks. Pyongyang’s leaders appear motivated to diversify economic ties and gain relief from sanctions, with possible incentives including renewed dialogue with South Korea’s new government and even Japan.
Foreign Affairs cautions, however, that any revived “small deal” will be imperfect. It would likely preserve North Korea’s nuclear deterrent and rely on Pyongyang’s willingness to partially comply—a gamble that risks continued secrecy and potential cheating. Nonetheless, such an agreement could halt or slow further nuclear development by dismantling key infrastructure, thereby limiting North Korea’s ability to rapidly expand its arsenal.
The article also underscores North Korean skepticism toward enduring agreements with democracies, informed by past U.S. policy reversals like the abrogation of the Iran nuclear deal. Still, the current geopolitical realities—with China and Russia favoring the status quo—make a rollback of sanctions unlikely even under future U.S. administrations, thereby strengthening Pyongyang’s incentive to seize a deal with Trump’s team.
Ultimately, Foreign Affairs depicts a North Korea that has learned to leverage shifting global dynamics to its advantage. The Trump administration’s second opportunity to negotiate may involve accepting a tougher, more costly deal than before, but for Pyongyang, it might represent the best chance to gain economic autonomy and security guarantees in an uncertain region.
By Vugar Khalilov