The trade agreement signed on Sunday (27) between the U.S. and the European Union, cutting tariffs on EU exports to the U.S. from 30% to 15%, is viewed as a setback for Europe and one that carries negative spillover effects for Brazil. Experts interviewed by Valor warn that the deal could cost Brazil market share in Europe, at a time when the country is already bracing for 50% tariffs announced by Donald Trump on its exports to the U.S.

From January to June this year, Brazil exported $23.9 billion to EU countries and imported $24.5 billion, according to Brazil’s Ministry of Industry, Foreign Trade and Services.

Welber Barral, a former foreign trade secretary and founding partner at consultancy BMJ, said trade deals signed by the U.S. place Brazil at a commercial disadvantage. “The immediate challenge for Brazil is to try to delay the implementation of these U.S. tariffs and to pursue new trade agreements. We only have this week to act,” he warned. The new tariffs are set to take effect on August 1.

José Augusto de Castro, president of Brazil’s Foreign Trade Association (AEB), said the U.S.–EU deal makes it harder for Brazil to redirect exports to Europe. “American goods will face fewer barriers there, making the competition even tougher,” he said. Mr. Castro believes Brazil has limited room to respond in the short term, adding that the agreement leaves the country more isolated on the global trade stage.

He emphasized that the current trade diplomacy is largely political. “We were a little late to the game. We missed the train when it came to negotiations. At this point, it’s more about politics than commerce,” he said.

Ambassador José Alfredo Graça Lima, vice president of the board at the Brazilian Center for International Relations (Cebri) and Brazil’s chief trade negotiator from 1998 to 2002, downplayed the direct impact of the U.S.–EU agreement on Brazil, arguing that the two countries don’t directly compete in Europe. “At this stage, Brazil should begin thinking about a tariff-reduction program to better integrate with global markets, boost productivity in manufacturing, and enhance competitiveness,” Mr. Graça Lima said.

Flavia Loss de Araujo, a professor of international relations at Instituto Mauá de Tecnologia and researcher on EU–Mercosur negotiations, said the agreement is broadly unpopular within Europe, with countries like France and Germany voicing dissatisfaction. “A 15% tariff is better than 30%, but it’s still worse than what they had before,” she said.

Before the trade war, average U.S. tariffs on EU exports were just 1.47%, while EU tariffs on U.S. goods averaged 1.35%, according to an April report by Brussels-based think tank Bruegel. Under the new agreement, the EU is set to invest $600 billion in the U.S. and commit to buying $750 billion in American energy.

For Brazil, the implications may be even more severe. As Mr. Araujo notes, Brazil primarily exports commodities—goods that are more easily replaced—unlike the manufactured products that dominate U.S.–EU trade flows.

On Monday (July 28), Mr. Trump said the U.S. would impose tariffs of 15% to 20% on “the rest of the world,” referring to countries that don’t strike trade deals with Washington. It remains unclear whether Brazil is included in that group.

“For now, what Trump is doing is preserving ambiguity and sowing anxiety among all negotiating partners, including Brazil. It’s a tactic to force a deal that he can spin as a victory,” said Antonio Ramalho, director of the International Relations Institute at the University of Brasília (UnB).

Mr. Graça Lima added that the global trading system is moving toward a “network of managed trade agreements.” “This is not free trade. This is not preferential trade. This is managed trade,” he said, referencing the growing use of quotas and restrictions in U.S. trade policy.