July paper in Nature Communications with following abstract:

Transition pathways for Europe to achieve carbon neutrality emphasize the need for a massive deployment of solar and wind energy. Global cost optimization would lead to installing most of the renewable capacity in a few resource-rich countries, but policy decisions could prioritize other factors. We investigate the effect of energy independence on Europe’s energy system design. We show that self-sufficiency constraints lead to a more equitable distribution of costs and installed capacities across Europe. However, countries that typically depend on energy imports face cost increases of up to 150% to ensure that they cover their demand on an annual basis. Self-sufficiency particularly favors solar photovoltaic energy, and with declining PV module prices, alternative configurations like inverter dimensioning and horizontal tracking are beneficial enough to be part of the optimal solution for many countries. Moreover, we find that very high solar and wind annual installation rates are required, but they seem feasible considering recent historical trends.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-61492-9

by Sol3dweller

1 comment

  1. The article is open-access, but for the hasty some citation from the findings section:

    >The findings show that overall system costs increase by just 2.1% under a self-sufficiency constraint, but costs can rise up to 150% for countries that were net-importers in an unconstrained scenario. Self-sufficiency also promotes a more uniform land use distribution among countries, reducing potential social acceptance issues. Therefore, pursuing energy security alongside carbon neutrality in Europe could be achieved with limited total cost increases but significant national disparities.
    >
    >Solar PV is projected to contribute the largest share of electricity generation (57%), with further capacity expansions necessary under self-sufficiency due to its low cost and widespread resource availability. From a system perspective, horizontal single-axis tracking (HSAT) is favored as it extends solar generation hours, making it suitable for countries aiming for self-sufficiency. Additionally, using lower inverter capacities than the DC capacity of solar panels is cost-effective, with DC/AC ratios of 1.7 and 1.5 commonly chosen for Central and Southern Europe. The findings suggest revisions in macro-energy models, for which we recommend: (1) the inclusion of HSAT, (2) proper representation of inverter sizing, and (3) separate modeling for distributed PV systems versus utility-scale plants19. In contrast, non-optimal solar orientations or delta configuration can be excluded since their value regarding displacing electricity generation in time diminishes when the system includes batteries.

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