Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit

New analysis from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) has found UK imports are under threat with £3 billion worth of food imported from the 20 countries with the highest numbers of internally displaced people from disasters such as flooding [1]. All of these countries are deemed unprepared for climate change by experts [2].

Pakistan is the second biggest supplier of rice to the UK with over £120m of rice imported from the country last year, and rice is bought by 88% of British households shows the report, Climate change impacts on food and migration.

In August 2022 Pakistan saw three times its usual rainfall with scientists concluding it ‘likely’ that climate change had played a role in driving these extreme monsoon rains. [3] Resulting floods killed 1,700 people, displacing millions and causing billions of dollars of damage; crops were harmed and up to nine million Pakistanis slid into poverty, mostly from rural farming communities. In 2023 the country had the second highest number of people internally displaced by disaster anywhere in the world, at 1.2 million. [4]

This year, after warnings of heavier than usual monsoon rains, flooding caused by torrential downpours has already claimed the lives of around 300 people – with further alerts in northern regions of more heavy rains and flash flooding to come. [5]

World Weather Attribution analysis of flooding in northern Pakistan has shown that the monsoon rainfall – normally expected every five years – was made 15% more intense this year by climate change. What is more, rapid rural to urban migration in the country has increased the number of informal settlements in flood-prone areas, which put even more people in harm’s way. [6]

From 2022 to 2023, the average price the UK paid per kilo for Pakistani rice rose by a third (33%), the report shows, meaning we paid more for less rice as yields were hit by the floods and resulting internal displacements.

Commenting Gareth Redmond-King, Head of International Programme at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) said: “UK farmers are being hit by extremes of wet and dry, threatening livelihoods, yields and our food security. But when floods and droughts force farmers overseas to leave their homes, they often head to the cities which not only breaks apart communities but raises questions about a growing threat of who is going to farm the food we have to import like rice.

“We saw during the recent floods in Pakistan how farmers fled the land. The price of rice shot up.

“If we are to continue to import the foods from abroad we can’t grow here, the UK is increasingly going to have to support these farmers through climate finance. Ultimately, unless we reach net zero emissions we don’t stop climate change, and these threats to our food security will continue to worsen.”

Commenting on the future of UK climate finance, Camilla Toulmin, Senior Associate at the International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED) said: “Recent aid cuts risk the UK going from being a climate-finance champion to retreating from its international responsibilities – eroding its friendships and soft-power across the world. Ostensibly to shore up our nation’s security by boosting military spending, reductions in ODA mean cuts to investment in building a fairer more stable and resilient world. Our security as a nation cannot rely on guns, bombs and boots on the ground. With global climate changes bringing more intense rainfall and volatile food systems, our own food security is increasingly at risk.”

The UK provides support to Pakistan through climate finance – directly, and via global multi-lateral funds. The Acumen Climate Action Pakistan Fund, administered through the Green Climate Fund, is one such example, supporting Pakistan’s farmers growing rise, as well as other key export commodities like wheat, sugarcane and cotton. It is focused on securing climate adaptation finance to provide long-term debt or equity investment to help build capacity amongst Pakistan’s vulnerable farmers, developing greater resilience to climate change impacts.

Over a two-year period the impacts of climate change added an average £361 to every UK household’s food bills [7]. With 40% of the food we eat in the UK imported – around half of which is made up of crops we do not grow here – climate impacts on food imports also threatens food security. British food security is being threatened at home from extreme wet and dry weather, with England having seen its second worst harvest on record last year [8].

By the end of 2024, of 83 million people who were internally displaced in their own countries worldwide, nearly 10 million were displaced by disasters – up 29% on the number the previous year [9]. People being forced to leave their homes in rural areas often move to towns and cities.

Climate change threatens not just crops, but also the people growing them, with climate-fuelled disasters increasingly forcing people to move particularly from rural, agricultural areas, which can compound the threat already posed by climate impacts to food security

In 2024, 15% of the UK’s food imports – 6 billion kilograms worth £8 billion – came directly from nations with low ‘climate readiness’, those that are highly exposed to climate impacts but are also underprepared, the report shows. These are crops we cannot grow at commercial scale here because they are not suited to our climate and soils. Without farmers growing these crops overseas, often in highly vulnerable developing countries, UK consumers would not have access to them.

UK climate finance is an investment in preserving farmers’ livelihoods in countries like Pakistan, reducing the likelihood that they will be forced to leave their homes to seek work elsewhere, as well as making food production more resilient to climate change, overall adding up to an investment in our food security. ECIU analysis [10] has shown that UK climate finance has contributed to at least 348 projects supporting overseas farmers hit by climate change in 111 countries, 84 of which (76%) grow food sold on UK supermarket shelves.

The lead author on a new study looking at how donor countries benefit from foreign aid [11], Professor Tobias Heidland, Research Director International Development at the Kiel Institute said: “As climate shocks hit harvests and force people to move, well-designed aid and climate finance that strengthens the resilience of livelihoods is an insurance policy. Smart financial support that helps people adapt and stay secure will be far cheaper than cleaning up after crises hit. Climate adaptation strategies should not merely preserve the status quo but support countries in making their citizens more productive.”

Globally, 123m people – equivalent to one in every 67 people on the planet – were forcibly displaced by disaster, conflict and violence last year. Over two thirds (68%) of those people were internally displaced, within their own country, with nearly 70% of internal displacements caused by disasters. 97% of disaster-related internal displacements were caused by storms and floods. An increase in the frequency and severity of storms and floods is what is expected under human-induced climate change.