US President Donald Trump’s threat to impose 100% secondary tariffs on Russia has put the spotlight on India, the largest importer of Russian crude oil. However, New Delhi is unfazed after Union Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister Hardeep Singh Puri played down the concerns, hinting at seeking alternative energy supplies. 

“If something happens, we will deal with it,” Puri said, highlighting how India significantly broadened its oil import network. “India has diversified the sources of supplies from 27 to 40 countries now” he said. 

Russia accounted for 38% of the crude oil that India imported.  In April 2025, India’s crude imports from Russia reached nearly 2 million barrels per day, marking a two-year high. If Russian supplies are affection, Indian Oil Corporation has announced plans to go back to its old template when Russian supplies to India were below 2%.

While countries like Brazil and Canada, and newer suppliers like Guyana, are highlighted as potential alternatives, economic analysts believe the US could push its oil to India.  

During January-June 2025, India imported nearly 271,000 barrels a day (b/d) of crude oil from the US, which is almost a 51% increase from 180,000 b/d during the same period last year, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights. 

Besides, India has also stated that it plans to increase annual consumption of US energy from $15 billion to $25 billion, including LNG. This could also allay the US concerns about the trade deficit with 

Last month, around 11.2 million barrels of crude arrived in India from the US in June, thanks to drop in prices in the West Texas Intermediate benchmark. Many Asian buyers turned to US crude as a negotiating tool o reduce the reciprocal tariffs.

According to Vivek Mishra, deputy director of strategic studies at the Observer Research Foundation, the US could treat this as an opportunity. “If secondary sanctions do kick in, it will be an opportunity for the US to sell its oil,” he told the South China Morning Post (SCMP). 

But, the chances of US oil replacing Russia are sparse, analysts believe. 

Priya Walia, vice-president of commodity markets for oil at Rystad Energy, told SCMP that the potential for such oil sales to India may be limited. “The US primarily produced light sweet crude grade oil, unlike the medium sour and light sour Russian oil imported by India for its refinery operations,” Walia said. “While some incremental uptick in US oil flows may occur, it is unlikely to exceed 0.5 million barrels per day,” she added.