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There has been broad agreement about the greenhouse effect for over a century.
In 1824, Joseph Fourier calculated that Earth ought to be much colder given its distance from the sun, and theorized that the atmosphere acts as a blanket, trapping heat and keeping the planet warmer than it would be otherwise.
Scientists later hypothesized that higher concentrations of greenhouse gases could raise temperatures. In 1896, Svante Arrhenius attempted to quantify this; his predictions remain on the high end of current climate models.
The basic science of the greenhouse effect is fairly simple: certain atmospheric gases such as carbon dioxide trap and redirect outgoing heat; some is radiated back downward, causing heat build up and temperatures to rise.
In 2021, the IPCC concluded it is unequivocal that human emission of greenhouse gases are the primary cause of modern warming.
See a full discussion of this at Skeptical Science
This fact brief is responsive to conversations such as this one.
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