Secondly, the normalisation between Yerevan and Baku creates more political space for normalisation between Türkiye and Armenia.
Türkiye and Armenia have had a difficult relationship over the past few decades. Although Türkiye was one of the first countries to recognise Armenia’s independence after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, relations quickly soured following Armenia’s invasion of Azerbaijan in the early 1990s.
In 1993, Türkiye co-sponsored a UN Security Council resolution calling on Armenian forces to withdraw from the Azerbaijani region of Kelbajar, which they had occupied during the fighting.
Later that year, diplomatic relations between the two countries ended, and Türkiye closed its border with Armenia. Since then, Turkish-Armenian diplomatic engagement has been two steps forward and one step back.
Before liberating all of its territory in September 2023, Azerbaijan first regained much of the territory taken from it by Armenia in the 1990s during the Second Karabakh War in 2020.
When Kelbajar returned to Azerbaijani control in November 2020, many wondered whether this could pave the way for renewed diplomatic engagement between Türkiye and Armenia.
However, beyond the specific issue of Kelbajar, Ankara has consistently maintained that genuine negotiations with Yerevan could only take place once Armenia and Azerbaijan normalised relations and signed a peace agreement.
Now that a peace treaty appears to be on track for ratification, new possibilities may be emerging for Türkiye -Armenia relations.
The big picture
It should be noted that the benefits of Armenia–Azerbaijan normalisation are not limited to Ankara and Baku. They also extend to Yerevan.
Armenia is a poor country, and over the past three and a half decades of the frozen conflict over Karabakh, it has been excluded from many of the region’s major energy and transport infrastructure projects.
It is difficult to quantify exactly how much foreign investment Armenia has lost as a result, but it is safe to say that billions of dollars in potential projects have bypassed the country because of its unresolved conflict with Azerbaijan.
Now that peace appears within reach and Armenia is on the verge of having normal relations with all its neighbours, it will be well-positioned to participate in new energy and trade infrastructure initiatives.
Over time, this could bring substantial benefits to Armenia’s economy.
For Türkiye, the Armenia–Azerbaijan peace agreement represents more than just new infrastructure — it marks a strategic opportunity to cooperate with the South Caucasus in a way that promotes stability, economic growth, and regional connectivity.
By complementing existing transit corridors, opening the door to normalisation with Armenia, and linking the Turkic world more closely than ever before, Türkiye can help usher in a new era in the South Caucasus — one where cooperation replaces conflict and shared prosperity becomes the foundation for lasting peace.