When first heard of this new attempt to wreck the Irish Protocol when Rees-mogg mentioned it the other day, it was easy to dismiss as just more empty threats to sate the Brexiteers before the May locals. But they are this stupid in government..
>Now the *Financial Times* [reports](https://archive.ph/v28ut)
that Mr Johnson and foreign secretary Liz Truss have in principle signed off plans to bring forward a Northern Ireland Bill early in the next parliamentary session, which begins next month.
>
>That bill would give ministers the power to deactivate parts of the protocol in British law, including border checks across the Irish Sea.
>
>A UK government spokesperson said that no decisions had yet been taken and that “our overriding priority continues to be the protection of peace and stability in Northern Ireland”.
>
But asked about the plan on LBC radio on Friday morning Northern Ireland minister Conor Burns said: “We don’t talk about what’s in the Queen’s speech before the Queen’s speech has been delivered, that would be grossly inappropriate.
>
>”What I would say is we have been clear as far back as last July, the prime minister said, that we believe that threshold for trial for triggering Article 16 of the Northern Ireland protocol had been reached.
>
>”There is significant societal disruption in Northern Ireland due to the way the protocol is being implemented. There is a sense that people in Northern Ireland are a people set apart.”
>
>He added that the agreement “is not working as it was intended to work” and that “it is absolutely right that if the European Commission will not move will not look at practical solutions to make the protocol less invasive, less bureaucratic then the United Kingdom [will]”.
>
>Mr Burn added: “We have been very clear with the Commission that ultimately if there isn’t movement, if there isn’t a political willingness to engage in changing the protocol to make its implementation and application work more effectively, then the United Kingdom retains the right – as by the way laid down under Article 16, which says the application has protocol leads to serious economic, societal or environmental difficulties that are likely to persist or diversions of trade, the Union or the UK may take unilateral and appropriate safeguarding measures – that may be what we have to do.”
>
>[🪞 👈](https://archive.ph/CJCkU) *mirror*
–
> After prolonged absence from the news agenda in Westminster, UK-EU relations will soon make a major comeback – as the prime minister seeks to move on from the Partygate scandal and energise his base.
So, essentially, he is going to endanger the UK’s economy, it’s reputation, it’s relationship with *all* its neighbours and the Northern Irish peace process for temporary party political gains? Not exactly inconsistent with their past antics, but hardly responsible or even rational behaviour.
> “There a lot of commentary that says: ‘Well, we signed it and therefore surely we should accept it lock, stock and barrel.’ That’s absolute nonsense.”
Mr. Rees-Mogg comes across here as both as incredibly arrogant and utterly uninformed. In reality, he knows full well that this is exactly how an international treaty (and indeed any basic contract) works. He just thinks his voters don’t. There are two legal options: you either uphold your obligations or you withdraw from the treaty. Of course, if the UK does the latter there will be a border around Northern Ireland and a severe, potentially violent, political meltdown there and an immediate economic crisis as the EU suspends the Withdrawal Agreement and withdraws from the TCA. So what he proposes is the third option: break the treaty, expecting the other side to uphold its obligations while refusing to uphold yours. Guess how that will end.
> That bill would give ministers the power to deactivate parts of the protocol in British law, including border checks across the Irish Sea.
Again, neither the EU or any dispute resolution tribunal will care about what UK law says. Domestic laws are never an excuse to not uphold your end of an international treaty. The EU will simply set up trade sanctions on UK exports, slowly ramping up the pressure until the UK gives in. The UK will be unable to respond in turn because A) that would count as another breach of the treaty and lead to more sanctions and B) it can not even afford to do proper checks now, so how would it be able to deal with even more disruption? It is a fight that the UK can not win and indeed would never have started if its public policy was in any way determined based on its actual material interests rather than on the immediate interests of its political leadership.
> Mr Burn added: “We have been very clear with the Commission that ultimately if there isn’t movement, if there isn’t a political willingness to engage in changing the protocol to make its implementation and application work more effectively, then the United Kingdom retains the right – as by the way laid down under Article 16, which says the application has protocol leads to serious economic, societal or environmental difficulties that are likely to persist or diversions of trade, the Union or the UK may take unilateral and appropriate safeguarding measures – that may be what we have to do.”
