It’s not going to happen because both Turkey and Israel are in the American camp.
Bibi can’t stand the fact that Syria might be on its way to democracy.
[removed]
Very unlikely…Maybe a proxy war in Syria at most to exert influence.
Doesn’t Turkey being a NATO country make this unlikely?
I dont think its going to happen.
Also… the actual debate/conflict over how Syria is to be constituted… its an actual live argument regardless of Israel, Turkey or even Druze.
Kurds are the ones holding ground, and are even less likely to tolerate centralization now compared to the day Damascus fell.
That’s the actual, main question.
Otherwise, what the most extreme federalist Druze are asking for (at least publicly) is for arrangements similar to the US, Germany, etc. One flag. One currency. One army. Local government with local law enforcement. “Crossing the rubicon” and the deploying national army in the domestic provinces to be banned. The US has that in their constitution as do many nations.
Kurds are not going to let HTS garrison their regions anyway.
We’ve seen what happens when the national army and associated militias were deployed.
Turkey is not goig to intervene… except along its border or other small interests. Neither is Israel, with the same caveat.
Meanwhile… I think they’ll eventually do a census and learn that minorities are much smaller now, after the war and under HTS rule.
If it turns out that sunnis are half what they were, they might settle down with minority paranoia. I think this is likely. Once they know that no single minority represents more than 5% then regional governments won’t be such a scary idea.
Religious Sunni arabs have the win. Their actual political rival is more secular sunni arabs. Its likely that a whole coalition of secular sunnis and religious minorities would represent the main opposition… If Syria allows some political freedom into the game.
Yet turkey is largest or second largest trade partner with israel
There are 3 main questions to be asked:
1. How much and how deep is Turkey willing to commit in Syria? Some material support in the north mainly focused on suppressing Kurds is very different than entire Turkish brigades officialy heading to Damascus or further south in support of the government.
2. How willing is Israel to attack Turkish targets? I mean, mainland Turkey is probably of limits and south of Damascus remaining demilitarized is the stated position, but where are the red lines exactly?
3. To what extent Israel and Turkey are coordinating? Hostilities between the two are at least in part theatre. It’s entirely plausible they either have, or are in the the process of designing the future of Syria between themselves.
It’s pretty straightforward in geopolitical terms.
Both Türkiye and Israel know that the hegemonic powers of the Cold War era are losing interest and influence in the region. Russia appears to have largely given up. The US is unpredictable, given its political instability, but tending towards isolationism.
This means the time has come for regional powers.
Of which there are three to worry about.
The first is Iran and its network of proxies – the “Axis of Resistance”.
The second is Türkiye.
The third is Israel.
Of the three, Iran took the first shot at hegemony – or was dragged into attempting to take the first shot, through its unwise deal with Hamas. Iran’s plan was to surround Israel with proxies, keep a simmering conflict with Israel alive, and use the resulting prestige to its advantage – pressuring its Sunni Arab enemies not to make a deal with Israel. However, Hamas’ unwise attack on Israel, whether with Iranian blessing or not, backfired spectacularly; while it did succeed in temporarily isolating Israel from other Arab nations, it resulted in a complete humiliation for Iran and destruction for its proxies and ally, Syria. In a cascade effect, Hezbollah was smashed, which led directly to the downfall of Assad, who relied on Hezbollah muscle (and Russian AirPower) to survive.
This also gave Türkiye a boost, as it was rebels backed by Türkiye who took over in Syria.
Now Israel and Türkiye are always going to be at odds, as both have ambitions in the Med – they clash over access to the vast natural gas fields that have been discovered there (an issue which seeks to have dropped out of sight lately). More fundamentally, they are both regional powers, and now that Iran has been beaten and humiliated, the largest two still standing.
For Sunni Arab nations, the dilemma is this: their population throughly hates Israel, now moreso than ever. However, their leaders know very well that a deal with Israel is in their best interests. Israel has proven military power and technology, and has zero ambitions affecting anyone but its immediate neighbours.
Türkiye, on the other hand, is very ambitious – memories of the Ottoman Empire loom large in the imagination of Erdogan, who like Putin has a long historical memory – although Türkiye’s reach exceeds its grasp. For example, in its recent interventions in North Africa. For another example, both Saudi Arabia and Türkiye have competing concerns over leadership of the Sunni world.
Thus, Sunni nations like Saudi Arabia are caught in a bit of a dilemma. Whatever they may say publicly, they will never be anything but opposed to a Shia revolutionary nation like Iran, and the rise of Iranian power (and its largely Shia proxies) will always be a danger. Yet they also would not welcome the rise of an ambitious Sunni Türkiye, who has historically colonized them and still has ambitions to lead the Sunni world. Their best bet to keep independent would be to make a deal with Israel – yet their populating utterly loathes Israel.
I seriously doubt Türkiye and Israel would come into direct conflict, it would be utterly disastrous for both of them and they must know it. More likely would be a competitive race to enlist support, with various Sunni Arab nations playing one against the other as best they can for their own advantage.
Everyone says this is unrealistic since no sane country will attack Turkey. True but overconfident, crazy one still can and Israel definitely fits the profile.
