The All Blacks may have already won the series but they will have to brace themselves for a France onslaught with Fabien Galthie very much targeting the final match of the tour.
After a difficult opening encounter, which saw Les Bleus almost cause a huge shock, New Zealand shook off that rust to emerge comfortable victors in Wellington to make it two from two.
Having found their rhythm in the capital, some may think that another big win is on the way against an understrength French outfit, even with Scott Robertson himself making mass changes and giving some fringe players a chance.
However, you get the sense that Les Bleus have been gearing up for the third Test in Hamilton. While Robertson has made several changes to his side, leaving out the likes of Cam Roigard, Codie Taylor and Jordie Barrett from his starting XV, the visitors have named their strongest team of the tour.
It was never about winning the series for Galthie but building depth ahead of the 2027 Rugby World Cup and for the third contest they have selected some of the best performers from the two games so far.
The All Blacks remain heavy favourites and we reiterate what was stated prior to the tour – it would be an embarrassment should they lose any of these Tests – but it should be much closer than the blowout at Sky Stadium.
A brave person may even predict a French victory. We’re not quite sure we’re at that stage, but there is just a sense that, while the hosts experiment by rotating, Les Bleus are looking for one last hurrah before their season ends.
Where the game will be won
The All Blacks dominated most forward facets in the second Test, with the maul particularly effective, and France’s challenge will be to prevent that from happening this weekend. In the first half, the visitors were overwhelmed by New Zealand, who dominated physically and turned them around with their accurate kicking game. Les Bleus were much better in the second period, however, when the replacements – most of whom played in the Dunedin opener – came on to stem the tide.
With Galthie picking a stronger team for Saturday, they will hope the things that went well under the roof at Forsyth Barr Stadium – namely defence, breakdown and their kicking/aerial game – are repeated in Hamilton. If so, they have a real chance of causing an upset against a New Zealand outfit that have rotated significantly.
The hosts are somewhat bolstered by Rieko Ioane’s late withdrawal, with Will Jordan coming in to give them more solidity under the high ball but, in a rather ironic twist, you could argue that the visitors have the better continuity heading into the third Test. It will therefore be interesting to see whether this seemingly weaker All Blacks outfit can put into place the things that worked so well last weekend.
There is continuity to some degree, with Robertson stacking the backline with Chiefs on their home turf, particularly at half-back and in the midfield, to give them a semblance of continuity. Equally, they have kept the impressive lock pairing from the second match and, of course, the presence of Ardie Savea makes any team a formidable prospect.
What happened in the second Test
What they said
All Blacks boss Robertson explained why it was important to rotate the team “respectfully” after announcing their 23 for the third and final Test.
“It was important to us to look at this team respectfully,” Robertson said.
“The French have used a lot of players. They’re a fierce opponent and a proud opponent. It’s going to be a hell of a week, so we’ve got the right combination and balance for this group to respect them and put out a performance.
“It’s that ability to trust the young fella, set him up to be successful and away he goes.
“When we named [the team] on Tuesday, the energy in the room was awesome. It showed that everyone had played their little part and gets to do that on the field.”
Despite the French players coming to the end of another long and arduous season, captain Gael Fickou insists that they will be up for the fight.
“Our leverage is to win here, nothing else. I’m not focused on the media or their assumptions. What matters to me is winning in New Zealand, a rugby land par excellence,” Fickou said.
“There’s physical and mental wear and tear, but the energy is there. Tomorrow, as soon as we put on the French jersey, we’ll be at 100 per cent.
“We really want to finish well and end on a high note. We know it’s going to be a big fight in Hamilton but we’ve prepared for it.”
Players to watch
There is plenty of excitement around full-back Ruben Love, who scored two tries on his All Blacks debut last year and took that form into the 2025 Super Rugby Pacific season. In the mould of Beauden Barrett and Damian McKenzie, Love can play both fly-half and full-back but, at the moment, 15 is very much the jersey he is striving for. Obviously, Jordan appears to have locked that down for now, but an outstanding performance could always force a rethink.
Love will seek to link well with McKenzie, who takes the fly-half reins following Beauden Barrett’s injury. There is no doubt that Robertson sees Barrett as the first choice 10, and the 34-year-old’s excellent displays in the victories over France will have done nothing to change his mind, but a fine effort from his rival in Hamilton just might. He has to show the control to go with his excellent attacking game, like he did in Ireland in the 2024 end-of-year series, if he is to impress the coaches.
It is also a big game for Anton Lienert-Brown, with the centre making his first appearance since late-April. Lienert-Brown knows that Jordie Barrett has the 12 shirt locked down, while he has also seen the emergence of Timoci Tavatavanawai and Chiefs team-mate Quinn Tupaea, who he starts alongside in Hamilton. Outside centre may therefore be Lienert-Brown’s best bet going forward and he will hope to show his class on Saturday.
