The US Energy Information Administration (US EIA) has projected that imposition of additional tariffs or “sanctions” may help in cutting down Russian crude oil exports. Russia has been accused of using fossil fuel revenue to fund its war with Ukraine.

“On August 6, (the) US President Donald Trump issued an executive order applying tariffs on India for continued exports of Russia’s oil. Implementation of the additional tariffs or other sanctions may affect export volumes out of Russia,” it has anticipated.

In 2024, the US EIA said that India was the second-largest recipient for crude oil and condensate from Russia and is largely responsible for growth in Asia.

Exports from Russia to India increased from about 50,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2020 to 1.7 million b/d (mb/d) in 2024 and averaged 1.6 mb/d in H1 2025, it pointed out.

On the other hand, exports from Russia to China increased by 500,000 b/d between 2020 and 2024. China remains the largest importer of Russia’s crude oil and condensate, averaging 2.2 mb/d in 2024 and 2 mb/d in H1 2025.

“From 2020 to 2024, crude oil and condensate exports from Russia averaged 5 mb/d. Exports from Russia in H1 2025 were 4.3 mb/d (compared with 4.8 mb/d in 2024),” the US EIA said.

Even as crude oil export volumes from Russia have remained relatively high, the destination of these exports has shifted, mainly due to sanctions related to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Europe received 51 per cent of Russia’s crude oil and condensate exports in 2020. However, this volume fell to 12 per cent in 2024 and 11 per cent in H1 2025. Over half of Russia’s exports to Europe went to Türkiye in 2024 and H1 2025, it added.

“This decline in exports from Russia to Europe was offset by an increase in exports to Asia and Oceania. In 2020, Asia and Oceania received 41 per cent of Russia’s crude oil and condensate exports, with much of the exports going to China by pipeline. In 2024, Asia and Oceania received 81 per cent of Russia’s crude oil and condensate exports, with China and India accounting for the vast majority,” it said.

Published on August 9, 2025