Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers says Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell should stand fast for central bank independence. Former Pacific Investment Management co-CEO Mohamed el-Arian says Powell should stand down for the same thing.
Current Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says there’s no reason for the Fed chair to resign right now. Bessent says too that an investigation of the Fed’s renovation project is warranted as part of a review of whether “the organization has succeeded in its mission.”
These days, Summers and el-Arian get paid to get eyeballs. And Bessent gets paid to do Trump’s bidding in a way that calms the bond market.
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But sitting CEOs of publicly traded companies are chiming in during quarterly earnings conference calls and other public places, such as CNBC and Bloomberg TV, on a potentially market-defining controversy.
And that is something a little more substantive to talk about.
It’s not rare for heads of companies in the financial services sector to address interest rates and central banks.
It’s a complex relationship, but the level, rate of change and direction of the federal funds rate is part of the net interest income (NII) calculation. And NII is a crucial factor in the overall health of their businesses, after all, right there with wealth management, investment banking and trading activities.
But it’s not often personal, and when it is, it’s to do things like congratulate once and future colleagues for elevation to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and/or the Fed chair.
It really is just business, most of the time.
Until recently, it was indeed less than rare for non-financial services CEOs to discuss the Fed except in the broadest terms and in the macro context.
And they never got specific about who should be and who should not be the Federal Reserve chair.
But that appears to have changed.
The independence of the Fed
In a series of social media posts, other public statements and now a coordinated campaign to discredit the Fed chair, President Trump, with his attacks on Powell, has also undermined the independence of the Fed.
What does that mean, the “independence of the Fed”? LPL Financial Chief Economist Jeffrey Roach defines it as “the ability to pursue their congressional mandate (full employment and stable prices) without outsider influence.”
The Fed, Roach observes, “has a representative nature to it, desirous in protecting investors from politicized policy-making.”
At the same time, however, “We shouldn’t be surprised that the executive branch is lobbying for lower rates. That’s been the case during various administrations from Reagan to Obama.”
President Trump still faces a basic mathematical hurdle, even if he gets what he thinks he wants. The Federal Open Market Committee sets interest rates based on a vote of its 12 members. The chair casts one vote.
And, anyway, Roach says, “There is no reason to aggressively cut rates down to one or two percent when inflation is above the Fed’s target, unemployment is low, and the economy is still growing.”
Roach concedes the fed funds rate is higher than benchmarks set by several other central banks such as the European Central Bank, and that the Fed has room to cut “a few quarter points” by the end of 2025 if inflation stabilizes.
“But,” he adds, “with privilege comes responsibility. The exceptional nature of our economy, the depth of our capital markets, and the safety of our legal structure often warrant a policy rate above international rates.”
What CEOs are saying about Trump vs Powell
Bank of America (BAC) Chairman and CEO Brian Moynihan: “The Fed is an independent agency, and they are meant to be outside the purview of the executive, and Congress. They are called to task, and monitored, and reviewed. The reality is they were set up to be independent.”
Citigroup (C) CEO Jane Fraser: “The independence of the Federal Reserve drives its credibility. It is critical to the effectiveness of our capital markets and US competitiveness.”
Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) Chairman, President and CEO Lourenco Goncalves: “Despite no signs of tariffs reigniting inflation, the Federal Reserve continues to keep interest rates unnecessarily high. After making home buying unattractive with very expensive mortgages, the Fed’s inaction on cutting interest rates is now an impediment to car buyers. Once Chairman Jerome Powell is gone, and that is not a matter of when, not if, and as soon as interest rates come down by 50 or 75 basis points, the automotive sector will take off again. Demand is there. But this Fed chairman will not act. So we need a new Fed chairman appointed as soon as possible.”
Goldman Sachs (GS) Chairman and CEO David Solomon: “I think central bank independence, not just here in the United States but around the world, has served us incredibly well. I think central bank independence, Fed independence, is very important and it’s something we should fight to preserve.”
JPMorgan Chase (JPM) Chairman and CEO Jamie Dimon: “I think the independence of the Fed is absolutely critical. Playing around with the Fed can have adverse consequences, the absolute opposite of what you might be hoping for.”
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