The IMEU’s Policy Project, founded in 2024, has paid for several studies of the Democratic electorate’s Israel views, previously conducted by YouGov.
During that year’s election, they found that then-nominee Kamala Harris could win votes by supporting an “arms embargo” on Israel, which the nominee did not do. In January, they found that 29% of voters who backed Joe Biden in 2020 abandoned Harris over her “administration’s support for Israel’s genocide.” (The group switched from YouGov to DFP because of DFP’s experience polling New York City specifically.)
“Support for blocking bombs to Israel, recognizing Israel’s genocide in Gaza, and holding Israel accountable for its violations of the law is not simply the opinion of the majority of Democratic voters,” said DeReus. “It is the vast, vast majority, and any Democrat who stands with [the American Israel Public Affairs Committee] instead of their own voters is running the real risk of getting voted out of office.”
Other pollsters have found overlapping trends, as Democrats have grown more supportive of the Palestinians’ cause and more critical of Israel. In 2023, for the first time, Gallup found that more Democrats’ “sympathies” were with the Palestinians, by an 11-point margin. In a poll released this year, the gap had grown to 38 points.
Data like that was encouraging to Mamdani’s campaign, which navigated a series of news cycles about his criticism of Israel, from his support for arresting Netanyahu to his initial refusal to condemn the phrase “globalize the intifada.” Though he’s cleared the Democratic primary, he still faces a packed November election against Mayor Eric Adams, former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa, and independent Jim Walden.
IMEU’s polling, like most polling during the election, found that voters prioritized issues like housing costs and education over candidates’ stances on the war in Gaza. Just 27% of Democrats said that “relations with Israel” played a role in their vote.
“I was more surprised at how people were treating Mamdani for the whole election than by the results of our poll,” said Ryan O’Donnell, DFP’s executive director. “Mamdani was the one candidate largely in line with Democrats’ opinions.”
Beth Miller, the political director of Jewish Voice for Peace Action, said she was “not shocked” by the polling.” Her group endorsed Mamdani as soon as he entered the race; Miller personally volunteered as a canvasser for Mamdani’s campaign, where she found that “Zohran’s support for Palestinian rights was a pull for a lot of people,” including many young Jewish voters.
“Democrats should pay very close attention, and act accordingly, by ending US support for this genocide,” Miller said. “Someone like Chuck Schumer, someone like Hakeem Jeffries, someone like [New York Rep.] Dan Goldman — “they have voted to send more arms to Israel as it slaughters and starves Palestinians in Gaza, and that must end.”
Some progressives have already discussed challenges to Jeffries and Goldman, after Mamdani carried their districts. Usamah Andrabi, the communications director of Justice Democrats, said that “these results should wake Democrats up to just how out of touch AIPAC has paid them to be with their own voters.”