– Russia-Ukraine war’s stalemate and U.S. tariff threats create volatile energy markets, with oil prices fluctuating between $50-$80/barrel based on diplomatic outcomes.
– Russia maintains $235B annual energy revenue via shadow fleets and G7+ loopholes, while OPEC+’s 3-4M bpd spare capacity buffers but amplifies price swings.
– Investors exploit asymmetric opportunities by hedging energy ETFs against peace deals, targeting U.S. shale producers for war escalation, and capitalizing on India-China oil trade shifts.
– Geopolitical arbitrage focuses on U.S. tariff impacts on Indian oil buyers, shadow fleet enforcement gaps, and OPEC+ policy responses to maintain energy market leverage.