As Poland prepares for the inauguration Wednesday of its new president, Karol Nawrocki, the country finds itself at a pivotal crossroads.
A practicing Catholic and longtime conservative affiliated with the Law and Justice (PiS) camp, Nawrocki was elected after a tightly contested runoff election earlier this summer. While the Polish presidency is mostly symbolic in nature, its role can become especially consequential in moments of profound polarization.
Nawrocki’s election followed months of escalating cultural and political tensions under Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s liberal administration — in power since December 2023 — and it signals not only a potential recalibration of power but also a renewed contest over Poland’s political, moral and spiritual identity.
The two rounds of voting took place on May 18 and June 1, with Nawrocki narrowly winning with 50.89% of the vote against his liberal opponent Rafał Trzaskowski, who obtained 49.11%.
Poland operates under a parliamentary system in which executive authority is primarily exercised by the prime minister and the Council of Ministers. The president, while holding limited executive powers, retains important constitutional prerogatives, including the right to veto legislation, appoint top officials, and influence foreign and security policy.
A Divided Electorate
Nawrocki’s accession to power raises the question of what role a presidency that claims a Christian and conservative identity can play in a country characterized by both intense political polarization and a changing religious landscape.
While Poland remains one of the most Catholic countries in Europe, secularization has strongly intensified in recent years, particularly in the wake of the COVID crisis. Yet this shift is neither uniform nor definitive. The outcome of this mandate, therefore, not only reflects domestic tensions but also resonates with broader European debates surrounding the future of faith, national identities and the durability of traditional values in a rapidly evolving society.
According to Grzegorz Górny, a leading Catholic journalist, Nawrocki’s presidency may mark an important turning point.
“The right of veto can actually be a powerful tool,” he told the Register, noting that to override such a veto, the government coalition needs a three-fifths majority in the Sejm (the Polish parliament), which it currently lacks.
He emphasized that Tusk’s administration planned to introduce a bill to legalize abortion on demand last year and signaled new laws targeting the Church, including a decision to reduce by half the number of hours allocated to Catholic catechism classes in public schools — an emblematic move in a broader effort to reshape Christianity’s role in public life.
“The government planned to rapidly implement a cultural and moral revolution — Karol Nawrocki’s victory thwarted these plans,” he said.
More Confrontational Than Duda
Marek Matraszek, a seasoned political consultant familiar with both Polish and European public affairs, believes Nawrocki could have a greater political impact than his predecessor Andrzej Duda — not because of institutional power, but due to temperament and political positioning.
“Duda was seen as cautious and conciliatory; Nawrocki is more direct, more combative,” he said in an interview with the Register. For Matraszek, the unusually personal tone of his rivalry with Tusk — shaped by sharp campaign attacks — suggests a more confrontational political style ahead. Nawrocki, a former amateur boxer, may indeed bring a firmer stance to the presidency.
According to Matraszek, he could also seek to internationalize issues such as the rule of law and press freedom, using his platform to challenge the government’s trajectory both in Europe and abroad.
Nawrocki’s assertiveness comes at a time when Tusk is facing mounting political pressure. Since the election, Tusk has been challenged not only by the opposition but also by his own political base for failing to deliver promised societal reforms. A poll conducted just days before Nawrocki’s inauguration revealed that nearly half of Poles believe Tusk should resign.
On July 11, the prime minister called for a vote of confidence in the Sejm, acknowledging that his government was facing “greater challenges” following the presidential outcome.
“Just a few days ago, the newly appointed minister of justice removed almost 50 judges from leading administrative positions because he felt they had not sufficiently resisted what he saw as rule-of-law violations by the previous government,” said Matraszek.
Shifting Fault Lines and Challenges for the Church
Beyond legal and institutional dynamics, the ongoing battle is also cultural and generational in nature. Górny pointed to an unexpected development: Nawrocki’s support among young voters.
“It was a major surprise,” he said, “that the majority of young people supported right-wing candidates. Trzaskowski received only 12% of their votes in the first round.”
In this context, Matraszek contended that Polish society is no longer neatly divided along traditional ideological lines and that two overlapping polarizations are now emerging. One remains horizontal — between liberal and conservative worldviews. The other, which he calls a “vertical polarization,” pits the political establishment against rising anti-elite forces. This axis cuts across party lines and includes criticism of the institutional Church, increasingly seen by some as part of the entrenched order.
Both analysts acknowledge that the Church is also facing growing challenges.
Górny observed a dual trend among the youth: While some turn away under the influence of consumerist culture, others gravitate toward a new, non-confessional conservatism.
“Until recently, Catholicism was at the core of the conservative identity. Now, we see the rise of a secular right focused on patriotism, history and national security, but distant from the Church.” He noted in particular the rise of the Confederation Party — a secular, patriotic and anti-establishment movement — among younger voters.
Matraszek confirmed this shift and added nuance: “Church attendance is declining, but if you look closer, especially at 18- to 29-year-olds, there is already a small but notable revival of Christian identity — particularly among young men. It’s not just about institutional religion, but a rediscovery of Christian culture and meaning.”
The issue of abortion does not seem to have had a significant impact on the outcome of the election, contrary to what many observers had expected. While Western media often frame abortion as a central fault line in Polish politics, both Górny and Matraszek downplayed its importance this time.
“The topic was virtually absent,” Górny stated. “Even the three main right-wing candidates expressed their opposition to abortion in rape cases, and it barely stirred controversy.”
Matraszek explained why: “Nawrocki was cautious not to make abortion a central campaign issue, knowing it could mobilize the left. He promised to veto any liberalization, but avoided triggering emotional backlash.”
Continental Implications
Thus, what does Nawrocki’s presidency represent? For Górny, it is a kind of bulwark against ideological overreach and a sign that Poland’s Christian soul is far from extinguished. For Matraszek, it is also a moment of reckoning: an opportunity to reconnect Catholic values with a younger generation disillusioned by both aggressive progressivism and institutional rigidity.
In the coming years, Nawrocki’s ability to shape the national conversation — through moral authority, strategic vetoes, and potential international outreach — will be closely watched.
At stake is more than the balance of domestic power. Poland is at the forefront of broader European debates over political identity and spiritual continuity. Its ongoing cultural disputes and generational shifts — marked by both secularization and signs of renewal — offer a revealing case study of the tensions shaping many Western societies.
As Nawrocki assumes the presidency, the country’s future direction may continue to resonate well beyond its borders.