The cryptocurrency market moves in distinct cycles, alternating between periods where Bitcoin dominates and phases where alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins) take center stage. For traders and investors, understanding these cycles can mean the difference between catching massive gains and missing out on some of the most profitable opportunities in crypto.
The Altcoin Season Index has emerged as the definitive metric for identifying these market phases, providing a data-driven approach to answering one of crypto’s most important questions: Are we in Altseason yet?
What is the Altcoin Season Index?
The Altcoin Season Index is a quantitative measure that determines whether the cryptocurrency market is in “Altcoin Season”—a period when altcoins collectively outperform Bitcoin. The index evaluates the performance of the top 50 to 100 cryptocurrencies (excluding stablecoins and asset-backed tokens) over a rolling 90-day period.
The 75% Rule
The index operates on a simple but powerful principle: if 75% or more of the tracked altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin over the past 90 days, the market is considered to be in Altcoin Season. Conversely, if 25% or fewer altcoins outperform Bitcoin, it’s classified as Bitcoin Season.
Index Scaling
The metric is typically scaled from 1 to 100, where:
Above 75: Strong Altcoin Season
25-75: Mixed market conditions
Below 25: Bitcoin Season
Current Market Status
As of July 2025, the index sits at a relatively low 16-24, indicating that only 17 out of 100 top coins are outperforming Bitcoin over the last 90 days. This suggests the market is currently in Bitcoin Season, with Bitcoin dominance taking precedence over altcoin performance.
Understanding Altcoin Bull Seasons (Altseason)
An Altcoin Bull Season, commonly called “Altseason,” represents more than just statistical outperformance—it’s a period of intense market activity where altcoins experience rapid and significant price increases that often dwarf Bitcoin’s gains.
Characteristics of Altseason
During these periods, several key dynamics emerge:
Capital Rotation: Investors shift funds from Bitcoin to altcoins, seeking higher returns and diversification opportunities.
FOMO Dynamics: Fear of missing out drives additional buying pressure as investors chase rapidly appreciating altcoins.
Increased Trading Volumes: Altcoin trading volumes surge dramatically, sometimes exceeding Bitcoin’s volume.
Sector Rotations: Different altcoin categories (DeFi, memes, layer-1s, etc.) may take turns leading the market.
Compressed Time Frames: Altseasons typically last weeks to months, not years, making timing crucial for maximizing gains.
Historical Context: Learning from Past Cycles
The 2020-2021 Bull Run
The most recent significant Altseason occurred during the 2020-2021 bull market, providing valuable insights into how these cycles develop:
Bitcoin Dominance Drop: Bitcoin’s market dominance fell from 70% to 38%
Market Cap Explosion: Total cryptocurrency market capitalization doubled
Index Peak: The Altcoin Season Index reached 98 on April 16, 2021
Sector Breakouts: DeFi tokens, NFTs, and meme coins like Dogecoin and Shiba Inu saw unprecedented growth
The Pattern Recognition
Historical analysis reveals that Altseasons often follow a predictable pattern:
Bitcoin experiences a significant price run-up
Bitcoin price stabilizes or consolidates
Investors begin seeking higher returns in altcoins
Capital rotation accelerates, driving altcoin prices higher
FOMO amplifies the trend until market exhaustion
The Methodology: How Different Platforms Calculate the Index
While the core concept remains consistent, different platforms use slightly varying methodologies:
Blockchain Center Approach
Tracks top 50 coins
Excludes stablecoins and asset-backed tokens
Uses 75% threshold for Altseason determination
90-day rolling performance window
CoinMarketCap Method
Monitors top 100 coins
Same exclusions for stablecoins and wrapped tokens
Applies identical 75% threshold
Daily refresh of calculations
Excluded Assets
Most platforms exclude:
Stablecoins (USDT, USDC, DAI)
Asset-backed wrapper tokens (WBTC, stETH, cLINK)
These exclusions ensure the index reflects actual altcoin performance rather than pegged assets
The Limitations: Why the Index Isn’t Perfect
Reactive Nature
The Altcoin Season Index is inherently reactive, confirming Altseason after it has already begun. This lag can mean missing optimal entry points, as the best gains often occur in the early stages of altcoin runs.
Methodology Variations
Different platforms using varying numbers of coins (50 vs. 100) and slightly different exclusion criteria can lead to discrepancies in index values, potentially causing confusion for traders.
Market Evolution
The cryptocurrency market continues to evolve rapidly. New asset classes, changing market structures, and shifting investor behavior may require adjustments to the index methodology over time.
Historical Bias
Past performance patterns don’t guarantee future results. Market conditions, regulatory changes, and technological developments can alter traditional cycle patterns.