Then why don’t they? Why didn’t they do it before? Nothing has changed. There is no willingness to move on the basic function of the agreement. The EU has been clear and consistent on this. The reason is simple: Article 16 does not do what the UK government pretends it does. It can not be used to permanently change the protocol. It also opens the UK up to immediate retaliation by the EU without a preliminary legal procedure. From a purely tactical perspective it makes no sense to trigger Article 16 to achieve what they claim they want, because *simply breaking the treaty* will give the UK somewhat more time before the inevitable consequences arrive. “Article 16” seems to have become nothing more than a buzz word, a slogan to their own voters. Try invoking it in real life and see what happens.
In short: this will simply tell the UK’s neighbours that the UK government is fundamentally dishonest, dishonourable and untrustworthy. If they actually move on this, it will trigger an escalation that will cost the UK dearly. if it is just election propaganda and nothing happens, it will just make the UK government look foolish, irresponsible and weak. Either way, it will seriously damage the UK’s diplomatic position. Regardless of the legal niceties, the balance of power has not changed. If the UK rejects the rules based framework, it will find that its replacement by one based on power and pressure will leave it at an even greater disadvantage.
Bonfire of the vanities, the Tories really are prepared to fan the flames of sectarianism to keep themselves in power aren’t they?
Seeing how easily the British public have swallowed the nonsense of Johnson personally leading the defence of Kyiv, is it any wonder they are desperate for a conflict closer to home so they can wave their flags vigorously.
Ah yes. The perfect distraction from domestic troubles – a fight with a foreign power. Fingers and toes crossed that it works, because the next stage up is to declare war on Russia. 😩
The important reads here:
From the FT:
>FT: [*UK prepared to ‘unilaterally’ tear up Northern Ireland post-Brexit trade deal*](https://www.ft.com/content/327c4909-fa63-44c8-9c74-206eebe5849e)
>
>Jacob Rees-Mogg, the Brexit opportunities minister, told a committee of MPs that if the EU did not reform the so-called Northern Ireland Protocol then the UK government was within its rights to take unilateral action
>
>[🪞 👈](https://archive.ph/uIX9U) *mirror*
–
and:
>FT: [*UK prepares law to give ministers power to tear up N Ireland trade deal*](https://www.ft.com/content/58a94b1d-d1f5-4e97-9c51-a83b5bd2b050)
>
>Whitehall insiders said the Johnson administration was developing the plans partly in anticipation of a new constitutional crisis if the mainly protestant Unionist parties — all of which have rejected the so-called Northern Ireland Protocol — refuse to re-enter the region’s power-sharing executive after the May 5 Northern Ireland Assembly elections
>
>[🪞 👈](https://archive.ph/v28ut)
–
and fresh from RTÉ
>RTÉ: [*UK government plans legislation to scrap parts of NI Protocol – report*](https://www.rte.ie/news/world/2022/0422/1293621-northern-ireland-protocol-goodwill/)
>
>RTÉ News understands that British government lawyers have drafted legislation that would repeal a key provision of the EU Withdrawal Act, which enshrines the Brexit withdrawal treaty, including the Northern Ireland Protocol, in UK law
They’re not stupid, yet I’m struggling to see a better explanation for this.
If the UK unilaterally reneges on the WA and FTA – which is what this is – then the EU will impose painful tariffs on the UK. The Tories will try to blame the EU for being mean, but there aren’t enough trolls in the whole of Russia to make that blame stick. Energy, food, exports – we are reliant on the EU and its members for an awful lot.
So do they think they can swing it that the EU gets the blame? Or is this just a mechanism to make the next election as much as possible about Brexit?
Christ, is this how local and national elections are going to be fought now? Flogging the bloody moldering mush of the Brexit horse so rage up the Brexit faithful?
The irony is that the Tories say we need Johnson to keep the UK strong in light of what is happening in Ukraine. And yet here we see Johnson is willing to remove all trade agreements between the UK the EU. This is catastrophic to the businesses in the UK who trade with the EU on a scale like nothing we have seen to date.
