According to a new Emerson College poll released over the weekend, Vice President J.D. Vance would beat Governor Gavin Newsom in a hypothetical 2028 Presidential matchup, with Vance winning by three points of the vote.
In the poll, Emerson pitted three of the four top Democratic candidates against Vance – Newsom, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, and Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY). In each matchup, Vance won, with slightly different degrees of success. When faced off against Buttigieg, Vance has a narrow 44%-43% lead, with Buttigieg managing to grab more centrist voters. Pitted against AOC, Vance won by 3 points in a 44%-41% finish. However, when placed against Newsom, Vance also has a 3 point lead, 45% to 42%.
It should be noted that, in each contest, between 13% and 15% of voters remained undecided, showing a large block that could tilt the race either way, albeit with a harder climb for Democrats than Republicans. When contrasted against the last three elections, Trump won in 2016 despite being 2% below the popular vote, Biden won in 2020 but needed a 5 point advantage to win enough electoral votes, and Trump easily won last year with a 1.5% advantage over Kamala Harris. Based on this, a Democratic candidate would need a 2-4% point advantage to win against a Republican, with the poll showing that none of them currently do.
“A key takeaway from the ballot tests is that about 13% of the electorate remains persuadable, while the other 87% have already settled on a party preference,” explained Emerson College Polling executive director Spencer Kimball.
However, another takeaway is that, amongst the top 4 candidates, Newsom is the weakest, with more Americans pulling for Vance against him and the Governor needing to convince most undecided voters to vote for him to have a chance in 2028. With 13% of voters being undecided in the matchup, Newsom would need to get around 10% of the 13% undecided count to even have a chance to beat Vance, as the GOP still have that electoral vote advantage.
Not included in the poll was Harris, who would arguably be Vance’s biggest challenger based on current trends. Currently, Harris is leading Buttigieg by 4 points in National Democratic polling, although her number have slipped dramatically in the past few months. Harris is still very much a wildcard, as she is still deciding between a 2026 California gubernatorial run, a 2028 presidential run, or staying out of both races. Buttigieg and even Newsom have been gaining on her in terms of popularity in recent months, with Harris showing a big weakness in terms of young voter support. Nonetheless, as it stands, Harris is still currently considered the Democrats best hope in 2028, although it it still very early and the midterms haven’t even come yet.
While the Democrats are currently juggling through several candidates, with more likely to be thrown into the mix as midterms come closer, the GOP has largely placed Vance as their candidate of choice for 2028. Nationally, he currently has 49% of Republicans already supporting him for, the next election with only Trump Organization executive Donald Trump Jr. and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis cracking 10%.
As of Monday evening, no one has officially announced for 2028 yet, with Newsom stating just last month that “I’m not thinking about running, but it’s a path that I could see unfold.”
