Catch the Current episode 30: Looking for signs of life in seafood amid Trump’s trade war

The symptoms are all there: sluggishness, lack of confidence. 

US president Donald Trump’s tariffs are taking their toll on the seafood market — but there are signs of life!

Catch the Current hosts Amanda Buckle and Lorin Castiglione welcome Undercurrent News price analyst Gary Morrison to the pod this week to help check the vitals on the tilapia, shrimp and snow crab markets.

Plus — what was that in the sky? Amanda and Lorin talk about the unique problem that some fishermen in the US state of Florida face. 

And be sure to join us in a walk down memory lane as we visit the old seafood chain Arthur Treacher’s Fish & Chips.

Thank you to our sponsor: Wisefish.

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Don’t have time to listen? Find a full transcript of season 1, episode 30 of Catch the Current below:

Amanda Buckle (AB): You’re listening to Catch the Current, the coolest seafood podcast out there, from the team at Undercurrent News, your trusted source for seafood prices, news and data. I’m Amanda Buckle.

Lorin Castiglione (LC): And I’m Lorin Castiglione.

AB: Before we dive in, a quick shoutout to our sponsor Wisefish. With over 30 years in the seafood industry, they’re powering aquaculture, fisheries, processors and seafood sales with one integrated platform that makes managing complex operations simpler. Check them out at wisefish.com/catch-the-current.

LC: So some good ol’ M&A news was able to knock US president Donald Trump and his trade war from our top stories this week. Canadian lobster and snow crab giant Champlain Seafood announced Wednesday (Aug. 13) that it has acquired BA Richard, a lobster processor based in New Brunswick, Canada.

And maybe the most interesting thing about the deal is that it comes as Champlain itself seeks a buyer.

AB: Yes, you could say the timing is peculiar.

Undercurrent reported just a few days earlier that a sale teaser was being circulated for Champlain Seafood, which operates five processing plants in Atlantic Canada and four lobster holding facilities, in addition to two in the US.

The document, named Project Atlantic, is from Antarctica Advisors and the National Bank of Canada, and does not name the company. However, Undercurrent News confirmed that the sale teaser is for Champlain. According to the document, the company has over CAD 550 million in revenue and CAD 40m in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA). That’s all in Canadian dollars.

UCN also reported earlier this month that Canadian food giant Premium Brands Holdings confirmed it is in “active” talks to acquire a CAD 500m turnover seafood company, which it did not name.

Putting our detective caps on here …. Premium Brands was in talks to acquire Champlain in 2022. That deal was ultimately put on ice though as snow crab prices crashed. 

The speculation now is that Premium could be looking — again — to add Champlain to its already extensive shellfish holdings, which include 50% of Clearwater Seafoods and all of Westmorland Fisheries and Ready Seafood Company, which are large Canadian and US lobster processors.

But just to reiterate, it’s speculation right now. Other sources told UCN that there are other Canadian and US seafood companies in the market which Premium could be in talks with.

Link in the show notes for more there.

LC: In other Canadian seafood business news, value-added supplier High Liner Foods opened up in its second quarter earnings statement late last week about its recent acquisition of Mrs. Paul’s and Van de Kamp’s from Conagra. 

High Liner only closed on the deal for the Conagra seafood brands on June 30 at the adjusted purchase price of $42.4m. CEO Paul Jewer said in the earnings statement, and I quote:

“We are excited about the opportunities ahead as we continue to execute well, leverage our diversified global supply chain and integrate our two new brands, Mrs. Paul’s and Van de Kamp’s, unlocking synergies and expanding our footprint in the US retail market.”

Of course, you can’t ignore the uncertain environment in all of this. And — no surprise here — Jewer did note that the company anticipates operating challenges posed by tariffs to continue into the second half of the year. However, he said that High Liner is still aggressively pursuing targeted strategies to support volume growth while preserving margin to deliver year-over-year adjusted EBITDA growth.

Jewer added that the acquisition of the Conagra brands enhances High Liner’s product portfolio and provides the company with new opportunities for innovation and market expansion, ultimately unlocking long-term, sustainable growth opportunities.

Be sure to read the full story from UCN’s Tom Seaman.

