One response for US trading partners is to look elsewhere. The UK has reason to get closer again to the European Union. After years of delays and obstacles in talks between the EU and India, the Trump effect seemed to spark momentum into its talks with post-Brexit Britain.

Canada faces the biggest hit from tariffs, as its economy has become so integrated, so it is looking to a future with a lot less US in it.

But there’s another economic effect from countries which have lost markets in the world’s biggest economy, leaving them with surplus product and capacity.

The secondary effect will be felt as goods are re-directed into alternative markets.

With steel already established as the Chinese export that was top of the list of US targets for tariffs, other countries, including the UK, have taken steps to stop China dumping its excess steel in other markets at prices that undercut domestic production.

With steel already established as the Chinese export that was top of the list of US targets for tariffs, other countries including the UK have taken steps to stop China dumping its excess steel in other markets at prices that undercut domestic production.

Not many of us buy steel directly, so we will not feel the impact directly. We do buy salmon, however, and that is already seeing the effects of markets being distorted and trade redirected.

Scotland has a premium product that sells into the US market. The trade figures for the first half of 2025, released on Thursday, showed exports to the US more than doubled since last year.

At £190m exports in six months, that puts US imports close to those of France, the biggest importer of Scottish salmon. However, that may be a temporary distortion of trade patterns, front-loading imports for freezing ahead of tariffs being introduced.

Having a much longer shelf-life, Scotch whisky exporters have shifted stock into the US since Donald Trump’s election victory last November.

The trade figures released on Thursday showed a big surge across categories of goods in the first quarter of the year, and then a big slump since April.

Scottish salmon exporters face that 10% US tariff, while Norway faces one at 15%. So Scottish salmon gets an advantage over Norwegian, a differential that will also distort other markets.

The US produces its own salmon, but not much of the Atlantic species. Half of its consumption of that has come from Chile.

Assuming a 10% tariff on this, the trade body for the Chilean aquaculture industry forecasts a trade loss of more than £1bn.