FTSE 100 down 5 points to 8,987
BP appoints Albert Manifold as new chair
Government promises ‘root and branch’ water sector changes
1.20pm: Big central bank decisions in coming fortnight
The next cycle of central bank meetings begins this week, notes UBS economist Dean Turner.
The European Central Bank is first out of the gate on Thursday and then over the coming fortnight, will be followed by policymakers at the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England.
“These four major central banks are each at different stages in their respective interest rate cycles, but they have one thing in common: the highly uncertain policy environment is not making their jobs any easier.”
The ECB is much further into its cutting cycle than most, Turner notes, and is widely expected to stand pat this week.
The main rate for the bloc is at 2.15%, versus the Fed target range of 4.25% to 4.50%, and the BoE’s base rate at 4.25%.
The BoJ is “in an entirely different position”, having begun its hiking cycle just before the others started cutting, but easing inflation pressure, US trade talks and the country’s own politcal upheaval (see below) will see a pause there next week.
“The hold may last for some time,” Turner says.
“For investors, the Fed’s decision is paramount. Arguably, this decision is the most challenging, as policymakers await more evidence on whether tariffs on US imports will result in significantly more inflation or weaker growth. Currently, the data offer no clear signals.”
Despite Donald Trump’s pressure to cut rates, the Fed is expected by markets to hold off for the time being, with Turner in agreement.
The BoE will be last up, on 7 August, and the economist sees the decision almost as challenging, but for different reasons.
“However, the trade-off between sticky inflation and a slowing economy is not new for UK policymakers, and it explains why they have been more cautious than the ECB.”
As UK monetary policy remains in restrictive territory and headwinds to growth becoming more evident, Turner says he expect the Monetary Policy Committee to proceed with a rate cut in August, “probably with another split vote”.
12.01am: FTSE 100 and European stocks in red
The FTSE has dropped into the red.
Declines for BAE Systems, Standard Chartered, LSE Group, and Diageo are the main drag.
All but four of the index’s largest 20 companies are in the red.
Across Europe there is a sea of red, with Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC down 0.2% and 0.5%, and the Euro Stoxx 600 down 0.2%.
The muted sentiment in Europe reflects “fretting over trade talks between the US and EU”, says Saxo market analyst Neil Wilson.
“President Trump is reportedly pushing for 15-20% tariffs on the EU, which is racing to secure a deal before the 1 August implementation of 30% tariffs on the bloc.”
Donald Trump suggested last week that 15-20% might be the tariff, with the EU said to be preparing retaliatory measures of its own to deploy in the event of a no-deal scenario, though US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said he was “confident we’ll get a deal done”.
Wilson says there is “a bit of a summer holiday vibe to the markets”, though he cautions that there is a “need to watch bond yields”, with the US 30yr shying away from the 5% handle…we need to see if this level can be breached properly”.
Looking across the Atlantic, he notes that so far, Wall Street earnings are beating lowered expectations – 83% beats so far according to FactSet.
“The bar to beating expectations had been lowered significantly, so this is not a surprise. Netflix fell despite beating forecasts and raising guidance – it had been well priced for this beat it seems.”
11.28am: TSMC joins trillion dollar club
A new member has entered the world’s exclusive trillion-dollar club – and this time it is not a Silicon Valley giant.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (ADR) (NYSE:TSM) closed above a $1 trillion market valuation in Taipei last week, propelled by booming demand for chips used in artificial intelligence.
TSMC is the main supplier to the tech sector and joining the ranks of the world’s most valuable companies alongside Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet and Meta.
Its shares have surged by nearly 50% since April, making it the first Asian stock to pass the trillion-dollar mark since PetroChina briefly reached the milestone in 2007.
11.02am: Ofwat acknowledges fate
Ofwat says it will work with the government and the other regulators to form the new regulatory body for the water industry in England, after the Cunliffe report recommended that Ofwat be abolished, with a new, more powerful regulator replacing it and the Drinking Water Inspectorate, as well as taking over the water related functions from the Environment Agency and Natural England.
