The United Arab Emirates has indicated that it could raise its oil production capacity to 6 million barrels per day after 2027, a move that would solidify the Mideast Gulf state’s rank as Opec-plus’ No. 3 capacity holder. While that capacity level is theoretically achievable, some observers question how long it might take to get there. Any further UAE capacity additions would require a mix of offshore and onshore expansions, with the massive Upper Zakum field — arguably Abu Dhabi’s most valuable oil asset — necessarily being at the center of the increase. State Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. (Adnoc) accounts for nearly all of the UAE’s hydrocarbon output and quietly disclosed last year that it had reached production capacity of 4.85 million b/d. Officially, Adnoc is targeting 5 million b/d of capacity by 2027, moving the deadline forward from 2030 in a strategic shift three years ago. Reaching 6 million b/d would therefore require an additional 1.1 million b/d in capacity beyond the current official level. At the Opec International Seminar in Vienna in July, UAE Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei said the country “can go to 6 million b/d if the market requires,” but added that it is not an official target.
