The bear hugs are gone. The smiles have curled into sneers. The easy badinage about the world’s largest and oldest democracies coming together in a warm embrace has given way to threats.
On Wednesday, President Trump increased US tariffs on India to 50 per cent, the highest of any country in the world. He hopes to throttle sales of Russian oil in an attempt to force President Putin to agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine.
Last week, Trump imposed an initial 25 per cent tariff on India, threatening an additional “penalty” if it continued to buy Russian oil. India faces the most punitive levies of any country in the world alongside Brazil, another country allied with the Kremlin.
It came after the president wrote on Truth Social on Monday that “they [India] don’t care how many people in Ukraine are being killed by the Russian war machine”.
“India is not only buying massive amounts of Russian oil, they are then, for much of the oil purchased, selling it on the open market for big profits,” he wrote. Last week Trump announced an imposition of a 25 per cent tariff on Indian imports to the US along with an unspecified “penalty” for purchasing Russian oil.
This turning of the screw on India to stop it from buying Russian oil as part of Trump’s frustrated efforts to achieve a deal in Ukraine has caught his counterpart Narendra Modi, the prime minister, by surprise.
Students in India create posters responding to Trump’s tariffs announcement
ASHISH VAISHNAV/SOPA IMAGES/SHUTTERSTOCK
It was not long ago that the US vice-president JD Vance and his family were embraced by Modi at his official residence in Delhi. During the visit in April the pair talked of their significant progress toward a bilateral trade deal. It came months after Trump had described Modi as a “true friend” on his own visit to India.
But Modi is now in a bind. Russia’s oil is the cheapest crude available and Russia is a very old and trusted ally which has stood by India for decades. Perhaps more importantly, though, while Modi has invested a lot of personal goodwill in trying to elevate Indo-US relations, he cannot be seen to allow Trump to decide the country’s national interest.
The retired foreign secretary, Shyam Saran, writing in The Indian Express, summarised the mood of India’s hawkish commentators: “India cannot give any country a veto over which country India should or should not partner with.”
Trump’s change in tone has therefore unsettled Delhi. Sanjay Jha, the former spokesman of the opposition Congress Party, said Modi’s assumptions about his relationship with Trump had proved to be a “miscalculation” now that he was being “bullied and boxed in”.
“When Trump was campaigning for a second term, Modi broke all diplomatic protocols by promoting Trump among the Indian diaspora in America,” Jha told The Times. “It was unprecedented what he did but he thought India would benefit. Now Trump has pulled the rug from under his feet.”
The once strong friendship between Modi and Trump has soured …
MANDEL NGAN/AFP
… and it is likely Modi will remain loyal to Russia over oil purchases
ALEXANDER ZEMLIANICHENKO/AP
From being a “total killer” and “strategic partner”, India has become one of the biggest victims of Trump’s tariffs. China was hit with 30 per cent, the Philippines and Indonesia got 19 per cent, Bangladesh 18 per cent, Vietnam 20 per cent and Japan 15 per cent.
The US is India’s largest market for goods and services. If exports fell by 30 per cent it would reduce India’s GDP growth rate by 2 per cent.
On Tuesday, after days of prodding, the Ministry of External Affairs finally retaliated in a statement that called Trump’s targeting of India “unjustified and unreasonable”.
It pointed out that the EU’s trade with Russia last year far exceeded India’s. “Where the United States is concerned, it continues to import from Russia uranium hexafluoride for its nuclear industry, palladium for its EV industry, fertilisers as well as chemicals,” the statement said.
While some believe Trump’s turn has compromised Modi’s domestic standing, others spy an opportunity. Harsh V Pant, head of the strategic studies programme at the think tank Observer Research Foundation, said: “The more Trump rants against him, the more the Indian public will rally around him. And Modi is very pragmatic. He understands the need to engage the US. He won’t let this affect him personally. But it does change the complexion of the Indo-US relationship.”
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Modi is unlikely to stop buying Russian oil to placate Trump. Renouncing India’s historical ties with Russia which date back to the Cold War is not on the cards.
Some pundits in the “appeasement lobby” in Delhi believe that Modi should stroke Trump’s ego and bend. Plenty of other countries, they say, are rushing to make deals and ties with the US are simply too important to jeopardise.
But the weekend papers were full of analysts arguing for India to stand up to Modi. Pratap Bhanu Mehta, a columnist, called Trump’s policies “imperialist”.
He wrote: “Capitulating to this emerging American imperial state … is an affront to both India’s dignity and its interests.”
Modi himself hinted over the weekend that India would have to tolerate the pain of high tariffs. He urged Indians to buy local goods and called for the strengthening of local manufacturing. “Now, whatever we buy, there should be only one scale. We will buy those things which have been made by the sweat of an Indian,” he said in a speech at this constituency of Varanasi.
Top aides for Modi are due to travel to Russia in the coming days, according to Bloomberg. His national security adviser is expected to visit the country this week and his external affairs minister is to take the trip later in the month.
The trepidation now in Delhi is how Trump will react to these defiant signals and how much worse is still to come.
On Monday, when he accused India of selling Russian oil for profit, Trump added ominously: “Because of this, I will be substantially raising the Tariff paid by India to the USA.”
By how much, Indians are wondering? And what will be the precise penalty he imposed last week for buying Russian oil which has yet to be specified?
Trump said he would make a “determination” after his envoy Steve Witkoff visits Moscow on Wednesday. “We have a meeting with Russia… We’re going to see what happens,” he told reporters.
As Delhi mulled over these unknowns, the Kremlin weighed into the dispute. “Sovereign countries have the right to choose their own trading partners,” the Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters. Attempts to force countries to sever trading relations with Russia were, he said, “illegitimate”.
Perhaps the best summary of the situation, however, came from the vice-president of Modi’s BJP party Baijayant Jay Panda, quoting Henry Kissinger in a post on X, saying: “To be an enemy of America can be dangerous, but to be a friend is fatal.”