AB: Now back to our weekly tariff updates. As seems to be the recurring theme here, US president Donald Trump threw another tariff-related curveball this week when he signed an executive order Monday moving China’s trade deal deadline to reduce combined tariffs on the country’s goods from 170% to 55%. It moved the date from Aug. 12 to Nov. 10. Trump noted on his Truth Social account that all other elements of the agreement remain the same.

LC: This is something I’ve been keeping an eye on in particular as China was the US’ largest source of frozen tilapia last year, sending it over 121,000 metric tons worth $389m.

AB: Undercurrent’s Lewis Hu reported this week that US buyers have been expressing cautious interest amid the ongoing trade challenges. But Trump’s announcement Monday has done little to boost confidence within China’s tilapia supply chain. 

One source told Undercurrent that he heard inventories are high, putting prices under pressure. He said it will take more time to work through them, but that the positive side is that some buyers have started making inquiries — albeit small.

LC: That is true. On the US wholesale front, frozen Chinese tilapia fillets saw a notable across-the-board drop this week — all moisture-added and chem-free sizes down about $0.10 per pound, which works out to roughly a 3% decline. This is being driven by lower replacement costs in China and a big push from processors there to get product moving in what’s still a very sluggish demand environment.

Here in the US, inventories remain high. Retail and foodservice demand haven’t really picked up, so buyers are all still hesitant to take on new volumes. Chinese exporters are offering delivered duty paid (DDP) deals and other incentives, but even those aggressive terms haven’t generated a rush of new orders.

At origin, farm-gate prices have been down in general but this week they are steady in Guangdong and Hainan, though large processors have inched up their purchase prices slightly after peak harvest season. That’s helped set a tentative floor for raw material costs, but the sector is still dealing with regulatory pressures, earlier oversupply and prolonged below-breakeven returns.

On the trade front that we just talked about, president Trump extended the US-China temporary trade deal for 90 more days, keeping the combined tariff rate for Chinese tilapia at 55% That’s a big relief from the 245% that was threatened if talks broke down — but since the market had already priced in at 55%, it hasn’t exactly boosted confidence. Demand-side challenges remain the bigger hurdle there.

Looking ahead, there are some signs of life — a few US buyers are making inquiries, which could point to incremental demand if prices keep adjusting. But with cold storage still full, retail movement soft, and tariffs hanging over the market, any price recovery is likely to be slow and uneven.

AB: I like that — “signs of life.”

We talked a little bit about shrimp last week when Trump raised the tariff rate of India — the US’s biggest source for shrimp — from 25% to 50%. But UCN price analyst Gary Morrison was conveniently on vacation so we couldn’t get his insight on the matter.

Gary, you can run but you can’t hide. So thanks for joining us this week. Now, before you tell us how tariffs are changing the shrimp game, tell us where you were and tell us about all the seafood you ate.

Gary Morrison (GM): So I was in the Mediterranean area, so the home of some great tuna farms and some sea bass and sea bream. But unfortunately, I didn’t eat too much. I was indulging on some of the American food. They had pizza.

LC: Gary, get out of here.

GM: No, but I did eat a lot of shrimp and tuna. I mean, it’s probably what I eat typically.

LC: All right, there you go.

AB: Back to the shrimp game in the US, how are tariffs changing shrimp right now?

GM: Tariffs are certainly firming prices. If you look at the US wholesale market again this week, it reset higher, and it was pretty broad and deep. There was no category that was spared. I think the reality of these higher prices are setting in.

But what I will say is there’s really some unsettledness in the market. There’s some differences in opinion on really what’s happening. If you look at Latin origin shrimp, so Ecuador producers are really raising prices quickly.

They’re using that tariff advantage because they’re much lower than a lot of the Asian origin sources, and they’re raising them almost to the tariff rates that the Asian countries got. And I think it’s almost to a fault because importers are now shifting back to India.

I had one large importer tell me that the import prices from India, even inclusive of the tariff, is pretty much the same as Ecuador prices now.

So I think if you raise them a little bit too quickly, you might see some trade flows start to shift. And where importers cannot really origin shop — those cooked shrimp, those black tiger shrimp, freshwater, they’re certainly, you know, prices are rising pretty significantly as well.

