Business news live: Rachel Reeves commits to non-negotiable fiscal rules ahead of Mansion House speech

Good morning and welcome to another week of action on The Independent’s rolling live business blog.

There’s lots coming this week, from stock market reaction to UK inflation data, but we start it all in the money markets where the pound is dropping – but bitcoin is heading up.

Bitcoin has been on a tear of late – it’s up 30 per cent this year, 15 per cent this month, almost ten per cent in the last week… and up once again overnight, setting a new all-time high in the process.

Having hovered around $118,000 most of the weekend, the latest surge has taken it to a high point of around $122,450.

It seems to be settling so far just above the $122,000 mark.

From a year ago today it is up 100.9 per cent – almost exactly doubling in that period.

With interest rates at 4.25 per cent, there have been calls for the Bank of England to lower the base rate more quickly from some quarters.

Andrew Bailey, the BoE governor, says that other people have asked why they are coming down at all however, given inflation remains stuck well above the target rate at 3.4 per cent.

It’s a constant battle, but the hint has been left this time that they could come down a notch again next month as businesses tighten expenses via the jobs market.

Bailey said: “I really do believe the path is downward but we continue to use the words ‘gradual and careful’. I think we’re getting more consistently the story that [businesses], if you take the national insurance change, are adjusting via the labour market. I don’t think we’re getting to a tipping point in the sense that it’s ­becoming a sort of flood.”

Donald Trump announced 30 per cent tariffs on EU products over the weekend, as well as hitting Mexico with the same number.

“We have had years to discuss our trading relationship with The European Union, and we have concluded we must move away from these long-term, large, and persistent, trade Deficits, engendered by your tariff, and non-Tariff, policies, and trade barriers,” the US president wrote on social media.

“Our relationship has been, unfortunately, far from reciprocal.”

On the back of that tariff from the US, the EU look ready to respond in kind.

Italy’s foreign minister Antonio Tajani said to Il Messaggero: “Tariffs hurt every one, starting with the United States.

“If stock markets fall that puts at risk the pensions and the savings of the Americans.”

He also said there was a list of €21bn (£18bn) worth of US goods ready to be tariffed.

The EU will delay any retaliation until US tariffs come into effect, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen has said.

“The United States has sent us a letter with measures that would come into effect unless there is a negotiated solution, so we will therefore also extend the suspension of our countermeasures until early August,” she explained,

“At the same time, we will continue to prepare for the countermeasures so we’re fully prepared.”

Denmark’s foreign minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen has said the EU must “prepare for war” with the US over trade deals.

“We shouldn’t impose countermeasures at this stage, but we should prepare to be ready to use all the tools in the toolbox,” he said.

“So we want a deal, but there’s an old saying: ‘If you want peace, you have to prepare for war.’”

EU trade commissioner has said Maros Sefcovic added: “The feeling on our side was that we are very close to an agreement.”

Stocks and indices in European countries are falling on Monday, following that earlier news of a 30 per cent tariff to be imposed by the US.

Germany’s DAX is down 0.8 per cent, France’s CAC 40 is down 0.65 per cent and the Euro is down almost 0.1 per cent against the US dollar.

But the FTSE 100 is heading in the opposite direction – up 0.2 per cent and with the AIM slightly higher than that.

The UK already has a separate deal with the US in place with some exemptions and specific rates in place beyond a base 10 per cent tariff.

British companies have a planning advantage over their European counterparts for the rest of summer, says AJ Bell investment analyst Dan Coatsworth.

Tariff speculation, announcements and step-backs brought a lot of volatility to markets and uncertainty to the actual businesses within them across April and May.

Now that’s expected to be the case once more for companies operating in the export sphere between EU and US.

“The week begins with tariffs once again dominating the agenda for financial markets as US president Donald Trump suggests imports from Mexico and the European Union will be hit by levies of 30% from the beginning of August,” he said.

“That has put indices in mainland Europe under significant pressure, although the FTSE 100 stood out for its more resilient performance as the UK index moved 0.3% higher. With the UK having already reached an agreement on a 10% tariff for trade with the US, with exemptions for certain industries, the country is now seen to have an advantage in terms of trade relations.

“Unlike their counterparts across the Channel, British companies should be able to operate with greater certainty around trade, and exports may be diverted through the UK. This might act as a push for foreign companies to invest in manufacturing and logistics facilities in the UK.

“The last few months have taught us that a lot can change on a daily basis, let alone over several weeks, so investors will be watching closely to see where we land by 1 August.”