The BoC is widely expected to hold its policy rate today, with a recent poll giving just seven per cent odds of a quarter-point cut from Canada’s central bank.

What about the rest of 2025? Here’s what some economists have to say about today’s decision and beyond:

CIBC’s Ali Jaffery and Avery Shenfeld expect a hold from the BoC today, followed by cuts in September and December.

“Our prime minister is publicly musing about tariffs becoming the permanent state of affairs, and there appears little in the way of short-term fiscal support from Ottawa to alleviate the economic pain,” they wrote in a recent research report.

“We would be surprised if they didn’t recognize that the economy is going to need some rate relief until fiscal policy is a more active participant in the fray.”

“We’re expecting the Bank of Canada to leave the overnight rate unchanged again on Wednesday,” RBC’s Claire Fan and Abbey Xu wrote in a report last week.

“Sticky inflation readings, a weakening but relatively resilient economic backdrop, and prospects of larger fiscal spending, are reasons why we do not expect the BoC will cut again in this cycle.”

TD Bank’s Maria Solovieva says recent data “don’t signal a collapse, but they don’t suggest strength either.” For her, better-than-expected June jobs figures “sealed a hold” from the Bank of Canada today.

“The real question now is whether it stays on hold in September and beyond,” Solovieva wrote last week. “For now, markets are only pricing in half a cut by year-end.”

Over at BMO, chief economist Doug Porter says the odds of a rate cut today are “not zero,” given the threat of U.S. tariffs.

“At this point, there is a bit less than a 50 per cent chance of even one cut priced in for the rest of 2025,” he wrote in a July 25 report. “We lean to the dovish side of the market, with a somewhat pessimistic view on the prospect for U.S. tariffs, and a relatively optimistic view on underlying inflation.”

National Bank’s Taylor Schleich is also predicting a third straight hold from the BoC today.

“Unlike the prior two decisions, there’s little doubt about this one,” he wrote last week. “Those who had earlier been expecting a cut in July, us included, were dealt a blow this month when hiring was reported to have surged in June and underlying inflation failed to moderate.”

“To us, the disinflationary pressures associated with marginal economic slack will outweigh tariff-related cost pressures which should keep all-items CPI contained and moderate core inflation,” Schleich added.

“Our outlook is consistent with the BoC coming off the sidelines again, and with very little easing priced, a bet on further cuts offers an attractive risk-reward profile.”