Wednesday, August 6, 2025
The world of travel and tourism is set to undergo profound changes over the next decade, driven by a mix of geopolitical shifts, economic challenges, environmental concerns, and advances in technology. Destinations like Japan, Italy, and Brazil are at the crossroads of these trends, with each facing unique challenges and opportunities as they navigate a rapidly changing global landscape. The future of tourism will not only depend on how these destinations adapt but also on how they engage with larger global dynamics.
As we reflect on the past, the post-pandemic rebound of tourism has been encouraging. However, the landscape of travel is now vastly different than it was pre-2020. According to a World Economic Forum report, global tourism spending is expected to grow by 7% over the next decade, with international tourist arrivals already increasing by 5% in the first quarter of 2025. Yet, travel demand is being shaped by several factors that are impacting destinations around the world, from geopolitical tensions to economic fluctuations, the growing push toward sustainable tourism, and the surge of digital transformation within the industry.
Scenario 1: Fragmentation and Rising Regionalism in Travel – The Impact on Japan, Italy, and Brazil
In a world characterized by growing geopolitical fragmentation, regional travel will rise as countries turn inward and focus on local markets. This scenario, known as the “a thousand islands world,” suggests a future where economic growth stalls, global trade is curtailed, and protectionist policies limit international travel. Countries like Japan and Italy, known for their global tourism appeal, may experience a shift toward regional visitors.
For Japan, the effects of this fragmentation could be significant. Traditionally a global hub for international tourists, Japan may see a decline in foreign arrivals, especially from Western markets. However, Asian travelers, especially from neighboring countries like China, South Korea, and Thailand, could play an increasingly prominent role. Local and regional travel could surge, particularly with easier visa policies for neighboring countries. This would mean a shift from international airports like Tokyo Narita and Osaka Kansai being hubs for global traffic to becoming more focused on Asia-Pacific travel routes.
Similarly, Italy, one of the world’s most beloved tourist destinations, may face challenges in sustaining high tourist numbers, particularly from North America and Latin America, if global restrictions and trade barriers persist. Destinations like Rome, Venice, and Florence might turn towards European tourism for the bulk of their visitors, while promoting domestic travel to offset declines. Regional partnerships between European countries might encourage more visitors within the Schengen Area, making train travel a dominant mode of transportation across Italy and neighboring countries like France and Germany.
Brazil, known for its vibrant cultural festivals and natural wonders, may experience similar shifts. With South American countries like Argentina, Chile, and Peru leading the charge in intra-regional tourism, Brazil’s iconic destinations like Rio de Janeiro and the Amazon Rainforest might attract a higher number of regional travelers as international travel slows down. However, economic constraints and political instability in Latin America could also pose challenges, meaning Brazil’s tourism industry may focus on a more localized experience.
Scenario 2: A Surge in Global Cooperation and Liberalization – A Growth Opportunity for Japan, Italy, and Brazil
On the other hand, if global tensions ease and multilateral cooperation strengthens, travel to Japan, Italy, and Brazil could surge. This scenario, called “harmonious horizons,” envisions a world of increased economic integration, where visa liberalization and higher disposable incomes drive growth in international tourism. Countries in Asia and the Global South are expected to lead this growth, which would benefit destinations like Japan and Brazil.
For Japan, stronger visa policies and regional economic partnerships could spark a boom in tourism from emerging economies in India, Indonesia, and Vietnam, while luxury tourism remains strong among high-spending travelers from Europe and North America. Japan’s rich cultural heritage, advanced technology, and well-established tourism infrastructure position it well to capitalize on this surge, particularly with initiatives like Tokyo 2025 Expo and 2027 Rugby World Cup boosting its international profile.
In Italy, the resurgence of global tourism could present significant opportunities for the Italian tourism sector, which has long been a major player in Europe’s travel industry. A more liberalized visa system could make it easier for tourists from India and Brazil to visit cities like Rome and the Amalfi Coast, while Italy’s fashion, gastronomy, and art would continue to attract tourists seeking cultural experiences. The rise of digital nomads could also fuel demand for long-term stays in cities like Milan and Florence, offering a new avenue for growth.
For Brazil, the increased disposable incomes in emerging markets such as Nigeria, Mexico, and South Africa will likely see a rise in travelers heading to Brazil’s beaches, Amazon Rainforest, and Pantanal wetlands. The World Cup 2026 and Olympics 2030 provide a further boost to Brazil’s global tourism efforts, encouraging a broader range of travelers from across the world to experience the country’s rich natural and cultural heritage.
Scenario 3: Green and Sustainable Tourism – Brazil, Italy, and Japan Embrace New Trends
In the context of global environmental consciousness, a shift toward sustainable tourism could transform how countries like Japan, Italy, and Brazil attract travelers. The green ascent scenario focuses on reducing tourism’s carbon footprint, with an emphasis on low-impact travel modes like high-speed rail and eco-friendly hotels.
Japan has long been a leader in environmental technology, and the country is increasingly aligning its tourism offerings with green values. The nation’s eco-tourism initiatives in Hokkaido and the Japanese Alps, as well as the Tokyo Green Plan 2050, could position it as a leader in sustainable travel. With more travelers seeking destinations with a low environmental impact, Japan is well-placed to capitalize on these trends, offering eco-certified hotels and regenerative tourism experiences that attract eco-conscious travelers.
Italy also faces increasing demand for sustainable travel experiences. From the Tuscany hills to the Cinque Terre, travelers are increasingly seeking low-impact, high-value experiences. The rise of sustainable vineyards and eco-resorts in regions like Sicily and the Alps could further enhance Italy’s appeal. However, with overtourism still a significant challenge, Italy will need to adopt strategies like dynamic pricing and tourism caps to prevent damage to its historic sites.
In Brazil, the Amazon Rainforest and Pantanal wetlands are both attractive eco-tourism destinations and vital ecosystems. The green ascent scenario could see Brazil further developing eco-tourism initiatives that preserve natural habitats while offering travelers a chance to experience the country’s biodiversity in a sustainable way. However, Brazil must balance the growth of its eco-tourism sector with the ongoing challenges of deforestation, ensuring that its tourism industry remains both profitable and environmentally responsible.
Scenario 4: The Role of Technology in Shaping the Future of Travel – Japan, Italy, and Brazil’s Digital Transformation
In a tech-driven future, the travel industry will become increasingly digitized. Virtual tourism and augmented reality (AR) are expected to grow, and Japan, Italy, and Brazil are well-positioned to embrace these technologies.
Japan is already a global leader in technology, and the integration of AR tourism apps and virtual experiences could allow tourists to explore Kyoto or Mt. Fuji without leaving their homes. These innovations could help preserve fragile ecosystems while expanding tourism’s reach.
Italy is embracing digital transformation as well, with Rome and Milan offering virtual tours of ancient monuments and interactive museum experiences. These technologies allow travelers to connect with Italy’s rich cultural heritage without contributing to overtourism.
Meanwhile, Brazil can use technology to showcase its natural wonders through virtual experiences of the Amazon or Pantanal to attract environmentally-conscious tourists and educate travelers about conservation efforts.
Conclusion: Navigating the Future of Tourism
The future of travel and tourism is increasingly defined by how destinations adapt to geopolitical, environmental, and technological shifts. Countries like Japan, Italy, and Brazil will need to find innovative ways to balance growth with sustainability, regional trends, and digital transformation to stay competitive in the global tourism market.
As we approach 2030, the tourism industry will likely see profound changes, and the success of countries in adapting to these shifts will determine their future role in the global travel ecosystem.