Idiot BritGov in a lose/lose situation of their own arrogant making.
pick a _losing_ fight with the EU
*fixed that for ya!
As someone in Northern Ireland manufacturing, please god no!
Its nice that NI has a leg up for a change.
Also the NIP is easily supported by the majority here, let the coming local elections speak for themselves before taking this unilateral decision from Westminster. God forbid we actually try some democracy for a change.
How about he gives the Queen and the 4 nations the best Birthday present and resigns?
Then we can all have a good drink to celebrate the Queens birthday knowing full well there isn’t a corrupt, incompetent, criminal, lying, gaslighting, immoral, racist, cocaine taking, tax avoiding, tax dodging, psychopathic, flag humping, traitor in Number 10 anymore 🥰
The celebrations would be heard across the world it would be awesome!
Using the EU is bad stick, to get some support from his back benchers, its simple really, he would go to war with russia if it saved his skin, its that simple, and kept him in number 10, we are witnessing a prime minister who will do whatever it takes not to resign from his position, there is no line with this man, that he will not cross.
There is a reason for this the UK cannot impliment import checks without further crushing the economy so it can’t win any trade war with the EU.
He’s intentionally doing this so when import checks are implimented and our economy shrinks a further 10% and we have a famine in the UK Johnson will pretend that it was the EU’s fault.
But, but, he got brexit done didn’t he? Are we going to be brexiting forever?
If the negotiations process had you believing the Tories cared about Northern Ireland, I have a bridge to sell you. Northern Ireland is just a pawn for them in their arguments with the EU. They will sail Northern Ireland up the river if it suits them and will happily abandon peace for political point-scoring with their voter base (many of whom will be ignorant about Northern Ireland to begin with).
It’s just propaganda for internal use.
And in case they are really that stupid, the EU will act to safeguard the interests of its citizens and peace in Northern Ireland.
With soft power and without antics.
17 comments
When first heard of this new attempt to wreck the Irish Protocol when Rees-mogg mentioned it the other day, it was easy to dismiss as just more empty threats to sate the Brexiteers before the May locals. But they are this stupid in government..
>Now the *Financial Times* [reports](https://archive.ph/v28ut)
that Mr Johnson and foreign secretary Liz Truss have in principle signed off plans to bring forward a Northern Ireland Bill early in the next parliamentary session, which begins next month.
>
>That bill would give ministers the power to deactivate parts of the protocol in British law, including border checks across the Irish Sea.
>
>A UK government spokesperson said that no decisions had yet been taken and that “our overriding priority continues to be the protection of peace and stability in Northern Ireland”.
>
But asked about the plan on LBC radio on Friday morning Northern Ireland minister Conor Burns said: “We don’t talk about what’s in the Queen’s speech before the Queen’s speech has been delivered, that would be grossly inappropriate.
>
>”What I would say is we have been clear as far back as last July, the prime minister said, that we believe that threshold for trial for triggering Article 16 of the Northern Ireland protocol had been reached.
>
>”There is significant societal disruption in Northern Ireland due to the way the protocol is being implemented. There is a sense that people in Northern Ireland are a people set apart.”
>
>He added that the agreement “is not working as it was intended to work” and that “it is absolutely right that if the European Commission will not move will not look at practical solutions to make the protocol less invasive, less bureaucratic then the United Kingdom [will]”.
>
>Mr Burn added: “We have been very clear with the Commission that ultimately if there isn’t movement, if there isn’t a political willingness to engage in changing the protocol to make its implementation and application work more effectively, then the United Kingdom retains the right – as by the way laid down under Article 16, which says the application has protocol leads to serious economic, societal or environmental difficulties that are likely to persist or diversions of trade, the Union or the UK may take unilateral and appropriate safeguarding measures – that may be what we have to do.”
>
>[🪞 👈](https://archive.ph/CJCkU) *mirror*
–
> After prolonged absence from the news agenda in Westminster, UK-EU relations will soon make a major comeback – as the prime minister seeks to move on from the Partygate scandal and energise his base.
So, essentially, he is going to endanger the UK’s economy, it’s reputation, it’s relationship with *all* its neighbours and the Northern Irish peace process for temporary party political gains? Not exactly inconsistent with their past antics, but hardly responsible or even rational behaviour.