10 comments
It’s not going to happen because both Turkey and Israel are in the American camp.
Bibi can’t stand the fact that Syria might be on its way to democracy.
[removed]
Very unlikely…Maybe a proxy war in Syria at most to exert influence.
Doesn’t Turkey being a NATO country make this unlikely?
I dont think its going to happen.
Also… the actual debate/conflict over how Syria is to be constituted… its an actual live argument regardless of Israel, Turkey or even Druze.
Kurds are the ones holding ground, and are even less likely to tolerate centralization now compared to the day Damascus fell.
That’s the actual, main question.
Otherwise, what the most extreme federalist Druze are asking for (at least publicly) is for arrangements similar to the US, Germany, etc. One flag. One currency. One army. Local government with local law enforcement. “Crossing the rubicon” and the deploying national army in the domestic provinces to be banned. The US has that in their constitution as do many nations.
Kurds are not going to let HTS garrison their regions anyway.
We’ve seen what happens when the national army and associated militias were deployed.
Turkey is not goig to intervene… except along its border or other small interests. Neither is Israel, with the same caveat.
Meanwhile… I think they’ll eventually do a census and learn that minorities are much smaller now, after the war and under HTS rule.
If it turns out that sunnis are half what they were, they might settle down with minority paranoia. I think this is likely. Once they know that no single minority represents more than 5% then regional governments won’t be such a scary idea.
Religious Sunni arabs have the win. Their actual political rival is more secular sunni arabs. Its likely that a whole coalition of secular sunnis and religious minorities would represent the main opposition… If Syria allows some political freedom into the game.
Yet turkey is largest or second largest trade partner with israel
There are 3 main questions to be asked:
1. How much and how deep is Turkey willing to commit in Syria? Some material support in the north mainly focused on suppressing Kurds is very different than entire Turkish brigades officialy heading to Damascus or further south in support of the government.
2. How willing is Israel to attack Turkish targets? I mean, mainland Turkey is probably of limits and south of Damascus remaining demilitarized is the stated position, but where are the red lines exactly?
3. To what extent Israel and Turkey are coordinating? Hostilities between the two are at least in part theatre. It’s entirely plausible they either have, or are in the the process of designing the future of Syria between themselves.
It’s pretty straightforward in geopolitical terms.
Both Türkiye and Israel know that the hegemonic powers of the Cold War era are losing interest and influence in the region. Russia appears to have largely given up. The US is unpredictable, given its political instability, but tending towards isolationism.
This means the time has come for regional powers.
Of which there are three to worry about.
The first is Iran and its network of proxies – the “Axis of Resistance”.
The second is Türkiye.
The third is Israel.
Of the three, Iran took the first shot at hegemony – or was dragged into attempting to take the first shot, through its unwise deal with Hamas. Iran’s plan was to surround Israel with proxies, keep a simmering conflict with Israel alive, and use the resulting prestige to its advantage – pressuring its Sunni Arab enemies not to make a deal with Israel. However, Hamas’ unwise attack on Israel, whether with Iranian blessing or not, backfired spectacularly; while it did succeed in temporarily isolating Israel from other Arab nations, it resulted in a complete humiliation for Iran and destruction for its proxies and ally, Syria. In a cascade effect, Hezbollah was smashed, which led directly to the downfall of Assad, who relied on Hezbollah muscle (and Russian AirPower) to survive.
This also gave Türkiye a boost, as it was rebels backed by Türkiye who took over in Syria.
Now Israel and Türkiye are always going to be at odds, as both have ambitions in the Med – they clash over access to the vast natural gas fields that have been discovered there (an issue which seeks to have dropped out of sight lately). More fundamentally, they are both regional powers, and now that Iran has been beaten and humiliated, the largest two still standing.
For Sunni Arab nations, the dilemma is this: their population throughly hates Israel, now moreso than ever. However, their leaders know very well that a deal with Israel is in their best interests. Israel has proven military power and technology, and has zero ambitions affecting anyone but its immediate neighbours.
Türkiye, on the other hand, is very ambitious – memories of the Ottoman Empire loom large in the imagination of Erdogan, who like Putin has a long historical memory – although Türkiye’s reach exceeds its grasp. For example, in its recent interventions in North Africa. For another example, both Saudi Arabia and Türkiye have competing concerns over leadership of the Sunni world.
Thus, Sunni nations like Saudi Arabia are caught in a bit of a dilemma. Whatever they may say publicly, they will never be anything but opposed to a Shia revolutionary nation like Iran, and the rise of Iranian power (and its largely Shia proxies) will always be a danger. Yet they also would not welcome the rise of an ambitious Sunni Türkiye, who has historically colonized them and still has ambitions to lead the Sunni world. Their best bet to keep independent would be to make a deal with Israel – yet their populating utterly loathes Israel.
I seriously doubt Türkiye and Israel would come into direct conflict, it would be utterly disastrous for both of them and they must know it. More likely would be a competitive race to enlist support, with various Sunni Arab nations playing one against the other as best they can for their own advantage.
Everyone says this is unrealistic since no sane country will attack Turkey. True but overconfident, crazy one still can and Israel definitely fits the profile.
Comments are closed.