But there’s a lot of other dynamics at play. It’s not only tariffs, right?

We talked about it on one of the previous pods. Specifically in Ecuador, there’s a really big drive for peeled and deveined, the value-added shrimp that US consumers want. So the raw material competition down there for the head-on shell-on raw material is pretty fierce.

So that’s one of the main drivers of driving prices at source higher. So also contributing to why they’re raising prices to US importers, because there’s just not that much product down there now, because it’s all being used to be peeled. Asia, we talked about it again, large increases in black tiger, cooked, P&D, again, for obvious reasons, the US consumer wants convenience.

But I think really what it’s going to do is shift trade flows. I have talked to quite a few importers that are going to other countries that are not typically sources or large sources for the US.

I’m talking Mexico, Guatemala, Peru. So they’re going down there to check out the farmed operations to see if they can become a partner, and if the quality and consistency meets their levels of standards.

And that can shift some trade flows if you start seeing some of these lower tariff countries step into the game.

AB: And it’s crazy because you cover so many markets. On the opposite side of things, looking at snow crab, another market you cover. You talked about shrimp being so heavily impacted by tariffs, and then snow crab, on the other hand, not so much.

GM: Not so much.

You know, most seafood products from Canada, where we get a majority of our snow crab, is not tariffed under the USMCA. So they’re not contending with that same cost structure increases that the importers of shrimp are.

What they are contending with is supply constraints. So we’re nearing the end of the season for all the major fisheries.

You’re talking Norway, the Gulf of St. Lawrence, Newfoundland and Labrador region. So meaningful replacement is quite a few months out. I think Norway is the next one to start — about five months, Canada, a couple of months after that.

So we’re really just at the end of the season now. And 4 oz and up, 5-8 oz, really, really tight and wanted. So you’re seeing prices firm across the board and all origins on those sizes.

And that’s spilled over into some of the 8-10s and 10 and up, because if the demand continues to be strong, and there’s not enough of those main sizes, retailers and food service operators will shift to other sizes to meet that interest of their consumers. And snow crab is still a pretty valuable item relative to some of the other crab species.

When you look at red king crab, you know, you’re talking almost triple digits per pound. So the snow crab is a good alternative for people that want some sort of crab offering at the retail or foodservice level.

AB: Thanks, Gary. More insights from your favorite seafood price reporters can be found on undercurrentnews.com.

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Now onto some lighter news.

LC: Finally. What do you got for us?

AB: Space… 

But before I dive into this … did you see the lights? The weird lights in the sky the other night?

LC: You know, it’s so funny. Gregg brought Christian out because he couldn’t sleep. It was 10:30 at night. There was a meteor shower happening. They didn’t see anything, so they came in. The next morning… I guess they missed the … what was it? A space shuttle or something? They missed it by like minutes.

AB: Oh my gosh. That’s so funny. So I didn’t even realize it. I live in only my seafood bubble and in pop culture news, so I didn’t see about the meteor shower.

I randomly just went out. The kids were missing a stuffed animal or something that was lost in my car. I went out to grab it and then I see this thing in the sky.

LC: You saw it?

AB: Yes! I immediately called for my husband because he’s been telling me that aliens are coming in November, and I thought they might’ve been here early. So I started yelling inside.

I’m like, “Tom, the aliens are here!”

LC: Do we need to do a mental wellness check on your husband, Amanda?

AB: I’m going to link… I don’t know what he’s talking about in November, but I’m going to link to what we saw in the sky in New Jersey the other night.

It was truly wild and it could have been a UFO. They’re saying on the news that it was a rocket launch from United Launch Alliance out in Florida and we’re in New Jersey. So it’s really crazy to see a rocket launch, right?

LC: Anyway, how are you tying this back into seafood?

AB: Oh, right, right, right. That’s why you’re here, Lorin, to get me back on track. So we’re always reporting about different problems that fishermen face, whether it’s someone stealing your traps, dangerous conditions, offshore wind.

Fishermen in the US state of Florida have a unique problem in their waters, and that’s rocket debris.

LC: There we go. 

