After Q1 fall, China sustains emission reductions over the first 5 months of 2025

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1. # After Q1 fall, China sustains emission reductions over the first 5 months of 2025

   China has achieved a significant milestone in the global fight against climate change, with emissions declining 1.6% in the 12 months leading up to May 2025 compared to the previous year. This marks the first time the world’s largest emitter has reduced emissions while experiencing robust economic growth and rising power demand.

   **Key drivers of the reduction:**
   China’s massive investment in renewable energy infrastructure has been the primary catalyst. The country installed more than half of all global solar and wind capacity added in recent years, with solar installations in 2024 alone matching the EU’s entire renewable capacity. By April 2025, wind and solar generated over 25% of China’s electricity for the first time, while fossil fuel electricity generation dropped 3.6% in the first four months compared to 2024.

   **Manufacturing leadership:**
   Chinese companies dominate global green technology production, accounting for 60% of wind turbine manufacturing and 80% of solar panel production worldwide. This industrial capacity has enabled rapid domestic deployment of clean energy technologies.

   **Challenges and context:**
   Despite progress, China’s renewable energy mix remains comparable to many Western economies. The country still faces significant hurdles in meeting its Paris Agreement commitments, including a 65% reduction in carbon intensity by 2030. An interim target of 18% reduction between 2020-2025 is behind schedule, with only 7.9% achieved by end-2024.

   **Future outlook:**
   Experts suggest China may need to achieve absolute emission reductions through 2030 to meet climate goals. The country’s energy security concerns and trade tensions with the West may actually accelerate renewable deployment, as domestic clean energy reduces dependence on imports. Beijing appears positioned to take a more proactive role in global climate leadership, particularly as the Trump administration steps back from climate action.

   While this five-month trend represents encouraging progress, sustained long-term reductions will require continued ambitious policy measures and investment in clean energy infrastructure.

2. So do we still have to wait for China to make the first move on climate change anymore?

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