Oil prices still expected to decrease » Land Line Media

The Energy Information Administration adjusted its expectations for future Brent crude oil prices in its July short-term energy outlook.

While the forecast for crude oil increased to $69 per barrel in 2025, EIA still expects global oil supply to push that price down to $58 per barrel in 2026.

“The oil market is experiencing uncertainty from regional conflict, demand growth and several other factors,” EIA acting Administrator Steve Nalley said in a statement. “Our forecast for lower oil prices comes from basic economic fundamentals that when supply grows faster than demand, prices decrease.”

EIA added that lower oil prices will affect U.S. fuel prices and domestic oil production.

U.S. oil producers have slowed drilling and completion activity this year, according to EIA.

A drop from an all-time high of 13.5 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2025 to 13.3 million barrels per day by the fourth quarter of 2026 is forecast.

The national average price per gallon of diesel is forecast to increase to $3.67 in the third quarter before dropping to $3.59 per gallon at the end of 2025. That average is expected to stay below $3.60 per gallon through the third quarter of 2026.

EIA’s weekly diesel report released on Monday, July 7 said the national average was $3.739 per gallon.

Diesel prices are updated daily on this Land Line resources page.

U.S. average retail prices for July 8, 2025:

⛽️ Regular grade #gasoline: $3.13/gallon
⛽️ On-highway #diesel: $3.74/gallon #gaspriceshttps://t.co/NIJ3L1odNq

— EIA (@EIAgov) July 8, 2025

Of note, S&P Global projects reduced tariffs on imports from China compared to June’s. Tariffs on imports from other countries are expected to remain at 10% after the 90-day pause expires in July, EIA said.