This time of year, a lot of eyes turn toward the tropics. Prediction models and forecasters carefully study the circulation of warm air way out in the middle of the ocean, playing careful attention to areas where conditions are right to allow these swirling breezes to coalesce into something more; something powerful and dangerous. Warm ocean waters and prevailing trade winds get together to create cyclones and send them spinning off in different directions. Some build only halfway and fall apart entirely over the water, unnamed and unnoticed by the watchers and their computer models. Some build and keep building into incredibly destructive forces of nature, only to be blocked from making landfall by some gracious oscillation of the continental weather patterns; the natural world gives and takes, seemingly on a whim. Sometimes, though, conditions are ideal for a storm to build and make the improbable journey to land, becoming impossible to ignore.
Season and single-game tickets have sold out, even before practice starts. There’s a palpable energy swirling around Kenan Stadium, a swell of optimism at the prospect of an on-field product cosigned by a six-time Super Bowl champion. At this week’s ACC Kickoff, as reviewed by fellow Tar Heel Blog writer Al Hood, the crowds to speak to Coach Belichick seemed to be at capacity. As has been the case seemingly all offseason (for various reasons), a good number of eyes seem to be turned to Chapel Hill with rapt interest. ESPN is forecasting this interest to continue at least through the first week of the season, as the Worldwide Leader will be sending the majority of the typical Gameday crew to Chapel Hill to do a show ahead of the Monday night kickoff against TCU.
There’s a warm breeze swirling down Franklin Street, heralding the return of students and the resumption of classes. It’s rustling the leaves of the hundred-year oaks on the quad, turning some upside-down to indicate a coming storm. It’s possible that this is an everyday sign, less an omen of large atmospheric changes and more a mundane warning of the summertime thunderstorms that are so common to summertime in North Carolina’s piedmont. Still, when that breeze reaches Kenan Stadium, carrying pine needles over the walls and into the stands, maybe it sticks around for a little while. With space to grow, maybe that breeze will be joined by others, swirling around midfield—a visible dust devil to match the less-tangible energy that is swirling through the building and the program as a whole. Maybe that little breeze will grow into something notable, something worth keeping an eye on.
It’s impossible to forecast, even with the incredibly advanced data that we have access to. There’s a reason that hurricane forecasts vary so wildly; small things can change the trajectory in profound ways. Sometimes, it seems like little more than a coin flip as to whether a named hurricane will make landfall or spin harmlessly into the northern Atlantic. Projecting the performance of a football team in today’s landscape, similarly, feels like a fool’s errand. Trying to build an accurate picture of what a given group of guys from so many disparate places will be able to accomplish in the upcoming season involves so many moving parts that it’ll make your head spin.
There’s energy gathering in the subtropical heat of Chapel Hill. It remains to be seen whether this energy will amount to anything; forecasts still vary wildly, and more data is needed. Either way, we’ll be watching closely.