A spokesperson for Ofwat says: “While we have been working hard to address problems in the water sector in recent years, this report sets out important findings for how economic regulation is delivered and we will develop and take this forward with government.
“Today marks an opportunity to reset the sector so it delivers better outcomes for customers and the environment.”
Ahead of the creation of the new body, Ofwat will “continue to work hard within our powers to protect customers and the environment and to discharge our responsibilities under the current regulatory framework. We will also work collaboratively with all our stakeholders to ensure a smooth transition.”
10.40am: Spate of profit warnings
Profit warnings in the past quarter shot up to levels not seen in years, according to fresh figures from EY.
This showed that 59 London-listed firms sounded the alarm, up 20% from the start of the year.
It’s not hugely surprising as a wave of geopolitical squabbles and trade tensions rattled the boardrooms, with almost half of these warnings directly blaming global political uncertainty, compared to just 4% a year ago.
New US tariffs, especially those announced by the Trump administration in April, caused a noticeable spike, with companies like TT Electronics sounding the alarm in April and Clarksons feeling the pinch in early May.
Internal UK pressures like rising payroll taxes and minimum wage hikes are squeezing margins further, with retailers and industrial service providers among the hardest hit.
10am: MONY slips, Oxford Nanopore surges
Some movers in the mid-caps this morning.
MONY Group PLC (LSE:MONY) fell 7% after the operator of MoneySuperMarket reported first-half results that analysts said were resilient in the face of headwinds in end-markets.
First-half revenue was up 1% to £225.3 million and EBITDA rose 2% to £75.1 million from the price comparison group, with the main drag on revenue growth being the insurance business, said analyst Johnathan Barrett Panmure Liberum.
UBS analyst Jo Barnet-Lamb said the announcement “illustrates the current issues facing MONY”.
“The group’s transactional business model is coming up against revenue headwinds constraining gross profits. However management are working hard from an opex perspective whilst headwinds sustain in order to safeguard profitability… we doubt the shares will materially re-rate until profit growth is again driven by revenues”.
Elsewhere, Oxford Nanopore Technologies PLC (LSE:ONT) leapt almost 20% after the DNA and RNA testing group said H1 revenue is was ahead of expectations.
The FTSE 250-listed group said revenue was around £105 million, up 25% year-on-year or around 5% ahead of the current average analyst forecast.
9.04am: LSE examines potential for 24hr trading
London Stock Exchange Group PLC (LSE:LSEG) is looking at a potential move to around-the-clock trading, according to a FT report.
This is one of the options the stock market operator is examining, amidst wider discussions about extending its trading hours.
Sources with knowledge of the talks said the practicalities of extending hours are being examined, including what technology and regulatory changes might be required.
The talks have been ongoing for some time, the sources said, while the reported noted that several major US markets have already filed for permission to begin 24-hour trading.
8.37am: UK water sector shake-up
A major review of England and Wales’ water regulation has called for a sweeping overhaul of the current system, proposing the replacement of existing regulators with single, integrated bodies for each nation.
The Independent Water Commission, led by Sir Jon Cunliffe, set out 88 recommendations aimed at improving how the sector is run, following years of public dissatisfaction over pollution, rising bills, and executive pay.
The report described the current system as “fragmented and overlapping” and suggested creating a single water regulator with a ‘supervisory’ approach, and abolishing Ofwat and the Drinking Water Inspectorate in England, along with removing key regulatory roles from the Environment Agency and Natural England.
Stronger environmental regulation and greater consumer protection are needed too, the Commission said, setting out proposals to improve affordability and customer service, as well as recommending significant increases in automation, third-party assurance and inspections.
Environment Secretary Steve Reed is expected to say in a speech today: “The water industry is broken. Our rivers, lakes and seas are polluted with record levels of sewage. Water pipes have been left to crumble into disrepair. Soaring water bills are straining family finances.”