Complementary Indicators: Building a Complete Picture
Smart traders don’t rely solely on the Altcoin Season Index. Instead, they combine it with other leading and lagging indicators:
Bitcoin Dominance
Bitcoin’s market cap share relative to the total crypto market often provides earlier signals than the Altcoin Season Index. Declining Bitcoin dominance frequently precedes Altseason.
Trading Volume Ratios
Comparing total altcoin trading volume to Bitcoin’s volume can indicate growing interest in altcoins before it shows up in price performance.
Stablecoin Reserves
Spikes in stablecoin reserves, particularly Tether (USDT), can signal prepared buying power ready to flow into altcoins. Historical data shows increased stablecoin reserves often coincide with altcoin rallies.
Social Sentiment Metrics
Social media buzz, Google search trends, and community engagement levels can provide early indicators of shifting investor interest toward altcoins.
Strategic Implications for Traders and Investors
Position Sizing During Different Seasons
Understanding market cycles can inform portfolio allocation strategies:
During Bitcoin Season (Index
Maintain higher Bitcoin allocation
Research and accumulate quality altcoins at lower prices
Focus on fundamental analysis for long-term holds
During Mixed Markets (Index 25-75)
Balanced approach between Bitcoin and altcoins
Monitor for signals indicating direction change
Implement risk management strategies
During Altseason (Index > 75)
Consider taking profits on altcoin positions
Remain cautious of FOMO-driven investments
Prepare for potential cycle reversal
Risk Management in Volatile Cycles
The Importance of Timing
Altseasons can be incredibly profitable but also extremely volatile. Proper risk management becomes crucial:
Entry Strategy
Avoid chasing pumps when the index is already high
Use dollar-cost averaging during accumulation phases
Set clear entry and exit criteria before making trades
Exit Strategy
Take profits systematically during strong altcoin performance
Don’t assume Altseason will continue indefinitely
Maintain discipline even during FOMO periods
Portfolio Diversification
Spread risk across different altcoin categories
Maintain some Bitcoin allocation even during Altseason
Consider correlation risks between altcoins
Current Market Analysis: Where We Stand in July 2025
Bitcoin Season Indicators
Current market conditions suggest we’re in a Bitcoin-dominated phase:
Altcoin Season Index: 16-24
Only 17 out of 100 top coins outperforming Bitcoin
Bitcoin dominance likely increasing
What This Means for Investors
Quality altcoins may be available at attractive prices
Patience required for next Altseason development
Focus on fundamental research and accumulation strategies
Potential Catalysts for Change
Several factors could shift the market toward Altseason:
Bitcoin price stabilization after recent movements
Increased institutional adoption of altcoins
Regulatory clarity for specific altcoin categories
Technological breakthroughs in particular sectors
Looking Ahead: Preparing for the Next Altseason
Building Watchlists
Use the current Bitcoin Season to research and identify promising altcoins:
Focus on projects with strong fundamentals
Consider different sectors (DeFi, Layer-1s, gaming, etc.)
Monitor development activity and community growth
Accumulation Strategies
Dollar-cost average into quality projects
Set price alerts for significant movements
Maintain discipline during accumulation phases
Risk Preparation
Plan exit strategies before entering positions
Set realistic profit targets
Maintain emergency funds for unexpected opportunities
The Psychology of Market Cycles
Emotional Challenges
Different market phases present unique psychological challenges:
During Bitcoin Season
Patience as altcoins underperform
Resistance to FOMO on Bitcoin gains
Maintaining conviction in altcoin research
During Altseason
Greed management during rapid gains
Resistance to overtrading
Maintaining profit-taking discipline
Cycle Transitions
Recognizing when conditions are changing
Adapting strategies to new market phases
Avoiding anchoring to past performance
Conclusion: Navigating the Cycles
The Altcoin Season Index serves as a valuable tool for understanding cryptocurrency market cycles, but it’s most effective when combined with other indicators and sound investment principles. While the index can confirm when Altseason is occurring, successful crypto investors focus on preparation, patience, and disciplined execution regardless of current market conditions.
As we navigate the current Bitcoin Season in July 2025, remember that markets are cyclical. Today’s underperforming altcoins may become tomorrow’s breakout stars, while maintaining perspective on risk management and realistic expectations remains crucial for long-term success.
The key to profiting from these cycles isn’t just knowing when Altseason arrives—it’s being prepared for it before it does. By understanding the Altcoin Season Index, monitoring complementary indicators, and maintaining disciplined investment strategies, traders and investors can position themselves to benefit from the inevitable shifts in cryptocurrency market dynamics.
Whether you’re a seasoned trader or new to crypto, the Altcoin Season Index provides a data-driven framework for understanding one of the most important dynamics in cryptocurrency markets. Use it wisely, combine it with other analysis tools, and remember that in the volatile world of cryptocurrency, preparation and patience often matter more than perfect timing.