July 29, 2025

ISLAMABAD – Pakistan is currently grappling with severe urban flooding triggered by erratic and intensified rainfall events — a clear manifestation of climate change. In 2024 and 2025, the country’s major cities have been lashed by record-breaking downpours, overwhelming fragile drainage systems and displacing thousands. The latest wave of flooding in 2025 has already claimed the lives of at least 242 people, with more fatalities feared as fresh storms loom.

These floods, while destructive, highlight a squandered opportunity — the inability to store excess water. Limited dam storage and poor urban watershed management result in the loss of floodwaters as runoff, rather than their storage for dry spells.

Climate scientists have repeatedly warned about extreme weather volatility, with floods and droughts alternating as the new normal for South Asia. Without resilient water storage infrastructure and rainwater harvesting, both urban and rural areas in Pakistan will remain trapped in a cycle of water excess followed by water scarcity.

A strategic and economic threat

By various measures of water availability, from the Falkenmark index — an indicator used to measure water scarcity — to the water poverty index, Pakistan currently stands as the 15th most water-stressed nation in the world.

Per the International Organisation for Migration (IOM), Pakistan is predicted to slip into absolute water scarcity by 2035 — a frightening prospect for the world’s fifth most populous country. According to the World Wildlife Fund-Pakistan (WWF-P), the country’s annual per capita water availability has plummeted from about 5,600 cubic meters in 1947 to just 930 cubic meters in 2023 — dangerously below the level conventionally defined as water scarcity. According to Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) of the United Nations, Pakistan’s water stress is among the highest globally, underscoring that securing the resource is now a matter of national survival.

Put simply: we are hurtling toward an inevitable crisis of catastrophic proportions.

Water woes and climate change go hand in hand

Adding to Pakistan’s water crisis is the relentless pressure of climate change. According to the Global Climate Risk Index, although Pakistan contributes only a fraction of global greenhouse gas emissions, it ranks among the top 10 countries most impacted by climate change. The country has faced unprecedented heatwaves in recent years — extreme temperatures that have caused water reservoirs and dams to lose up to 20 per cent of their capacity through evaporation.

Meanwhile, global warming has accelerated the melting of glaciers in the Hindu Kush–Himalayan region, which supplies over 75pc of the Indus River’s flow. These trends threaten to destabilise the timing and volume of river waters that Pakistan has relied upon for millennia. Looking ahead, the World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP) stated that Pakistan’s average temperature is projected to rise by 4.9°C by 2090, foretelling even greater hydrological volatility. Erratic monsoon rains and a vicious cycle of drought followed by flood have already become the new normal.

The human and economic toll of this volatility is mounting. Rainfall patterns across the country have grown increasingly unpredictable, And when it rains, it often unleashes devastating downpours. The catastrophic floods of 2022 are a case in point: nearly one-third of the country was submerged, causing almost $30 billion in economic losses and 1,765 fatalities.

Such climate-exacerbated disasters devastate infrastructure, displace millions, and directly undermine water infrastructure by silting up dams and contaminating freshwater supplies. In essence, climate change is amplifying Pakistan’s water stress, making dry seasons drier and wet seasons wetter — a recipe for sustained crisis.

Indus Waters Treaty under strain

Water scarcity in Pakistan is not just a domestic issue but a regional geopolitical flashpoint. The Indus Waters Treaty of 1960, a model of water sharing between Pakistan and India, is now facing a severe threat.

The treaty gave Pakistan exclusive rights to the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab rivers (the western rivers of the Indus basin), which together provide over 80pc of Pakistan’s irrigation water and around one-third of its electricity generation capacity. For decades, this arrangement maintained a fragile peace over water. However, today a combination of factors — ranging from climbing demand and geopolitical tensions to climate-induced flow variability — are testing the limits of the treaty.

A study in 2021 stated that there are signs of declining flows in the western rivers, a trend some attribute to changing weather patterns and upstream diversions. Pakistan has repeatedly raised concerns over India’s construction of large upstream hydropower projects like Kishanganga and Ratle, fearing they could eventually diminish downstream flows. These concerns have even been taken to the World Bank indicating how contentious the issue has become.

Tensions spiked further in early 2025, when India announced to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty following a terrorist attack in Pahalgam in Indian occupied Kashmir. India, without presenting evidence or conducting a thorough investigation, hastily placed blame on Pakistan — following its repeated pattern of blame and making this a poor pretext to suspend the treaty. This unprecedented declaration sent shockwaves through Pakistan.

The New York Times reported that if India were to unilaterally withhold or redirect waters, Pakistan’s farming heartlands in Punjab and Sindh could face up to a 35pc reduction in water availability in critical growing seasons. Such a scenario is nothing short of a nightmare for a country whose economy and food supply are so deeply tied to these rivers.

