The US Will Regret Throwing India Under the Bus

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1. SS: Detailed Summary – Bloomberg Opinion: “The US Will Regret Throwing India Under the Bus” (Andreas Kluth, 8 Aug 2025)

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   Main Argument
   Bloomberg’s Andreas Kluth argues that President Donald Trump’s sudden and hostile shift toward India—culminating in steep tariffs—undermines decades of US diplomatic effort to cultivate New Delhi as a strategic partner against China. This move risks pushing India closer to Russia, and even toward limited engagement with China, reversing years of progress in US–India relations.

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   Background

   Past US–India Courtship
   For over a decade, both Republican and Democratic administrations have sought to bring India into the Western democratic orbit, particularly through the Quad alliance (US, India, Australia, Japan) aimed at counterbalancing China in the Indo-Pacific.

   Trump–Modi Relations
   Earlier in 2025, relations appeared warm—Modi visited Washington in February, echoing Trump’s slogans and talking of a “mega partnership” (MAGA + MIGA).
   India has historically balanced ties with both the West and Russia, while avoiding formal alliances.

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   The Sudden Breakdown

   1. Tariff Escalation

   Initially, Trump imposed a 25% tariff on Indian goods as punishment for India’s continued import of Russian oil.

   Later, he doubled it to 50% (effective later this month).

   Trump taunted that India and Russia could “take their dead economies down together” (despite India’s economic boom).

   Pakistan, in contrast, negotiated a reduction of its US tariffs from 29% to 19%.

   2. Kashmir Crisis Fallout

   A May terrorist attack in Kashmir reignited India–Pakistan tensions.

   Trump publicly claimed he singlehandedly mediated peace—suggesting he even threatened India—contradicting New Delhi’s stance.

   Modi’s government released call transcripts to refute any US mediation, stressing that talks were bilateral.

   Pakistan praised Trump’s role and nominated him for the Nobel Peace Prize, deepening Modi’s sense of humiliation.

   3. Pakistan Factor

   Trump hosted Pakistan’s top general, whom India blames for the attack.

   US–Pakistan relations gained a transactional boost while US–India ties soured.

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   Strategic Implications

   Erosion of Trust
   Modi is now unlikely to trust Trump personally, weakening the rapport once seen as a cornerstone of US–India cooperation.

   Quad Uncertainty
   While the Quad still functions, Trump’s attendance at India’s planned summit this fall is in doubt.

   India’s Diplomatic Pivot
   Modi is preparing his first visit to China in 7 years, signaling a thaw, while also hosting Russia’s president soon.
   India is unlikely to fully embrace Beijing but may diversify partnerships in Asia.

   Perceived Double Standards
   Indians note the US punishes India for Russian oil imports but not China, which imports even more from Russia.
   Concerns also grow over deportations of Indians from the US and harsher treatment of foreign students.

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   Key Expert View

   Lisa Curtis (former NSC official under Trump) calls the policy “mystifying” and “shortsighted,” warning that it undermines a crucial counterweight to China.

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   Bottom Line

   Washington’s abrupt turn from partnership to confrontation with India—whether out of strategic neglect or political whim—threatens to undo years of effort to position New Delhi as a central ally in the Indo-Pacific. If sustained, this could accelerate India’s tilt toward Russia, complicate US efforts to contain China, and diminish American influence in Asia.

2. US didn’t “throw India under the bus”. US itself is the bus here.

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