If Nutella has a permanent place in your pantry, you might want to grab an extra jar. Between a crop disaster in Turkey and a fresh round of U.S. trade tariffs, the beloved hazelnut spread could be one of the next items to see a bump in price.
Here’s what’s going on.
Nutella is made by Ferrero, the Italian company that’s been producing it since the 1960s. One of its key ingredients, hazelnuts, mostly comes from Turkey, which grows more than 65% of the global supply. But this past April, a major frost hit Turkey’s growing regions and wiped out a big portion of the harvest.
“One of the biggest agricultural frost events since 2014,” is how Ibrahim Yumakli, Turkey’s agriculture minister, described it. And it’s already affecting the market: wholesale hazelnut prices jumped 30%, according to the agricultural data firm Expana.
Ferrero has said they don’t expect this to disrupt Nutella production, and sure, you’ll still find it on the shelf, but that doesn’t mean it won’t get more expensive. The price of ingredients like hazelnuts doesn’t usually rise quietly. Sooner or later, those costs will show up at the checkout counter.
Meanwhile, food prices in the United States are already up 23.6% since 2020, according to the USDA. A mix of supply chain problems, inflation, and lingering effects of COVID-19 have all pushed grocery bills higher. And now, there’s a new layer of pressure: Donald Trump’s tariffs.
More Tariffs, More Trouble
Back in April, Trump rolled out a new round of tariffs on imported goods. While Nutella may not be directly affected, imported ingredients, shipping, and other related costs could still take a hit. And when the U.S. imports more than $330 billion worth of goods in a single year, as it did in 2024, even small added costs ripple quickly.
According to the Yale Budget Lab, those tariffs could push grocery prices up another 2.6% in the near term. That would bring prices to about 3% higher than they were before the policy was announced.
So while Nutella isn’t the only thing at risk of getting more expensive, it’s definitely one of the more noticeable ones. And let’s be honest, it’s a small luxury a lot of people aren’t ready to give up.
Higher prices are likely just around the corner.
Initially, the new tariffs were supposed to kick in on July 9, but the Trump administration extended the deadline to August 1, giving countries without finalized trade deals a little more time. But the pause won’t last forever, and most businesses know what’s coming.
If costs go up, producers, shippers, and retailers aren’t going to just eat those losses. They’re going to pass them on. Sometimes it happens slowly, other times all at once. But either way, we will end up feeling it at the checkout.
Nutella Prices Are Changing — But There’s No Need to Panic
If Nutella is part of your weekly grocery routine, this might be a good time to stay aware of what’s happening, not because shelves are going empty, but because small price shifts tend to sneak in when you’re not looking.
Ferrero says production is steady, and there’s no sign of a shortage. But between rising ingredient costs and upcoming tariffs, price bumps are likely. Given this scenario, experts recommend stocking up on basic goods before August 1. And if you’re a Nutella fan, it might not be a bad time to add an extra jar or two to your pantry.
Because whether it’s a weather event in Turkey or a trade move in D.C., even everyday staples like Nutella aren’t immune. Eventually, it all shows up, one way or another, on your grocery receipt.