Eurozone consumers are dialing back their inflation fears. The European Central Bank’s June survey showed 12-month inflation expectations easing to 2.6%, down from 2.8% in Maylanding back at January levels, before trade tensions flared up. Longer-term views were unmoved, with 3-year and 5-year projections holding at 2.4% and 2.1%, respectively. It’s the kind of data that gives the ECB room to pause without raising eyebrows.
That’s exactly what happened last week. After eight rate cuts in twelve months, the ECB hit the brakes. President Christine Lagarde signaled the central bank is in wait-and-see mode. Inflation is hovering near target, and the economy isn’t veering off course. Meanwhile, spending expectations edged down to 3.2% from 3.5%, and income growth held steady at 1%. Mortgage rate expectations dipped slightly to 4.3%, while home price outlooks nudged down to 3.1%.
There was one more optimistic twist: labor market sentiment. Consumers now expect the unemployment rate to drop to 10.3% in a year’s timea modest but meaningful shift. For investors, especially those watching rate-sensitive names like Tesla TSLA, the broader message is clear: the ECB isn’t rushing into its next move. That pause could give equities some breathing room, especially in sectors that thrive when rates stabilize.