A review by the international rating agency Fitch Ratings of the impact of the migration wave on Poland indicates that most Ukrainian refugees may remain in the country even if a potential ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia were to occur. Fitch cites Reuters materials and notes that there is strong integration of the displaced into the Polish labor market.
“They have integrated very well into the Polish labor market. So even if tomorrow a ceasefire is announced, we don’t see many Ukrainian refugees returning to Ukraine. We are almost certain that a substantial portion of these people will stay in Poland and contribute to the growth of the Polish labor market and GDP and, of course, to other macroeconomic and fiscal indicators”
– Reuters analyst for Fitch Ratings on Poland, Milan Trajkovic
Economic forecasts and budget impact
According to Fitch, more than a million refugees who found asylum in Poland have strengthened the labor market and supported the momentum of economic growth. This trend, according to experts’ estimates, could continue.
Analysts forecast the country’s gross domestic product to grow by about 3% in 2025–2026 and around 3.1% in 2027. The government also expects more optimistic figures – about 3.4% in the coming years, 3.5% and 3% respectively for the three periods.
Additionally, experts note that economic growth will help stabilize the state budget and reduce the burden of social programs, even if the budget deficit remains high. The government’s plans are to reduce the deficit to below 3% of GDP by 2028.
“This is the fastest-growing European economy in decades. And… one thing you know about Poland is that Poland will keep growing”
– Milan Trajkovic, Fitch analyst
If these forecasts come true, Poland will maintain its status as one of Europe’s leading destinations for Ukrainian displaced people, while also supporting economic growth and social stability in the region.