Fortunately, immediate disruption is constrained by geography and infrastructure — during the summer monsoon, the Indus system carries huge flows that India currently lacks the capacity to fully capture or store. Nevertheless, the risk is very real in drier months: India could manipulate flows, potentially causing drought-like conditions or conversely releasing water without warning to create flash floods downstream.

Pakistan’s vulnerability is compounded by its own limited storage capacity. The country can only store about 30 days’ worth of water, far below the 120-day international benchmark for water security. With this limited capacity, Pakistan cannot effectively bank surplus rainwater or glacial melt for lean times. This precarious situation makes Pakistan highly exposed to any upstream disruptions and to any extreme weather event.

Food security under threat

With a heavily water-dependent agricultural sector, the implications of dwindling water supplies for food production are both immediate and severe.

A study reported that approximately three-quarters of the freshwater is consumed by just four crops: wheat, sugarcane, cotton, and rice. The policies favoring these corps over the decades, have made farmers gradually shifting away from traditional, more drought-tolerant crops like millet and barley to these cash crops. This unsustainable cropping pattern is further straining groundwater and river systems. These cash crops are already experiencing the impact. The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) stated in a report that in recent years, cotton production plummeted by about 41pc, largely due to flood damage and waterlogging, which in turn dealt a blow to the textile industry and rural employment.

Wheat yields have increased slightly, but its growth rate (under 2.5pc per year) lags behind the global average, partly because water shortages and erratic weather have hampered productivity. The 2022 floods alone destroyed 2.4 million hectares of cropland, wiping out food stocks and farmers’ livelihoods overnight.

In light of these challenges, the SBP recorded a slowdown in agricultural growth, attributing it to climate stress and water scarcity undermining the output of key crops. With agriculture still employing a large share of Pakistan’s workforce and feeding its population, such water-driven shocks propagate a broader economic crisis. The sustained water stress could ignite a vicious cycle: poor harvests, rising food prices, rural unemployment, and ultimately threats to economic and social stability.

Policy gaps and the way forward

Given the gravity of the situation, one would expect a swift and robust policy response. Unfortunately, meaningful actions have been hindered by slow policy response and poor execution. The National Water Policy of 2018 and infrastructure projects like the Diamer-Bhasha dam were deemed as long-term solutions to Pakistan’s water stress. While these initiatives were steps in the right direction, progress on them has been painfully slow.

The key challenges in addressing are funding issues, bureaucratic red tape, and inter-provincial mistrust over water sharing. In addition to that, politically tough but crucial measures — such as installing water meters to curb waste, regulating groundwater extraction, and incentivising crop diversification — remain largely sidelined.

Breaking out of this paralysis requires both institutional reform and international diplomacy. On the diplomatic front, Pakistan must take a proactive role in engaging India — and, where necessary, involve mediators like the World Bank or other international partners — to adapt and reinforce the Indus Waters Treaty.

Multilateral forums could help update the treaty’s frameworks, incorporating climate adaptation (such as data sharing on glacial melt and monsoon forecasts) so that the spirit of equitable water sharing endures despite new pressures.

Moreover, the government urgently needs to enforce water-use regulations — for instance, by rigorously metering large consumers and clamping down on illegal wells — to prevent wasteful usage. Investing in modern irrigation techniques is equally important: moving from traditional flood irrigation to drip irrigation and other water-saving technologies can dramatically reduce agricultural water consumption.

Likewise, incentivising rainwater harvesting and watershed rehabilitation would help capture rainfall and recharge aquifers rather than letting precious water simply flow out to sea. Expanding the country’s water storage capacity (through both large dams and small local reservoirs) is crucial to buffer against seasonal variability; Pakistan cannot afford to remain a country that runs on a month’s worth of water.

Finally, farmers should be encouraged to diversify crops and adopt climate-smart agriculture — for example, by shifting incentives and support toward less water-intensive grains and developing varieties that can withstand droughts or floods. These adaptations in farming practices will be key to aligning the country’s agricultural demands with its water reality.

Pakistan’s water scarcity truly is a ticking time bomb, but it is not one without a defuse mechanism. What is needed is the political will to act before it’s too late. Delaying the policy action narrows the options and multiplies the economic and environmental costs. Adopting multi-faced solutions through the combination of institutional reforms at home and effective diplomacy abroad, we can begin to secure our water future. The challenge is immense, but the cost of inaction would be far greater.

Ensuring water security is not just about avoiding droughts or floods; it is about safeguarding Pakistan’s very viability as a stable and prosperous nation.

Sahar Arshad Mahmood is an assistant professor at the School of Economics and Social Sciences (SESS), IBA Karachi. She holds a PhD in Economics from Clark University, with a research specialisation in environmental economics. Her current research is focused on exploring the nexus between climate change, environmental economics, and sustainable economic development in Pakistan’s landscape.

Muhammad Salman Khalid is an assistant professor at the School of Economics and Social Sciences, IBA Karachi. A Fulbright Scholar, he earned his PhD in Economics from Claremont Graduate University, California. His current research spans health economics, crime, women’s empowerment, and climate change.