Graphic by me, created in Excel.

All data from the census bureau here: https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2020s-total-metro-and-micro-statistical-areas.html

Every Metro Area with a population over 1 million (in 2024) is shown. Bars are color coded based on the US Census bureau region (map shown in graphic).

Posted by TA-MajestyPalm

40 comments

  2. All the top growth cities are places most of Reddit would never choose to live. Shows the disconnect between idealism and reality.

  4. Looks like cost of housing is driving people to areas that are going to be more affected by global warming.

  7. Seems like there’s a correlation with low tax rate states, no?

  8. It’s great to see Detroit finally in the positives on these graphs. Hopefully that number keeps on going up!

  9. These in between census estimates are not especially reliable, Chicago was projected as losing population leading up to the 2020 census but when they did the actual count we gained population. Given the way rents are rising I’m fairly certain we are gaining population right now as well, despite the “estimates” saying otherwise.

  10. I know the Census says Maryland and Delaware are in the South but it would be better if they were in the “Middle Atlantic” category.

    But also I wonder what this will look like in the decades to come do to various other reasons, like climate, education, economic factors, etc

  11. How much more built out can the sunbelt get till they just turn into the Northeast/California in 1980 ?

  12. The region clusters are “interesting”. The names given to the two subregions of the midwest are whack and not used by people. Try “Great Lakes” and “Great Plains”. The way the southern states are clustered completely ignores the cultural divisions of Appalachia Tidewater, and the Deep South.

  13. Orlando resident since 2010 and Florida native, please god stop moving here.

    Orlandos growth has been insane, still love living here but the traffic is unmanageable now.

  14. Honestly, not surprised by the cali metro area dips. Housing is expensive AF

  16. Rochester has a lower COL, is a neat lil’ city, and is in a climate haven. Winters are getting more manageable and there’s a ton of amenities. Houses are affordable and you still get all the blue state social features.

    Moved here last year and it’s been awesome. I’d highly recommend it to anyone who people who want density, a back yard, and proximity to the best waterfalls on this continent. (Seriously, there’s awesome waterfalls everywhere here, including a huge one right in center city!)

  17. Top 9 growth cities are in just 3 states! That is pretty wild.

  18. I think this is all downstream of one thing: the invention of air conditioning.

    Being uninhabitable until ~1950 means that today there’s still space to sprawl into. No politically fraught debates about infill (yet).

  19. As of 2025 San Jose is only the second US city in history that used to have a population of more than one million but dropped back under one million. Detroit is the other one. To be fair, San Jose peaked at 1.01 million and currently sits at 990,000, but still, an exodus of 20 or 30,000 people in less than 5 years is a lot.

    Before anyone chimes in with “what about Cleveland/Baltimore/Detroit?” Those cities peaked at just under one million but never quite crossed the line before their declines.

  20. I‘m just no longer surprised by the things people do. Retiring snow birds don’t account for a big chunk of the top 10 as most of those areas aren’t retirement meccas. My armchair opinion is it’s the lower cost of housing and concerted tax schemes to draw businesses, thus jobs, are bringing people. The warmer weather may be a factor, but that’s probably just the cherry on top. 

    Those all sound great, but then you look at how regressive those states’ consumption taxes are, how awful the politics are, how insurance companies already know climate change is going to destroy those areas, thus the jacked up rates… Like, you’ve got to really not be thinking long term to move to those areas. And if you’re a young couple looking to start a family, is the big house you can afford more important than the risk of a problematic pregnancy that gets caught up in Southern politics? Obviously, to a big chunk of people, the risk:reward ratio is ok. 

    Whatever, man. When the heat and weather gets to the point of creating climate refugees, all those folks are gonna be *pissed* when the Northern states start using the *exact same* rhetoric around immigration that they already use to tell them to fuck off. 

  22. I don’t agree with Maryland with being south, it’s more so mid-atlantic. We are more culturally northern.

  23. I love that you are looking at metropolitan area population and not just city population data! Metropolitan area population data is a much better representation of demographic shifts and a better representation of how a city, itself, is doing than just simply looking at a city’s population data. Bravo!

  24. When are people going to stop hating on Indiana

  25. I’d put money on Rochester, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Cleveland & Detroit showing significant growth after 2030. Many of the places that have grown significantly are the front lines of climate change. Too hot, too many hurricanes, too much flooding, and, out West, too little water.

  27. There are a lot of good cities on this list, but the issue I see is the massive sprawl this is creating. My brother lives in Raleigh, which is a great city, but the city proper is absolutely dwarfed by the suburban population which creeps further out every year and creates a commuting nightmare. Another issue is the hollowing out of smaller cities as people increasingly leave for major metro areas. Most counties are losing population as jobs are increasingly concentrated in fewer and fewer areas and people move to the suburbs of these metro areas hoping to maintain that smalltown/city lifestyle only to fill up cookie cutter housing communities and clog all the roads. FWIW I’m not anti suburb and definitely not anti small town, but we can’t have this many people moving all to the surburbs of the same major metros without causing major problems.

  28. Feels like Atlanta has been increasing at about the same rate for a long time.

  29. Can someone explain why it’s better to use percentages here instead of absolute figures?

  31. Funny how reddit hates Texas but the growth charts suggest that ain’t a thing elsewhere

    Reddit has been out of touch since forever

  33. Add in a grain of salt to these estimates. A lot of the high growth for say, Austin, is based off COVID and post-COVID migration where a lot of tech specialists were relocating thanks for friendlier work-from-home policies. Now that trend has recently reversed and a lot of business are mandating return-to-office, so we’re not likely to see the explosive growth in TX & FL that we saw in the past 4 years continue.

  34. Would be interesting to see how much of this is base effects of starting from a smaller population/population density in the first place.

  36. Shout out to San Diego for basically having the same exact population for 5 years.

  37. What is the value in combining any pandemic data with post-pandemic data? Seems fishy to ever put any 2020-2022 data together with 2023-2024 data and pretend it can represent any continuous trends… Especially given we know people moved away from high population density areas in the pandemic for obvious reasons.

  38. Hawaii makes me sad. I lived there for five years. More than half of all people born in Hawaii who complete college (in state or elsewhere) leave the state and don’t return. There are very few jobs there for college-educated professionals. Mostly tourism and a bit of military support.

  40. Notice what all of those top cities have, minus Raleigh NC, no state income taxes in TX and FL.

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