Brent crude oil prices are likely to climb to $80 per barrel in the coming months, as rising geopolitical tensions—particularly between the US and Russia—threaten to disrupt global oil supplies, according to industry experts.
Speaking to ANI, N.S. Ramaswamy, Head of Commodities & CRM at Ventura Securities, projected that Brent futures (October 2025) could rise from the current $72.07 level to $76 in the short term, and touch $80–82 by the end of 2025. He added that $69 would act as the downside support level.
Factors pushing up crude oil prices
US President Donald Trump’s recent ultimatum to Russia—to end the war in Ukraine within 10–12 days or face fresh sanctions, including secondary tariffs of up to 100% on countries doing business with Moscow.
If enforced, such penalties could send oil prices soaring, as buyers of Russian crude would be caught between cheaper barrels and steep trade costs.
The ripple effects aren’t limited to Brent. WTI crude (September 2025) could also move higher—from $69.65 to $73 in the near term, and up to $76–79 by year-end, with downside support around $65.
Experts warn that the market could see a supply shock if Russian oil is squeezed out, as global spare production capacity is already tight. Energy analyst Narendra Taneja pointed out that Russia contributes 5 million barrels per day to global supply—removing that could spike prices to $100–120 per barrel.
“India may not face an immediate supply crunch, given that its refiners import from 40 different countries. However, the bigger challenge would be managing the retail price impact for consumers,” Taneja said.
Even if Saudi Arabia and other OPEC nations step in to offset the shortfall, experts say it would take time, adding further upward pressure on prices. A market deficit could emerge unless OPEC+ raises output or halts planned cuts.
Meanwhile, a recent US-EU trade agreement and the ongoing US-China trade truce have helped stabilize market sentiment. However, uncertainty remains. The oil market is closely watching US inventory trends and the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate move. A stronger dollar has also capped oil price gains to some extent.