> “There a lot of commentary that says: ‘Well, we signed it and therefore surely we should accept it lock, stock and barrel.’ That’s absolute nonsense.”
Mr. Rees-Mogg comes across here as both as incredibly arrogant and utterly uninformed. In reality, he knows full well that this is exactly how an international treaty (and indeed any basic contract) works. He just thinks his voters don’t. There are two legal options: you either uphold your obligations or you withdraw from the treaty. Of course, if the UK does the latter there will be a border around Northern Ireland and a severe, potentially violent, political meltdown there and an immediate economic crisis as the EU suspends the Withdrawal Agreement and withdraws from the TCA. So what he proposes is the third option: break the treaty, expecting the other side to uphold its obligations while refusing to uphold yours. Guess how that will end.
> That bill would give ministers the power to deactivate parts of the protocol in British law, including border checks across the Irish Sea.
Again, neither the EU or any dispute resolution tribunal will care about what UK law says. Domestic laws are never an excuse to not uphold your end of an international treaty. The EU will simply set up trade sanctions on UK exports, slowly ramping up the pressure until the UK gives in. The UK will be unable to respond in turn because A) that would count as another breach of the treaty and lead to more sanctions and B) it can not even afford to do proper checks now, so how would it be able to deal with even more disruption? It is a fight that the UK can not win and indeed would never have started if its public policy was in any way determined based on its actual material interests rather than on the immediate interests of its political leadership.
> Mr Burn added: “We have been very clear with the Commission that ultimately if there isn’t movement, if there isn’t a political willingness to engage in changing the protocol to make its implementation and application work more effectively, then the United Kingdom retains the right – as by the way laid down under Article 16, which says the application has protocol leads to serious economic, societal or environmental difficulties that are likely to persist or diversions of trade, the Union or the UK may take unilateral and appropriate safeguarding measures – that may be what we have to do.”
Then why don’t they? Why didn’t they do it before? Nothing has changed. There is no willingness to move on the basic function of the agreement. The EU has been clear and consistent on this. The reason is simple: Article 16 does not do what the UK government pretends it does. It can not be used to permanently change the protocol. It also opens the UK up to immediate retaliation by the EU without a preliminary legal procedure. From a purely tactical perspective it makes no sense to trigger Article 16 to achieve what they claim they want, because *simply breaking the treaty* will give the UK somewhat more time before the inevitable consequences arrive. “Article 16” seems to have become nothing more than a buzz word, a slogan to their own voters. Try invoking it in real life and see what happens.
In short: this will simply tell the UK’s neighbours that the UK government is fundamentally dishonest, dishonourable and untrustworthy. If they actually move on this, it will trigger an escalation that will cost the UK dearly. if it is just election propaganda and nothing happens, it will just make the UK government look foolish, irresponsible and weak. Either way, it will seriously damage the UK’s diplomatic position. Regardless of the legal niceties, the balance of power has not changed. If the UK rejects the rules based framework, it will find that its replacement by one based on power and pressure will leave it at an even greater disadvantage.
Bonfire of the vanities, the Tories really are prepared to fan the flames of sectarianism to keep themselves in power aren’t they?
Seeing how easily the British public have swallowed the nonsense of Johnson personally leading the defence of Kyiv, is it any wonder they are desperate for a conflict closer to home so they can wave their flags vigorously.
