White House visit: ‘For Netanyahu the issue is mostly about domestic politics, not Israeli security’

White House visit: ‘For Netanyahu the issue is mostly about domestic politics, not Israeli security’

Well, for more on this story, we can bring in Dr. Aie Goldberg, who’s an expert in Middle Eastern studies. Thank you very much for speaking to us on France 24. I want to start then by what you think will come out of this meeting between Netanyahu and Trump. Will the US president pressure the prime minister to expedite a ceasefire deal? Oh, I have no doubt the US president will try his best to force Netanyahu into a ceasefire deal. There’s a good chance that he might succeed. Trump is the only one who gets to tell Netanyahu what to do at this stage. Well, there’s still this sticking point though of a withdrawal, a full withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza, which is a key demand of Hamas. So, do you does that mean that you think that one side will eventually cave on this? Well, here’s the thing for Netanyahu, the issue is mostly about domestic politics. It’s not about Israeli security. He has to sell this deal as inevitable to his right-wing coalition. Or he might be courageous enough to gamble that if he makes a deal and calls for a snap election, he will win as the prime minister who fought the war but managed to bring the deal. Uh in both cases, I think the political stakes favor Netanyahu’s acceptance of the deal. through 60 days of negotiations, Israel will or Netanyahu will be able to water down the inconvenient truth of a full withdrawal uh or perhaps uh demonstrate how his right-wing settler partners are irrelevant to whatever comes next. In any case, that’s the Netanyahu time span. He usually plans no more than a month ahead. So, I have no doubt that he’s thinking along these lines. Well, give us a sense then of what it’s what the mood is like among Israelis. I mean, the majority of them desperately want to see a return of hostages and an end to this war. Um, his far-right ministers, as you mentioned, they seem to be in the minority here in wanting to continue uh fighting. But then on the other hand, Netanyahu is very unpopular still with allegations of corruption that he’s fighting uh in court. So, um what do you think is really the temperature there in Israel? Let’s separate uh the desire most Israelis have to see the hostages return to active support for the end of the war, especially if that end includes a full withdrawal and a sense that things are returning to the way they were before October 7th. Me. Um so most Israelis certainly support a hostage deal. Most Israelis are not quite clear on what they see or what they support with to the war itself. uh the right-wing settlers want to fight. Their power is limited certainly uh in electoral terms. Netanyahu doesn’t depend on them and he will receive the backing of his opposition should he bring a deal or perhaps attempt to have it approved by the Israeli parliament because of this consensus. As far as Netanyahu’s lack of popularity, again, he is unpopular. He is believed to be fighting for his life. He is believed to be using national resources to prolong his hold on power. But still, Israelis understand what they call the war in Gaza to be inevitable, to be something that ensures Israeli security. They supported Netanyahu’s war in Iran despite its problematic and dubious achievements, if they can even be called that. And should Israelis be faced with the dilemma of who to vote for, there’s no reason to assume they won’t vote for the original rather than for a pale epig, one of the opposition figures who will basically promise them the same thing, war upon war upon war. Well, you said the the results of the joint USIsraeli air strikes were dubious there in Iran. Uh but Netanyahu has obviously hailed this as a huge success and his visit to Washington this Monday was expected to be largely a victory lap after those strikes. Do you think that that’s the case? Oh, I really don’t. I think his visit is one where Trump will be exerting personal one-on-one pressure in the Oval Office. Uh the victory, I think, uh has already been demonstrated to be again dubious. It’s not clear at all that Israel stopped the Iranian nuclear program or even set it back by no you know more than months. Uh so I actually think what’s going to happen is that Netanyahu is finally going to get called into the principal’s office and get a stern talking to. I don’t think it’s going to be a victory lap even if the president and the prime minister in their joint press appearances stress these attacks on Iran. That was certainly not what happened in the field. And otherwise, what else do you think we can expect to come out of this meeting? There’s been talks about the possibility of normalizing ties with Lebanon, Syria, and Saudi Arabia. Do you think that that’s real realistic at this time? I doubt we’ll hear anything about Saudi Arabia. Uh there are certainly negotiations with Lebanon and Syria. I don’t think they’ve matured to the degree where both countries are ready to announce normalization. In any way, I think any kind of normalization of Israel’s relations with its neighbors or with other countries in the Middle East is heavily dependent on an end to the war in Gaza, which as you said before we began our conversation is the one thing Israel is not willing to commit to at the moment. Uh again, I think this will have to undergo the crucible of time. It’ll take 60 days. Uh Israelis have a very short memory. Netanyahu will claim he has to accept this deal. his rightwing partners will be angry but will have to do their own electoral math if they don’t stick with him. They haven’t got any hope of being influential after the next election. So a lot of things can happen in 60 days. Netanyahu is a very very competent political manipulator. I believe he’s counting on that length of time to uh get this deal through but also to maintain his support. All right, Dr. Oie Goldberg, thank you very much for your analysis. We’ll have to leave it there. Thank you for having me.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is due to meet with US President Donald Trump at the White House on Monday, while Israeli officials hold indirect talks with Hamas, aimed at a U.S.-brokered Gaza hostage-release and ceasefire deal. For in-depth analysis and a deeper perspective, FRANCE 24’s Carys Garland welcomes Dr. Ori GOLDBERG, Israeli author and political commentator.
#Gaza #Netanyahu #Trump

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