Continuing the Chiefs theme and Luke Jacobson and Samipeni Finau get an opportunity in the back-row. It is a particularly important match for Finau, who has been overlooked for that blindside shirt for the first two Tests, but Tupou Vaa’i’s concussions provides him with a chance to lay down a marker ahead of the Rugby Championship.
As for France, they have brought back many of those that impressed in Test one, including number eight Mickael Guillard. The powerful forward, who usually plays at lock, has enjoyed a breakthrough 2024/25, impressing in the Six Nations before very much looking at home in esteemed company in Hamilton.
Guillard is joined in the back-row by another player that usually features in the second-row in Joshua Brennan. A yellow card may have blotted Brennan’s copybook but, outside of that, the son of former Ireland forward, Trevor, was absolutely outstanding. Both him and Guillard are very physical, as well as being useful lineout operators, and they will look to bully the much-changed All Blacks pack.
Elsewhere, it is another big game for prop Baptiste Erdocio after he held his own against Fletcher Newell last weekend. The scrum was one area of improvement from Test one and Erdocio will hope to repeat that performance in Hamilton. Tyrel Lomax is another level up, but the tighthead is playing his first match for over a month due to injury and the Frenchman will seek to take advantage of that.
Main head-to-head
After his all-action display in the opener, Alexandre Fischer returns to the XV to resume his battle with the truly world-class Ardie Savea. Fischer’s performance was absolutely monstrous in Dunedin as he tackled and jackalled, and altogether wreaked havoc in defence against the All Blacks. Injuries have hampered his progress over the years but, on this evidence, Fischer could be a French regular going forward.
He comes up against the magnificent Savea, a player that needs no introduction but whose talents should never be undervalued. After a magnificent season for Moana Pasifika at openside, Robertson has duly shifted him to flanker from number eight and he has maintained those high standards at the start of 2025. In the carry, he is so difficult to stop while without the ball, the 31-year-old makes an impact in the tackle and at the breakdown.
Prediction
Irrespective of the New Zealand’s rotation, they should still have too much for France, but we have a sneaking suspicion it could be mightily close. On paper, this is still a French C team, but many of those players featuring this weekend have now shown they can, at the very least, compete at this level. However, let’s be honest, the hosts have to be winning this game relatively comfortably. All Blacks by 10 points.
Previous results
2025: New Zealand won 43-17 in Wellington
2025: New Zealand won 31-27 in Dunedin
2024: France won 30-29 in Saint-Denis
2023: France won 27-13 in Saint-Denis
2021: France won 40-25 in Saint-Denis
2018: New Zealand won 49-14 in Dunedin
2018: New Zealand won 26-13 in Wellington
2018: New Zealand won 52-11 in Auckland
2017: New Zealand won 38-18 in Saint-Denis
2016: New Zealand won 24-19 in Saint-Denis
The teams
All Blacks: 15 Ruben Love, 14 Will Jordan, 13 Anton Lienert-Brown, 12 Quinn Tupaea, 11 Sevu Reece, 10 Damian McKenzie, 9 Cortez Ratima, 8 Luke Jacobson, 7 Ardie Savea (c), 6 Samipeni Finau, 5 Fabian Holland, 4 Patrick Tuipulotu, 3 Tyrel Lomax, 2 Samisoni Taukei’aho, 1 Ethan de Groot
Replacements: 16 Brodie McAlister, 17 George Bower, 18 Fletcher Newell, 19 Dalton Papali’i, 20 Du’Plessis Kirifi 21 Noah Hotham, 22 Timoci Tavatavanawai, 23 Jordie Barrett
France: 15 Léo Barré, 14 Théo Attissogbé, 13 Nicolas Depoortère, 12 Gaël Fickou (c), 11 Gabin Villière, 10 Antoine Hastoy, 9 Nolann Le Garrec, 8 Mickaël Guillard, 7 Joshua Brennan, 6 Alexandre Fischer, 5 Matthias Halagahu, 4 Hugo Auradou, 3 Rabah Slimani, 2 Pierre Bourgarit, 1 Baptiste Erdocio
Replacements: 16 Gaëtan Barlot, 17 Paul Mallez, 18 Demba Bamba, 19 Romain Taofifénua, 20 Killian Tixeront, 21 Pierre Bochaton, 22 Thibault Daubagna, 23 Émilien Gailleton
Date: Saturday, July 19
Venue: FMG Stadium Waikato, Hamilton
Kick-off: 19:05 local (08:05 BST, 07:05 GMT)
Referee: Angus Gardner (RA)
Assistant referees: Damian Schneider (UAR), Takehito Namekawa (JRFU)
TMO: Brett Cronan (RA)
FPRO: Damon Murphy (RA)