Are Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea Working together? Meet the ‘Axis of Upheaval’
Russia is facing crippling sanctions, but it continues to sell oil and other goods to China and other countries.
North Korea is sending soldiers to Russia to fight on the front lines against Ukraine. Russia also remains one of the few major backers of Iran, while Iran has supplied the Russians with drones.
Are all of these countries working together to form a global “axis” of sorts? A new report examines that question.
Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Nicholas Lokker write for the Washington, D.C. think tank of the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) about what they call “The Axis of Upheaval,” involving the interlocking interests and actions of those four countries.
And it starts, they write, with Russia’s war in Ukraine.
An Invasion and a Convergence
“Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 was a critical catalyst for cooperation among Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea – what the authors call the ‘axis of upheaval,’” the executive summary of the report says.
“Already, defense cooperation between these countries has enabled Russian aggression against Ukraine, increased their military capabilities in ways that make each country a more formidable threat, emboldened their more brazen and destabilizing actions, and magnified gray zone actions against the United States and its allies.”
The four countries do not have a formal alliance, but the writers do point to “cooperation [that] occurs bilaterally among specific dyads of the axis, that cooperation is increasingly beneficial to the overall group.
“Russian advancements on the battlefield in Ukraine and experience in modern warfare, for example, are diffusing to each axis country. Iranian drone technology now flows through Russia to North Korea and China, and Russian defense officials frequently travel from one axis capital to the next, creating connectivity among multiple members of the axis that would not otherwise exist,” the summary says.
And while there are indications that Russia and China were providing only limited support for Iran in its recent war with Israel – including the report, denied by the Russians, that they had urged Iran to accept a “zero enrichment” deal during ongoing nuclear discussions – cooperation continues in other ways.
“China, Iran, and North Korea deliberated for months on the sidelines of Russia’s war before moving to more fully support Moscow after its full-scale invasion of Ukraine,” the summary says. “China gave little more than its diplomatic support to the Kremlin in the first months after Russia’s invasion, and it was nearly six months until public reports documented the arrival of Iran’s drones in Russia.”
A Question of Incentives
“The incentives fueling their cooperation have not changed since Israel’s actions against Iran, and, if anything, Russia, China, and North Korea are likely to see value in helping Tehran reconstitute its capacity to antagonize the United States and create policy dilemmas for Washington,” the authors write.
The authors argue that cooperation is likely to continue, even if the Russia-Ukraine war reaches an end at some point this year.
“Russia’s aims go beyond Ukraine, and Moscow will continue to view cooperation with China, Iran, and North Korea as essential to accomplishing these aims,” the authors write.
And even if the Trump administration makes nice with Putin, amid Trump’s recent vocal frustration with the Russian leader, Russia and China will still have plenty of reasons to cooperate.
“Through their cooperation, these countries are also gaining valuable information and learning lessons that may strengthen each country’s military, and their collaboration will likely increase the resilience of their regimes,” the executive summary concludes.
“Finally, cooperation among the axis countries may undercut the global nuclear and missile nonproliferation regime—thereby weakening strategic stability. Policymakers can no longer afford to view these countries as discrete threats but instead must understand—and disrupt—the growing connections among them.”
About the Author: Stephen Silver
Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist, and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review, and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has authored thousands of articles that focus on politics, national security, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter.
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