Oil and gas production on the UK Continental Shelf has been falling for years, and the outlook is fairly grim compared with Norway, which has raised its output slightly since 2019 and is forecasting only limited decline over the next few years. The UK’s year-old Labour government has raised offshore taxes and is pursuing policies that favor renewable and nuclear power. In contrast, Oslo offers tax breaks for new developments as part of a “develop, not dismantle” policy toward the country’s offshore oil and gas sector, which remains a linchpin of its economy. The UK produced 592,000 barrels per day of crude oil and condensate and 30.7 billion cubic meters of gas last year — volumes dwarfed by Norway, which produced more than 1.6 million b/d liquids and over 112 Bcm of gas. UK oil and gas output peaked in 1999, while Norway’s production only started to slip in 2004. Forecasts vary, but the UK North Sea Transition Authority expects UK oil and gas production to be less than half of 2021 levels by 2030, while the Norwegian Offshore Directorate estimates a drop of slightly more than 20% from the 2004 peak by 2029.
