Key Points and Summary – For the second time in three days, NATO has scrambled fighter jets in response to a massive Russian aerial assault on western Ukraine, dangerously close to the Polish border.
-The attack, involving 450 drones and 24 missiles, saw Russian strategic bombers launching weapons at cities like L’viv and Ivano-Frankivsk.
-The proximity and scale of the bombardment, particularly the use of nuclear-capable bombers, has put NATO on high alert.
-This escalation is seen as a dangerous provocation that dramatically increases the risk of a miscalculation that could trigger an Article 5 response from the alliance.
Russia Is Attacking Very Close to Poland
WARSAW, POLAND – The great fear of most military planners in the US and the European capitals of NATO nations is that by mistake or miscalculation, Russia could end up committing an Article 5 violation against an alliance member.
This offense would thereby require all the other NATO nations to respond against Moscow. Such a mishap seems increasingly likely due to the actions of the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) on the night of Sunday, July 20.
Combat actions of Russia’s drone and missile units and VKS bomber aircraft so alarmed the Polish Air Force and other allied air forces that they sounded their fighter scramble alert signal for the second time in only three days. This is due to the size, composition, and duration of Russian air strikes on Ukraine and other cities.
Reports here in Warsaw were that the “Operational Command of the Polish Armed Forces said it scrambled fighter jets due to the intensity of the [Russian] attack.” The Armed Forces Command Authority announced: “Polish and allied [NATO] air forces have commenced operations, and ground-based air defense and radar reconnaissance systems have reached the highest level of alert.”
Residents of Kyiv who spoke with National Security Journal stated that explosions were heard throughout the night as air defense units engaged in intercepting Russia’s attack. The air raid, or trivoga, signal “was engaged at 2257 hours Sunday night and the ‘all clear’ was not sounded until 0700 Monday morning, Kyiv time,” said one resident and manager of another military enterprise that produces parts for military vehicles.
Russia Aiming for Military Industrial Sites
Ukraine’s Air Force (PSU) reported that Russia launched 450 drones and 24 missiles overnight across the country. However, only 23 drones ever reached their targets, according to the same military officials.
One of the sites that was hit was the Kyiv underground Metro station at Lukianivskaya near the very centre of Kyiv. It is the fourth time that this station has been struck in Russian attacks.
“It is not because the Russians see the McDonald’s in this station as a symbol of American imperialism that they keep hitting this same spot over and over,” explained a Ukrainian defense industry executive who also spoke today to NSJ. “Rather it is because of some of the military enterprises and other sensitive facilities close to this location – and they keep overshooting their target and hitting the station instead.”
One of the main military industrial facilities that used to be located in this area of Kyiv was the Artem Holding Company, which produces various models of air-launched and anti-ship weapons.
The building, however, has been hit so many times already that only the outer walls of the building are left—everything that was inside is gone,” said one of the defense industry executives whose company is close to this same location.
“Obviously, this is one of the few cases when the Russians are actually trying to hit a military target instead of their usual habit of just engaging in wanton destruction of apartment buildings or other civilian targets,” he said.
Attacks Far to The West: What a Polish Military Offical Told Us
Russia has intensified the strikes in recent weeks and is targeting cities far from the frontline in the west of the country, close to the Polish border, with these drone and missile attacks.
In the western city of Ivano-Frankivsk, air defenses were working. Mayor Ruslan Martsinkiv reported at 0310, only a few hours after the air raid alarms had been sounded in Kyiv.
“In one of the community’s villages, windows have been broken,” he reported later at 0509 hours, adding that there were reports of injuries among the civilian population.
Russian strikes continued to target the western region, Martsinkiv reported again at 0605, and he stated that last night’s was “the largest attack since the full-scale invasion.”
It is not just the proximity of these attacks to the Polish border that has NATO on high alert. If the attacks were just drones, it would be one matter, said a former Polish military official.
“What is concerning us all now is that these are missiles and glide bombs being launched not by fighter aircraft, but by the VKS Tupolev Tu-95MS Bear and Tu-160 Blackjack strategic bombers. Some of the missiles they fired targeted L’viv, the closest city to the Polish border, and also the western city of Lutsk. The use of these heavy bombers, which are all nuclear-capable, has become more and more frequent,” he said.
“When they are shooting missiles that land this close to Poland, how are we to know if this is just an attack on Ukraine or not. And if they land in Poland is it because they overshot their target, or is it a prelude to a wider war,” he said.
“This has everyone on edge. It is a dangerous, combustible situation.”
About the Author: Reuben F. Johnson
Reuben F. Johnson has thirty-six years of experience analyzing and reporting on foreign weapons systems, defense technologies, and international arms export policy. Johnson is the Director of Research at the Casimir Pulaski Foundation. He is also a survivor of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. He worked for years in the American defense industry as a foreign technology analyst and later as a consultant for the U.S. Department of Defense, the Departments of the Navy and Air Force, and the governments of the United Kingdom and Australia. In 2022-2023, he won two awards in a row for his defense reporting. He holds a bachelor’s degree from DePauw University and a master’s degree from Miami University in Ohio, specializing in Soviet and Russian studies. He lives in Warsaw.
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