by Peter Tase

The rules-based international order is experiencing a stage of
rapid, unpredictable and significant changes. Swing states within
the European Union and Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine
epitomize the constantly changing tectonic plates of transatlantic
geopolitics. As Arthur Herman – a Wisconsin native distinguished
historian and a former senior fellow at Hudson Institute – wrote:
“It is not only politics that may be seen as war by other means.
For centuries, governments have sought to demoralize and defeat
their enemies without resorting to the battlefield.” While the
current White House under the leadership of President Donald J.
Trump has embraced a form of upheaval in its first six months,
altering key policies, European relationships, and arrangements;
Lithuania – a NATO and EU member nation – a parliamentary republic
has openly demonstrated ethical dilemmas in the execution of its
foreign policy and feckless roadmap in deterring Moscow’s hegemonic
aspirations in the Baltics and eastern Europe.

As the genocidal Russian invasion of Ukraine, and Kremlin’s
devastating crimes against humanity, continue to inflict
irreparable damages over Ukraine for more than eleven years;
Vilnius’ international trade policy looks more like business as
usual as Russian Federation was among the top six trading partners
of Lithuania in 2023. The European Union’s economic sanctions
against Russia have not influenced Lithuania’s International trade
policy and swing diplomacy.

The spine-chilling vacillations are demonstrated by the
government of PM Gintautas Paluckas, in its efforts to aid the
Kaliningrad region of the Russian Federation, by serving as its
orange life vest hung on the roof of Königsberg Cathedral.
Paluckas’ purported pro – Russian posture comes at a critical time
when Moscow is desperately looking for alternative energy sources
as its Kaliningrad region is facing an energy collapse. According
to public sources, the Russian authorities are incapable to prevent
the disruption of electrical energy supply and underground
negotiations are under way as Belarus and Lithuania will allegedly
come to rescue in these critical times.

It is imperative for European Union to stay rivetted on
thwarting Moscow’s military threat and its growing attempts to
convince Lithuanian officials to act against EU and NATO
recommendations and interests. So far, Lithuanian authorities have
failed to understand at a granular level the propaganda machine and
influence of Russia in Europe through Kaliningrad region.

As warfare is in the midst of massive changes in reconnaissance
systems and in all military domains simultaneously; on May 5th,
Lithuanian government has announced that it will invest 1.1 billion
euros over the next decade to strengthen security of its borders
with Russia and Belarus. On the other hand, Lithuania has the cards
to provide electrical energy to Kaliningrad region in the future
and in doing so this will be its major geopolitical blunder of the
century.

Furthermore, almost a million Russian residents of this region
will have to make a real choice in the future – in what political
and legal framework will they continue to live – choosing between
democratic Europe or authoritarian Russian regime.

It is paramount to emphasize that Aleksandr Ivanovich UDALTSOV,
a seasoned Russian diplomat, former Ambassador of Moscow to
Lithuania, with ties to Russia’s security services, continues to
have trusted human intelligence sources from Vilnius. At this
juncture, for NATO, LITHUANIA is indeed a flair – up point.

On February 8th, 2025, the Baltic States withdrew from the
regional joint energy system BRELL (Belarus – Russia – Estonia –
Latvia – Lithuania). Therefore, the Kaliningrad region became
energy isolated from the unified energy system of the Russian
Federation and the Republic of Belarus. This makes the territory
energy dependent on neighboring countries and vulnerable.

The 10-year agreement between the Lithuanian gas transmission
operator Amber Grid and Russia’s Gazprom on the transit of natural
gas to the Kaliningrad region of the Russian Federation through the
sovereign territory of Lithuania expires in 2025. Under this
agreement, Lithuania transits up to 2.5 billion cubic meters of gas
per year via a 155-kilometer main pipeline with a diameter of 500
mm along the Minsk – Vilnius – Kaunas – Kaliningrad route.

The Republic of Lithuania is no longer dependent on Russian gas
imports for domestic needs, as its purchases were completely
stopped in April 2022. Now all the gas needed by Lithuania in
liquefied form is supplied to the Lithuanian gas distribution
network through the LNG terminal in Klaipeda.

In early March 2025, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda stated
that the issue of Russian gas transit corridor is not bilateral and
the decision to extend the contract should be made at the European
Union level. That is, despite the obvious commercial interests
(Lithuania annually receives approximately 20 million euros in
payments for gas transit to the Kaliningrad region), Vilnius openly
demonstrates its commitment to a consolidated pan-European posture
on Russian aggression against Ukraine.

The Kremlin is pinning all its hopes on the resolution of the
issue of energy supply to the Kaliningrad region on the favorable
lobbying of Hungary and Slovakia. Budapest and Bratislava can
indeed block a likely negative decision of the European Union to
engage with Russia. However, Hungary and Slovakia are not in a
suitable position to lobby in favor of Moscow.

In 2019, to diversify the origin of gas provisions to the
Kaliningrad region, Russia created an alternative sea route. An
alternative to land-based route for supplying natural gas from
mainland Russia to the Kaliningrad region is via the Baltic Sea.
The base dock terminal is located 5 km from the coast in the
Zelenograd region. The mobile regasification unit (MRGU) Marshal
Vasilevsky receives liquefied gas on board at the Gazprom LNG
Portovaya or Cryogaz-Vysotsk terminals in the Leningrad region and
delivers it to its destination. In a re-gasified form, the gas is
supplied to the Kaliningrad underground gas storage facility via an
underwater pipeline, which is connected to the gas network of the
enclave.

Anticipating a possible scenario of blocking pipeline transit,
Gazprom plans to complete the expansion of the Kaliningrad UGS
(underground gas storage) from the current capacity of 516 million
cubic meters to 800 million cubic meters in 2025. This is done to
create a strategic reserve for the region in case of supply
disruptions, primarily in the event of a cessation of gas supply to
the combined heat and power plants and thermal power plants built
in the region over the past few years.

Energy flow for Kaliningrad is fundamental and geo-strategically
important for Moscow and European Union nations must work hand in
glove to economically crush Russia until its ruthless army
withdraws from every inch of sovereign Ukrainian territory.
Certainly, Vilnius plays a geographic role in these critical times
as regional energy pipelines can further embolden economic
statecraft of EU and further reduce Russia’s global leadership and
geopolitical influence.

The views and opinions expressed by guest columnists in
their op-eds may differ from and do not necessarily reflect the
views of the editorial staff.