‘You may not have the best hand’: Former U.S. ambassador on Canada negotiating with Trump

12 comments

1. David Cohen, the former U.S. Ambassador to Canada, argues that the complexities of U.S.-Canada relations are shaped by a combination of recent tensions and the current economic asymmetry between the two nations. He points out that while Canada has made progress in defense spending discussions, the reliance on U.S. markets creates a challenging negotiation landscape, where Canada may overestimate its leverage. Specifically, Cohen highlights that three-quarters of Canada’s exports go to the U.S., while only 17% of U.S. exports are destined for Canada, illustrating the significant imbalance in their trade relationship. He emphasizes that achieving a new trade deal will require Canada to deliver concrete results rather than just promises, particularly in defense commitments. Ultimately, he encourages Canadians to appreciate their unique role in the relationship, recognizing that their contributions can influence U.S. foreign policy, despite the inherent power dynamics at play.

2. Canada may not have the *Best* hand …
   But we do understand when the ‘Dealer’ is dealing from the bottom of the Deck.

3. I’d rather go through an economic downturn and find other trading partners than to be complicit with a fascist regime down south.

4. He offers no insight. Canadians are well aware of the asymmetry. Canadians are expecting pain, and have weighed the costs and benefits of accepting a deal that serves the U.S. admin’s zero sum worldview.

5. No shit. The difference is that usually the US is not literally an adversary.

6. The fact these morons constantly compare it to gambling only shows that it is our leaders in USA blindly gambling, not engaging in geopolitics or strategy.

   Only a drunkard, lout, or addict frame major business or economic decisions in the context of addictive games of chance.

7. The Canadian situation is sign a shitty deal with Trump (which will have no substance because there is not trump negotiation team to hammer out any details) or wait 4 years, and in the meantime focus on domestic harmonization of trade and professional policy’s which will offset any damage Trump can do economically.

8. At some point most of these countries are going to just tough it out for the next 3.5 years rather than give in to his ego.

9. Its funny how every time I see a headline from someone saying this, it’s someone who works/worked in the US gov.

   No kidding things aren’t going to be great but we have a better hand than you want us to think we have. We know how much US industry requires Canadian raw material inputs. Canadians will not give in to your shallow confidence, we can play this game of chicken till the whole North American economy collapses if needed.

   This is bigger than just trade.

10. I’d rather have my country’s leadership find reliable partners and wean Canada off the US trading reliance.

11. I like his message. He’s saying Canada is an important partner, we should be proud. But we also should refrain from bluffing with leverage we don’t have. This is why I want our politicians to be quiet and let the diplomats handle things

12. Canada’s big worry is Trump driving the Yanks over a cliff and dragging down Canada with them. And it looks like Trump is approaching that cliff in record time.

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