The real stalking horse to watch out for as Trump’s successor is not Vice President JD Vance. It is “Secretary of Everything” Marco Rubio. 

The 2028 presidential election in the United States is still three years away, with a contentious midterm election standing in the way. But the scuttlebutt is already afoot as to who in the Republican Party will succeed President Donald Trump—who, after all, has dominated the GOP for nearly a decade.

When Trump won the presidency for a second time in November 2024, many political junkies simply assumed that Vice President JD Vance was the heir apparent. In many respects, this remains the case; last month, Vance “surged” in polls as a possible frontrunner in the GOP primary for 2028.

But in recent months, Vance has fallen away from the public eye, while Marco Rubio has been elevated into the dual roles of Secretary of State and White House National Security Advisor—making him the first person to simultaneously hold both roles since Henry Kissinger.

Meet Marco Rubio, Secretary of Everything 

With both the State Department and the NSC under his purview—as well as the remnants of USAID and the National Archives—Rubio has been described as the “secretary of everything.” Incidentally, that term was borrowed from Trump’s first administration; it was originally used to derisively describe Jared Kushner, whose portfolio while working in the White House ranged from prison reform to trade policy to Middle East peace.

At meetings with the president, Rubio is given prime billing. Indeed, the president seems to genuinely enjoy Rubio’s presence. Meanwhile, Vance—who, remember, is the man presumed to be Trump’s heir apparent—is nowhere to be seen. Given Trump’s fixation on ratings and public appearances, visibility is a key indicator of status. Rubio has it. Of course, there are still three years left. But the way that Rubio has risen to become the secretary of everything means that all other possible contenders are on softer footing.

Comparing Rubio and Vance, the former Florida senator has a track record of being part of the Washington establishment. Having spent the early phase of his career as an acolyte of the late Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), a prominent neoconservative and early Trump foil, Rubio has always been associated with the war hawks of the Right. Indeed, Rubio continues to align himself and his personnel with the more hawkish elements of the Republican Party. 

Vance, on the other hand, has taken a different approach. Although a Marine veteran and Yale Law School graduate, Vance has billed himself as a non-interventionist more interested in culture wars than real ones. This places him closer than Rubio to Trump’s loyal base of supporters, who are overwhelmingly dedicated non-interventionists.

Has Vance Silently Fallen from Trump’s Grace?

Vance may look like a creature of DC, but he does not act or speak like them. Instead, the vice president emanates from the high-tech world of Peter Thiel, the gonzo tech guru who has for years donated to Trump and Trump-friendly candidates—all while building a high-tech surveillance state.

Today, this connection might be doing Vance more harm than good. During the 2024 campaign, Vance’s ties to Big Tech, notably the so-called “PayPal Mafia”—Thiel, David Sacks, Elon Musk, and others associated with that company—elevated him above all other contenders for Trump’s vice-presidential pick. One year later, Trump has had an epic fallout with Elon Musk, and by extension many of Elon’s friends from Big Tech.

Fairly or not, Vance is seen as Thiel’s and Musk’s man in the administration—and now that Trump and Musk are at war with each other, Vance is in an uncomfortable position. The president has diminished other “Broligarchs” affiliated with Musk since the falling-out. David Sacks, the White House “crypto czar,” has felt the negative reverberations of the fallout between the president and Musk. Anyone affiliated with Muskworld has inherently been reduced in stature as a result of the titanic feud.

Indeed, this might explain why Vance has maintained a relatively low profile in recent weeks. Like Sacks, he wants to maintain his position by avoiding the two warring parties entirely, hoping for more stability in the relationship to take hold in the long term.

Nor is the Trump-Musk fallout the only issue where Vance has found himself on the opposite side of Trump in recent weeks. Notably, during the preparations for “Operation Midnight Hammer,” America’s airstrikes on Iran, Vance stuck his neck out and sided with Tulsi Gabbard, Trump’s embattled Director of National Intelligence—who publicly opposed the strikes and questioned their strategic underpinning.

All the Signs Are Pointing in Rubio’s Direction

At one of the many raucous Oval Office meetings that has come to define Trump’s second term in office, the president was asked point blank by a reporter as to whether or not he would support a Vance candidacy in 2028. 

Trump, visibly annoyed, would not commit. He then looked over at Marco Rubio, who was seated on the white couch beside Vance, and proceeded to undercut Vance by saying that he “liked” Rubio for the position. Ever since that meeting, Vance has been seen less on camera and has, for all intents and purposes, maintained a low profile.

In short, Trump has done everything in his power to tamp down expectations that Vance would be his natural successor, while doing his best to elevate Rubio—both in terms of press coverage as well as responsibilities in the White House.

There’s the added element of people like current White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles being deeply involved in the mechanics of White House personnel moves. Wiles, known in some circles as the “Ice Maiden,” cut her teeth as a Republican Party political consultant in Florida. One of her longtime allies in the Sunshine State was none other than Rubio, and she has done everything in her power to ensure that Rubio was given a massive portfolio since joining the administration.

And since Wiles became such a prominent figure in Trump’s White House, Trump himself has started taking on more of Rubio’s policy preferences—ranging from overt hawkishness against Russia over Ukraine to bombing Iran’s nuclear weapons facilities. 

All this lends credence to the notion that the real stalking horse to watch out for 2028 is not Vance. It is Rubio. 

In other words, hardcore MAGA adherents are likely about to watch their political movement become co-opted by the Republican establishment. Whether that political movement can carry its chosen candidate, probably Rubio, to victory remains to be seen.

About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert

Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest as well as a contributor at Popular Mechanics, who consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, the Asia Times, and countless others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.

Image: Shutterstock / Brian Jason.