EUR/USD held a narrow range amid conflicting ECB and Fed expectations.
The dollar found support from strong US data and tariff-driven safe-haven flows.
Next week’s ECB meeting and Eurozone PMIs will be key catalysts.
The EUR/USD pair traded defensively, hovering around the 1.1600 mark. Early strength in the euro faded mid-week as traders re-evaluated the European Central Bank’s (ECB) stance in light of global trade uncertainty and softer regional data.
–Are you interested in learning more about ETF brokers? Check our detailed guide-
The US data surprised to the upside as retail sales rose faster than expected, and jobless claims remained low, reinforcing the narrative that the Fed may keep rates higher for longer. Meanwhile, Trump’s comments about potentially expanding tariffs on European imports added a layer of risk-off sentiment that favored the dollar as a safe haven.
Despite this, Eurozone inflation remained stable, and ECB officials maintained a neutral tone, with markets now expecting the ECB to hold steady in July. That said, the tone of Thursday’s ECB press conference will be critical, mainly if President Lagarde addresses trade tensions or hints at September easing.
Key Events Next Week for EUR/USD
The focus will shift to forward-looking indicators, with the ECB rate decision and Eurozone PMIs in the spotlight:
ECB policy decision & press conference: Rates are expected to remain unchanged, but any dovish shift or concern over tariffs could pressure the euro.
German & Eurozone PMIs: A soft reading could raise growth concerns, especially if services contract further.
US preliminary PMIs & Durable Goods Orders: May influence the dollar’s momentum if data surprises to the upside.
Markets will also react to ongoing geopolitical headlines, particularly developments in US-EU trade.
EUR/USD weekly technical analysis: Make or break at 1.1600
EUR/USD daily chart
The daily chart for the EUR/USD shows a mildly bearish momentum as the price turned below the 20-day SMA. However, the SMA is still pointing upwards. The price moved lower but found support below the 1.1600 mark. If the price holds, the pair may jump towards 1.1700.
–Are you interested in learning more about Canada forex brokers? Check our detailed guide-
Alternatively, if the support is broken, the price may aim for the 100-day SMA at 1.1500 ahead of another support at 1.1455. The RSI is neutral, hovering around the 50.0 level, indicating that the pair requires a stimulus to move either way.
Looking to trade forex now? Invest at eToro!
68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.