AB: It’s all coming together now. So like I said, if you’re not familiar with Florida’s east coast, there’s an area that’s referred to as the “Space Coast.” It’s near the Kennedy Space Center and the Cape Canaveral Space Force Station.

So NASA United launch Alliance and SpaceX, they all launch rockets at the space force station there. And when they do their surrounding waters are closed, which ultimately disrupts fishing trips. One fisherman told a local news outlet that it wasn’t a big deal when there were like 15, 20, or even 25 launches a year going on.

And I can’t tell you right now how many a year occur, but just to give you an idea about SpaceX just alone, has just launched its 100th mission of this week. So I get what he’s saying.

You go from 15, 20, 25 closures… that’s a lot of lost wages. But they say on top of that, when they are finally able to get into the water, their gear is getting damaged from this rocket debris that’s littering the ocean floor.

So I thought that was interesting, right?

LC: That is very interesting.

AB: Final story of the week. And I will once again, start this off with a question here, so please, Lorin, help me get back on track a little bit. Do you remember Arthur Treacher’s Fish&Chips?

LC: Should I? I don’t.

AB: No, fair enough.

 It was in 1969. I forget how old you are.

LC: How dare you? How dare you?

AB: I remember a little bit of it. I have this memory of going to the mall with my mom on like during Lent. And I remember getting Nathan’s hot dogs and my mom getting fish and chips. So I’m assuming  … you’ll see why I’m assuming these two are … I’m assuming I did have an Arthur Treacher’s Fish&Chips experience, but it was a popular fish and chips chain.

The story is really interesting. It was founded in 1969 by Dave Thomas.

LC: From Wendy’s.

AB: Yeah. Dave Thomas from Wendy’s. Isn’t that cool?

LC: Yeah.

AB: And did you also know he’s a fellow New Jerseyan?

LC: I did not know that. Yeah.

AB: From Atlantic City.

Dave Thomas, the founder of fast food chain Wendy’s, was one of the co-founders of Arthur Treacher’s. It changed hands multiple times over the years. It was even owned by Mrs. Paul’s Seafood at one point.

Everyone loved it. But then the cod wars happened. A dispute between Iceland and the United Kingdom in the late 1970s that developed over fishing rights in the North Atlantic, resulting in a major cod supply crisis that skyrocketed prices.

Arthur Treacher’s was sourcing North Atlantic cod for its fish and chips. They switched to pollock as the cod wars made supply expensive and unpredictable. Customers weren’t happy with that change and they went from having over 800 locations across the US down to three.

So that’s why, Lorin, you do not know Arthur Treacher’s.

LC: Thank you.

AB: Circling back here. The reason why we’re talking about it now is that a comeback has been looming. A few years ago, in 2021, iconic hotdog brand, Nathan’s Famous announced it would be reviving the seafood restaurant as a ghost kitchen concept.

Select Nathan’s Famous locations also serve some Arthur Treacher’s menu items. They wanted to keep expanding on the brick and mortar front and bring back … I don’t know if they’ll ever get to 800 locations again … but they wanted to try to rebuild this. That has stalled.

Right now the three locations that are open are in the U S state of Ohio. A fourth location was supposed to open this month in an existing fish and chip shop known as Marino’s in the state’s capital of Columbus. But this week, the prospective sellers said the deal could not be completed.

Isn’t that a bummer?

LC: That is a bummer.

AB: It brought back memories though, seeing Arthur Treacher’s. You’ll have to look it up. I bet if you see it, it’ll maybe trigger some memories for you.

LC: Well, I’m happy for you.

So that does it for us this week. Visit undercurrentnews.com for more access to these stories and tune in next week as we welcome back editorial director Cliff White from his vacation to Scotland and grill him all about the seafood he ate there.

He better do better than Gary because Gary’s Croatian seafood reviews were a little disappointing. I thought he would have done better than that.

So Cliff, the pressure’s on.

LC: Yeah. Totally disappointing.

AB: From roe to plate, Wisefish supports seafood businesses across aquaculture, fisheries, processing, and sales with one integrated platform. Trusted by companies around the world like Tassal, Nils Sperre, and others. Wisefish helps control costs, improve margins and enable smarter financial decisions, replacing spreadsheets and siloed systems. Learn more at wisefish.com/catch-the-current.