He says with the Cunliffe report offers solutions to fix the broken regulatory system, the government will “introduce root and branch reform in the biggest overhaul of water regulation in a generation”.
Water companies United Utilities Group PLC (LSE:UU.), Severn Trent PLC (LSE:SVT) and Pennon Group PLC (LSE:PNN, OTC:PEGRY) are up 1.8%, 1.6% and 0.9%.
8.15am: FTSE 100 opens slightly higher
The FTSE 100 has opened tentatively on the front foot, up four points at 8,996.
Top of the risers are names we’ve seen a lot of movement from in recent weeks, Rentokil Initial, Antofagasta and Intermediate Capital Group, all up over 2%.
GSK is the biggest faller, down 4.6%
Investors are still seeing the downside from the Blenrep vote last week from the FDA advisory committee.
7.53am: Japan in focus
“It’s all about Japan this morning,” says Deutsche Bank macro strategist Jim Reid, as the ruling coalition government has lost its majority in the upper house.
There is “a lot of uncertainty around what happens next”, says Reid, with Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s vowing to stay on but “history suggests this will be a challenge” even if his party still comfortably has the largest number of seats.
He will remain as PM to negotiate tariffs, he said earlier.
“The fact that we’re under two weeks away from the August 1st trade deadline complicates things further,” says Reid. “On the positive side only being three seats short may allow the coalition to pass legislation with non-affiliated independents.”
Nikkei futures are slightly lower with cash Japanese markets closed for a holiday.
Looking to the rest of the week, Reid says, “this week looks pretty quiet in terms of planned events but this year has been as busy as I can remember outside of a crisis in terms of unplanned events so the first part of this sentence will likely be proved to be meaningless.
“In terms of the known highlights, we have the global flash PMIs on Thursday alongside what is universally accepted to be an ECB on hold meeting.
“With the Fed on their blackout ahead of next week’s FOMC, the only noise will come from how hard Trump wants to continue to push on with criticising Powell. Powell does open a regulatory conference tomorrow but won’t discuss monetary policy given the blackout.”
7.35am: BP appoints Manifold as chair
BP PLC (LSE:BP.) chairman Helge Lund will leave the board at the start of October, after almost seven years in the role, with former CRH boss Albert Manifold appointed to succeed him.
A significant portion of BP’s shareholders have expressed dissatisfaction with the company’s direction under Lund’s leadership, which was evident in the recent vote at BP’s annual general meeting, where nearly a quarter voted against his re-election.
Manifold will join the board on 1 September as non-executive director and chair-elect, and will move up to the senior role on 1 October, the oil company said in a statement on Monday.
7.23am: House prices drop
UK house prices experienced their sharpest July decline in more than 20 years, according to monthly data from Rightmove, with sellers cutting prices aggressively amid heightened competition to attract cautious buyers.
The average asking price for a property newly listed for sale dropped by 1.2% (£4,531) this month.
While a seasonal drop in July is common, the scale of this month’s reduction is notable, driven by a continued glut of homes available for sale, the highest in a decade.
7.15am: FTSE 100 called flat on Monday
The FTSE 100 is set for a slow start to the week, with many people already on holidays but markets gearing up for a rush of results and earnings in the coming days.
Futures for London’s blue-chip index have been called 2 points lower, after the benchmark finished on an upward march at the end of last week at 8,992.1 following an up-and-down week.
US markets finished the week in mixed fashion, with the Dow Jones dropping 0.3% and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq largely flat, with US futures pointing to small gains this morning.
Asian markets are mostly in green this morning, with Tokyo closed for holidays but Nikkei futures in red.
In early economic news, UK house prices saw their sharpest July decline in more than 20 years, according to Rightmove. More on that in a sec.
Monday 21 July
Announcements expected:
Interims: Mony Group, Oxford Nanopore Technologies
Overseas earnings: Verizon, Domino’s Pizza (both premarket), NXP Semiconductors (after close)
Economic announcements: Rightmove House Prices (UK)