Ukraine sends reserves to stop Russian advance in east amid diplomatic push

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1. Excerpt from the post:

   Ukraine’s military has sent reserves to stem Russian advances near two key cities in the eastern Donetsk region, as Moscow attempts to gain more territory before a meeting between its leader, Vladimir Putin and United States President Donald Trump in Alaska on Friday, where land swap issues to end the war will be focal.

   The Ukrainian General Staff said on Tuesday that its forces were involved in “difficult” fighting close to Pokrovsk and Dobropillia, with the extra soldiers needed to block attacks by small groups of Russian troops.

   The development suggests intensifying struggles in the eastern Donetsk area, where Moscow-backed separatists have mainly held sway since the conflict there erupted there 2014, instigated by the Kremlin and deepened by Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

   Some of the advancing clusters of Russian soldiers had been destroyed, while others were still being engaged in combat, it added.

   Russia’s advance is one of the most dramatic in the past year, with its soldiers infiltrating 17km (10 miles) past Ukrainian lines over the last three days, according to Pasi Paroinen, a military analyst with the Finland-based Black Bird Group.

   Moscow, which has further isolated the destroyed town of Kostiantynivka, one of the last remaining urban areas Ukraine holds in the Donetsk, hopes to encircle the nearby city of Pokrovsk.

   “A lot will depend on availability, quantity and quality of Ukrainian reserves,” Paroinen wrote on X Monday.

   Ukraine’s DeepState blog, which has close connections to the Ukrainian military, described the situation as “quite chaotic”, as Russian troops are “infiltrating deeper, trying to quickly consolidate and accumulate forces for further advancement”.

   The Institute for the Study of War, a US-based research group, said Moscow’s advances in the Dobropillia area did not yet amount to “an operational-level breakthrough”.

2. Russia expanded the frontlines around Pokrovsk, nearly encircling it. The Ukrainians, with their already dire manpower situation, simply cannot cover their lines anymore. The Russians are using every advantage an attritional war like this grants them. It is ugly, but it works for them.

3. This is extremely dire. This is one of the biggest breakthroughs in years, and it had resulted in two encirclements. Anyone downplaying this is engaged in wishful thinking. This is a very concerning push, and if the breakthrough is widened it could be devastating.

4. The Surovikin line effectively stopped both sides from crossing that part of the front in the South. The most important part is the 500 m deep minefield, which is effectively impassable.

   Considering that Ukraine has been slowly withdrawing in Donbass, why hasn’t Ukraine constructed its own equivalent of the Surovikin line there? Russian progress is very slow, so there should be plenty of time to build a massive minefield several kilometers behind the front. Leave a small corridor for the defenders to withdraw through, fill it after they are through, and the mines should stop the attackers when they in turn reach the minefield.

   What am I missing here? Why doesn’t Ukraine seem to construct effective defensive lines, but instead constantly fights battles at close quarters, losing lots of men and still gradually withdrawing?

5. I think this is unfortunately a very bad sign for Ukraine. While there was cause for hope in the last few weeks that the ground being gained by Russia was the result of an asymmetrical commitment of resources, this new push is directly the result of infiltration tactics that Russia has been innovating on in the last couple of weeks. These tactics by their nature are only possible when Ukraines lines are stretched to the point of being porous. While Russia can’t sneak through anything larger than a platoon without being spotted, these smaller groups are causing extreme tactical issues where they manage to break through.

   Ukraine has previously said that they have a mobile force that they are using to counter these threats, and perhaps they will be able to push them back in the coming days, however the grander issue of a lack of manpower on the front line remains. If that chronic issue cannot be ameliorated, Russia is going to continue using these tactics until they do achieve a permanent breakthrough. There really is no other solution for Ukraine other than more man power on the front. The area is already saturated with drones, and more munitions won’t really help unless you have guys on the ground who can direct fire on targets they can see. Right now it looks like Ukraine is stretched to the breaking point

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