Ah yes. The perfect distraction from domestic troubles – a fight with a foreign power. Fingers and toes crossed that it works, because the next stage up is to declare war on Russia. 😩
The important reads here:
From the FT:
>FT: [*UK prepared to ‘unilaterally’ tear up Northern Ireland post-Brexit trade deal*](https://www.ft.com/content/327c4909-fa63-44c8-9c74-206eebe5849e)
>
>Jacob Rees-Mogg, the Brexit opportunities minister, told a committee of MPs that if the EU did not reform the so-called Northern Ireland Protocol then the UK government was within its rights to take unilateral action
>
>[🪞 👈](https://archive.ph/uIX9U) *mirror*
–
and:
>FT: [*UK prepares law to give ministers power to tear up N Ireland trade deal*](https://www.ft.com/content/58a94b1d-d1f5-4e97-9c51-a83b5bd2b050)
>
>Whitehall insiders said the Johnson administration was developing the plans partly in anticipation of a new constitutional crisis if the mainly protestant Unionist parties — all of which have rejected the so-called Northern Ireland Protocol — refuse to re-enter the region’s power-sharing executive after the May 5 Northern Ireland Assembly elections
>
>[🪞 👈](https://archive.ph/v28ut)
–
and fresh from RTÉ
>RTÉ: [*UK government plans legislation to scrap parts of NI Protocol – report*](https://www.rte.ie/news/world/2022/0422/1293621-northern-ireland-protocol-goodwill/)
>
>RTÉ News understands that British government lawyers have drafted legislation that would repeal a key provision of the EU Withdrawal Act, which enshrines the Brexit withdrawal treaty, including the Northern Ireland Protocol, in UK law
They’re not stupid, yet I’m struggling to see a better explanation for this.
If the UK unilaterally reneges on the WA and FTA – which is what this is – then the EU will impose painful tariffs on the UK. The Tories will try to blame the EU for being mean, but there aren’t enough trolls in the whole of Russia to make that blame stick. Energy, food, exports – we are reliant on the EU and its members for an awful lot.
So do they think they can swing it that the EU gets the blame? Or is this just a mechanism to make the next election as much as possible about Brexit?
Christ, is this how local and national elections are going to be fought now? Flogging the bloody moldering mush of the Brexit horse so rage up the Brexit faithful?
This is to appease the [ERG](https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/new-mps-flock-to-join-tory-eurosceptic-group-wm05fgh2g) especially after the damning attack from [Steve Baker](https://uk.news.yahoo.com/government-drops-order-tory-mps-112400714.html) this week, who happens to be a prominent member. Johnson made promises to the ERG when they added their vote to the [TCA](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/982648/TS_8.2021_UK_EU_EAEC_Trade_and_Cooperation_Agreement.pdf). He promised to removed the NI protocol, which runs side by side to the TCA.
The irony is that the Tories say we need Johnson to keep the UK strong in light of what is happening in Ukraine. And yet here we see Johnson is willing to remove all trade agreements between the UK the EU. This is catastrophic to the businesses in the UK who trade with the EU on a scale like nothing we have seen to date.
Idiot BritGov in a lose/lose situation of their own arrogant making.
pick a _losing_ fight with the EU
*fixed that for ya!
As someone in Northern Ireland manufacturing, please god no!
Its nice that NI has a leg up for a change.
Also the NIP is easily supported by the majority here, let the coming local elections speak for themselves before taking this unilateral decision from Westminster. God forbid we actually try some democracy for a change.
How about he gives the Queen and the 4 nations the best Birthday present and resigns?
Then we can all have a good drink to celebrate the Queens birthday knowing full well there isn’t a corrupt, incompetent, criminal, lying, gaslighting, immoral, racist, cocaine taking, tax avoiding, tax dodging, psychopathic, flag humping, traitor in Number 10 anymore 🥰
The celebrations would be heard across the world it would be awesome!
Using the EU is bad stick, to get some support from his back benchers, its simple really, he would go to war with russia if it saved his skin, its that simple, and kept him in number 10, we are witnessing a prime minister who will do whatever it takes not to resign from his position, there is no line with this man, that he will not cross.
There is a reason for this the UK cannot impliment import checks without further crushing the economy so it can’t win any trade war with the EU.
He’s intentionally doing this so when import checks are implimented and our economy shrinks a further 10% and we have a famine in the UK Johnson will pretend that it was the EU’s fault.
But, but, he got brexit done didn’t he? Are we going to be brexiting forever?
If the negotiations process had you believing the Tories cared about Northern Ireland, I have a bridge to sell you. Northern Ireland is just a pawn for them in their arguments with the EU. They will sail Northern Ireland up the river if it suits them and will happily abandon peace for political point-scoring with their voter base (many of whom will be ignorant about Northern Ireland to begin with).
It’s just propaganda for internal use.
And in case they are really that stupid, the EU will act to safeguard the interests of its citizens and peace in Northern Ireland.
With soft power and without antics.