The Intifada That Hasn’t Arrived: Why Have Israel’s Recent Wars Led to Little Terrorism and No Mass Uprising?

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1. [SS from essay by Daniel Byman, Professor in the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University and the Director of the Warfare, Irregular Threats, and Terrorism Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.]

   The Middle East is in crisis, and Israel is at the center of the storm. Since Hamas’s surprise attack on October 7, 2023, that killed around 1,200 Israelis, the Israeli military has assailed and occupied much of the Gaza Strip, ramped up operations in the West Bank, struck Houthi targets in Yemen, devastated Hezbollah in Lebanon, hit nuclear and military sites in Iran, and bombed parts of Syria. All these adversaries have links to terrorism: in the decades before October 7, Hamas and Hezbollah used terrorism against Israel, killing over 1,000 civilians as well as many soldiers. Through its proxies and on its own, Iran has attacked Israeli and Jewish targets around the world. The Trump administration recently redesignated the Houthis as a terrorist group, while the new ruler of Syria, Ahmed al-Shara, led a group once affiliated with al-Qaeda.

   In the circumstances, [Israel](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/regions/israel) appears to be courting a new wave of terrorist attacks, maybe even a wider uprising. The war in Gaza has caused tremendous civilian suffering. At the same time, Israel is squeezing the West Bank with raids on suspected terrorist hideouts. Those operations have caused approximately 1,000 deaths and displaced tens of thousands more Palestinians. Along with the expansion of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and numerous Jewish settler depredations there, Palestinians and Arab citizens of Israel have many reasons to be outraged at Israel.

2. Also from the article;

   “With no political solution in sight, Israel will likely continue its “mow the grass” approach to Gaza and the wider region. It will focus on reducing the capacities of its enemies, acknowledging that any military campaign will have only temporary effects and that Israel will eventually need to do it again and again to keep the threat from growing back. Such a strategy may succeed in protecting Israelis from terrorist violence. But it will invariably harm civilians and reduce the chances of a political settlement in the long term. In seeking to protect itself from terrorism, Israel will be creating costly occupations and forever wars that will drain its economy, worsen social divisions, and deepen the country’s international isolation.”

   Well said, and I’d add, they can only maintain that state while they have the support of an entity with a near infinite money hack, like the USA, which builds more global resentments, potentially leading to other terrorist attack targets as a response to Israel’s actions.

   If the leaders of Israel think they can keep this up forever, that’s one heck of a gamble.

3. Jews are being attacked and harassed all over the world for the simple reason for being Jewish, Intafada is already here.

4. One thing this article doesn’t mention is the fact that not attacking other actors serves to put political pressure on Israel.

   Our collective memory is short, and Gen Z didn’t grow up with stories of suicide bombers detonating themselves with bombs packed with nails and ball bearings in cafes across the Middle East, North Africa, and even Europe on the nightly news.

   Plane hijackings haven’t happened since 9/11, nor will that tactic ever work again as passengers won’t ever let hijackers into the cockpit in today’s world.

   Also, and this is super important: Even when it’s very obviously a terror attack the news likes to say “motive unknown” when the attention is on whatever happened.

   Then a week or so later after the news cycle has moved on they’ll maybe say “Oh wow, yeah, that guy with the chest length beard who set the Jewish governor’s mansion on fire during the Jewish holiday while he and his family were home was doing it for Palestine. Who could have possibly guessed that? Same with the guy who shot two people coming out of the Jewish museum while shouting free Palestine. His motive could have literally been anything.”

   The pro Palestinian narrative hinges on playing the victim, and their “greatest hits reel” doesn’t really convey that message so I’m not surprised they’ve toned it down.

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