The EU’s deepening LNG dependency should support the bloc’s promise to ramp up US LNG imports as part of the recent trade deal with Washington.

However, meeting the steep targets of the deal will be difficult due to uncertainties over future global gas pricing and declining EU gas demand in the coming years, potentially capping additional LNG flows into the EU.

The EU has agreed to ramp up US energy imports — including LNG, oil and nuclear fuels — to the value of $750 billion over the next three years, or $250 billion each year, until the end of 2028.

The European Commission insists the figure is “based on a thorough and robust assessment.” But market participants generally agree that the bloc will not be able to hit the target.

Currently, the EU’s imports of US LNG, oil, nuclear fuel and fuel services amount to around $90-100 billion per year, the commission estimates.

Commission officials have urged market participants not to get hung up on the numbers and to wait for a more detailed agreement to try and establish possible projections for imports of each fuel.

At this stage, it is unclear if existing and ongoing long-term US LNG supply deals will count toward the $750 billion total. “We’ll have to wait for the agreement and then the details of what will be included,” a commission spokesperson tells Energy Intelligence.

The commission also admits that it is down to the market to decide on US LNG purchases, noting that it could help facilitate purchases of US LNG through the EU’s joint procurement platform. However, to date there is no clear evidence that the platform has helped secure material volumes of gas.

Both sides can do a lot to encourage additional commercial deals in the LNG space, but “neither government has any control over what happens commercially,” said Fred Hutchison, CEO of pro-US LNG export group LNG Allies.

Replacing Russian Gas

The EU’s push to phase out its roughly 30 billion cubic meters of Russian gas and LNG imports by the end of 2027 is expected to support growth in US LNG imports.

To accommodate increasing flows of LNG after the start of Russia’s war in Ukraine, the EU increased regasification capacity by 70 Bcm between 2022-24, The bloc’s regasification capacity is now standing at around 250 Bcm per year, more than double annual LNG imports, according to commission data.

Increasing US LNG to replace Russian gas appears to be the most credible option for the EU, as the bloc has largely failed to boost supply from other sources, while US liquefaction capacity continues to ramp up. The destination flexibility of US LNG also fits with the EU’s decarbonization goals, as any excess volumes that cannot be absorbed in the bloc can be resold elsewhere.

Energy Intelligence estimates show that the EU could import 10.5 Bcm of Russian piped gas in 2025, down from 26 Bcm in 2024, while LNG imports may total around 21 Bcm, down from last year’s 24 Bcm. Russian piped gas volumes transiting Ukraine were halted at the start of 2025 after Moscow and Kyiv failed to agree on a new transit deal, and US sanctions targeting Russian liquefaction plants have weighed on the EU’s Russian LNG imports.

Global gas prices are expected to fall as overall liquefaction capacity ramps up in the next few years, making it more difficult to meet the US energy pledge. The EU spent $23 billion on Russian fossil fuels in 2024, and replacing these volumes by ramping up US LNG could increase EU spending on US energy to around $125 billion based on Energy Intelligence estimates — still well short of the $250 billion annual target of the US-EU deal.

“This means the EU would need to import significantly higher volumes just to maintain current spending levels — let alone hit $250 billion annually,” consultancy Rystad Energy said in a recent report.

US LNG Capacity Additions

Existing and future US LNG export volumes will be destination flexible — meaning that no matter who contracts for the fuel, it will flow to the highest priced market, which is currently Europe.

All told, 75.4 million tons worth of long-term US LNG supply deals signed by European firms will be active over the trade deal period, according to data from commodity analytics firm Kpler.

Energy Intelligence expects US liquefaction capacity to reach 259 million tons by 2030, a tally that includes 120 million tons of operating capacity, plus 83 million tons currently under construction, and another 56 million tons of capacity that Energy Intelligence expects to start up between 2029 and 2030.

The US shipped 46 million tons of LNG to Europe in 2024, equivalent to about 53% of all US LNG exports, according to Kpler data.

During the year-to-date 2025 period, 42.7 million tons of US LNG went to Europe — equivalent to about 70% of all US LNG exports.

If the same share is extrapolated to future US export additions by 2030, this would represent some 181 million tons of LNG, or the EU’s entire currently operational regasification capacity.

Demand Uncertainty Remains

LNG is expected to meet an increasing share of EU natural gas demand due to the Russian import phaseout, as well as lower domestic production, experts say. However, doubts remain over how robust EU gas demand will be outside the scope of the EU-US trade deal.

High gas prices triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 have accelerated the decline in EU consumption, which is also being hit by rising renewable energy power generation capacity additions.

Natural gas demand in the EU fell by the equivalent of 70 Bcm annually between August 2022 and January 2025, according to the commission.

EU gas demand rose by 0.6% to approximately 333 Bcm in 2024, but consumption was still 12% below the 2019-23 average and 17% lower than 2017-21 precrisis levels, according to EU energy regulator group Acer.

Natural gas demand in 2025 will likely top 2024 given strong demand in the power sector, which, according to Eurostat data, is the largest consuming gas sector, accounting for 31.6% of the bloc’s total 2024 consumption.

“I reckon [EU gas demand] will be up in 2025 versus 2024 … but it depends on [fourth-quarter] weather a lot,” an analyst at a European trader says.

However, by the end of the EU’s US energy purchasing pledge in 2028, EU gas demand could total 298 Bcm if estimates under the EU’s binding Fit for 55 plan come to pass. Under the nonbinding RePowerEU plan, which sets out a more ambitious renewable energy rollout to help end Russian energy imports, EU gas demand could fall to 238 Bcm in 2028, 28.5% under 2024 demand figures.

The projected decline in gas demand will be dictated by the pace of the EU’s renewables rollout, which, other than solar additions, remains off target.

Almost half the EU’s electricity is now generated by renewables, with wind and solar power generation capacity additions increasing 58% cumulatively between 2021 and 2024, shaving 38 Bcm of gas demand over three years, according to the commission.

Growing renewable capacity could see gas demand slump by 16 Bcm in 2025, according to commission estimates.

“EU gas demand is expected to decrease, particularly post 2030. However, so will domestic production and pipeline imports, including from Norway and Algeria, providing headroom for LNG imports to increase, at least through to 2035 despite gas demand reducing,” Massimo Di Odoardo, vice president of gas and LNG research at consultancy Wood Mackenzie, tells Energy Intelligence.

“Additionally, the wave of new LNG supply growth that is currently under construction means that more LNG will be available for Europe. We anticipate US LNG imports will account for more than 30% of EU gas demand by 2030,” he adds.